Florida Atlantic vs. Tulsa: O/U 71.5

5 of 11 top Polymarket traders hold Under (45%) · Under at 51¢ · $3K held · ended Nov 15

Over50¢Under50¢Ended Sun, Nov 15, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Under

Consensus Traders

Under 45%

1 arb excluded

Total Value

$2.6K

Combined PnL

-$177.35

Smart Money Entry

53.8¢ → 50.5¢

-6% since entry · 5 traders

Research grade

NeutralUnder at 51%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Side priced 50–60¢Full year, out of sample: 0.50–0.70 lost −2.9 % a trade (n 23,546, 95 % CI −3.9 to −1.9).

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Under

5 of 11 top traders (45%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed6 hold an outcome priced under 50%8 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

Over50%

Under51%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Under5 traders

Total Value$1.5K

Total Shares3,067

Combined PnL-$182.67

Over6 traders

Total Value$173.5

Total Shares363

Combined PnL+$5.32

Under — 45%Over — 55%

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

3 traders

Top 2 hold 98%

Freshness

Fresh

4h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

38% of non-arb traders are on Under. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 98% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

ctrOver 75% · 4

Diverging

Hand-pickedOver 100% · 1

Diverging

Top 1000Over 63% · 8

Diverging

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
PR primm	Underavg 57¢	$1.2K	$1.1K	-$184.46	59% 1044-726 (1770)
RN1ARB<$100	Underavg 56¢	$948.94	$967.69	+$18.75	55% 5703-4745 (10448)
└ Under leg	Underavg 56¢	$562.8	$567.82	+$5.02
└ Over leg	Overavg 42¢	$386.14	$399.86	+$13.72
EdZachary	Underavg 46¢	$341.46	$341.46	-$0	10% 14-120 (134)
NA NatoAlfistaCTR	Overavg 47.8¢	$93.74	$100.94	+$7.2	43% 216-282 (498)
MU Multicoloured-Serf<$100	Underavg 45¢	$53.17	$54.35	+$1.18	48% 670-715 (1385)
38 38791873984189CTR<$100	Overavg 42¢	$29.69	$30.04	+$0.35	47% 3551-3935 (7486)
LR lryyyCTR<$100	Overavg 32¢	$10.18	$21.63	+$11.45	46% 877-1050 (1927)
0X 0x99F0d31fdced5B3A0e5Ee2867730A6644a6C9495-1779037126382CTR<$100	Overavg 54¢	$28.08	$16.64	-$11.44	49% 389-413 (802)
PA Pan9X<$100	Underavg 56¢	$25.99	$14.52	+$0.41	50% 1827-1860 (3687)
HO HomeRunHazard<$100	Underavg 45¢	$9	$9.2	+$0.2	56% 3778-2937 (6715)
FaroeseNationalistCTR<$100	Overavg 53¢	$5.64	$3.4	-$2.23	52% 26-24 (50)
NO NotJumpCTR<$100	Overavg 42¢	$0.85	$0.84	-$0.01	51% 970-935 (1905)

primm

Under

Invested

$1,236.4

Value

$1.1K

PnL

-$184.46

Record

59%

1044-726 (1770)

RN1ARB<$100

Under

Invested

$948.94

Value

$967.69

PnL

+$18.75

Record

55%

5703-4745 (10448)

Both legs:

Under$562.856¢+$5.02

Over$386.1442¢+$13.72

EdZachary

Under

Invested

$341.46

Value

$341.46

PnL

-$0

Record

10%

14-120 (134)

NatoAlfistaCTR

Over

Invested

$93.74

Value

$100.94

PnL

+$7.2

Record

43%

216-282 (498)

Multicoloured-Serf<$100

Under

Invested

$53.17

Value

$54.35

PnL

+$1.18

Record

48%

670-715 (1385)

38791873984189CTR<$100

Over

Invested

$29.69

Value

$30.04

PnL

+$0.35

Record

47%

3551-3935 (7486)

lryyyCTR<$100

Over

Invested

$10.18

Value

$21.63

PnL

+$11.45

Record

46%

877-1050 (1927)

0x99F0d31fdced5B3A0e5Ee2867730A6644a6C9495-1779037126382CTR<$100

Over

Invested

$28.08

Value

$16.64

PnL

-$11.44

Record

49%

389-413 (802)

Pan9X<$100

Under

Invested

$25.99

Value

$14.52

PnL

+$0.41

Record

50%

1827-1860 (3687)

HomeRunHazard<$100

Under

Invested

Value

$9.2

PnL

+$0.2

Record

56%

3778-2937 (6715)

FaroeseNationalistCTR<$100

Over

Invested

$5.64

Value

$3.4

PnL

-$2.23

Record

52%

26-24 (50)

NotJumpCTR<$100

Over

Invested

$0.85

Value

$0.84

PnL

-$0.01

Record

51%

970-935 (1905)

Research grade

NeutralUnder at 51%

Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Side priced 50–60¢Full year, out of sample: 0.50–0.70 lost −2.9 % a trade (n 23,546, 95 % CI −3.9 to −1.9).

Smart Money Signal

Under

5 of 11 top traders (45%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed6 hold an outcome priced under 50%8 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

3 traders

Top 2 hold 98%

Freshness

Fresh

4h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

38% of non-arb traders are on Under. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 98% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

ctrOver 75% · 4

Diverging

Hand-pickedOver 100% · 1

Diverging

Top 1000Over 63% · 8

Diverging

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Under wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance52.7%

50.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.2¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$89.58

Max Loss

-$100.00

189.6

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.