Florida International vs. Delaware

2 of 8 top Polymarket traders hold Delaware (25%) · Delaware at 63¢ · $19K held · ends Nov 14

Florida International38¢Delaware62¢Ends Sat, Nov 14, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Delaware

Consensus Traders

Delaware 25%

Total Value

$19.5K

Combined PnL

-$196.32

Smart Money Entry

63¢ → 62.5¢

-1% since entry · 2 traders

Research grade

NeutralDelaware at 63%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Delaware

2 of 8 top traders (25%)6 hold an outcome priced under 50%5 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

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Outcome Probabilities

Florida International38%

Delaware63%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Delaware2 traders

Total Value$12.4K

Total Shares19,771

Combined PnL-$98.86

Florida International6 traders

Total Value$7.1K

Total Shares19,492

Combined PnL-$97.46

Delaware — 25%Florida International — 75%

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
KE keeptheblueflagflyinghigh	Delawareavg 63¢	$12.4K	$12.3K	-$98.54	50% 2543-2505 (5048)
DO Donkey14CTR	Florida Internationalavg 37¢	$6.4K	$6.3K	-$86.31	32% 7-15 (22)
65 6512395314597884CTR	Florida Internationalavg 37¢	$740	$730	-$10	50% 3807-3775 (7582)
PA Pan9XCTR<$100	Florida Internationalavg 37¢	$55.5	$54.75	-$0.75	50% 1594-1620 (3214)
TH thatsabing0<$100	Delawareavg 64¢	$40.77	$40.45	-$0.32	62% 216-130 (346)
FL FlaznorpCTR<$100	Florida Internationalavg 37¢	$20.6	$20.32	-$0.28	49% 3959-4107 (8066)
EF efntrickCTR<$100	Florida Internationalavg 37¢	$7.4	$7.3	-$0.1	44% 87-112 (199)
FE ferdinand2CTR<$100	Florida Internationalavg 37¢	$1.72	$1.69	-$0.02	48% 2157-2304 (4461)

keeptheblueflagflyinghigh

Delaware

Invested

$12,415.62

Value

$12.3K

PnL

-$98.54

Record

50%

2543-2505 (5048)

Donkey14CTR

Florida International

Invested

$6,386.99

Value

$6.3K

PnL

-$86.31

Record

32%

7-15 (22)

6512395314597884CTR

Florida International

Invested

$740

Value

$730

PnL

-$10

Record

50%

3807-3775 (7582)

Pan9XCTR<$100

Florida International

Invested

$55.5

Value

$54.75

PnL

-$0.75

Record

50%

1594-1620 (3214)

thatsabing0<$100

Delaware

Invested

$40.77

Value

$40.45

PnL

-$0.32

Record

62%

216-130 (346)

FlaznorpCTR<$100

Florida International

Invested

$20.6

Value

$20.32

PnL

-$0.28

Record

49%

3959-4107 (8066)

efntrickCTR<$100

Florida International

Invested

$7.4

Value

$7.3

PnL

-$0.1

Record

44%

87-112 (199)

ferdinand2CTR<$100

Florida International

Invested

$1.72

Value

$1.69

PnL

-$0.02

Record

48%

2157-2304 (4461)

Research grade

NeutralDelaware at 63%

Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

Smart Money Signal

Delaware

2 of 8 top traders (25%)6 hold an outcome priced under 50%5 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

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EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Delaware wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance64.7%

62.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.2¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$54.66

Max Loss

-$100.00

154.7

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.