Smart money holds the underdog side

Most tracked traders hold Florida Atlantic, while the market favors Tulsa (55%). 7 of 10 traders hold an outcome priced under 50%.

Spread: Tulsa (-5.5)

7 of 10 top Polymarket traders hold Florida Atlantic (70%) · Florida Atlantic at 46¢ · $2K held · ends Nov 15

Tulsa55¢Florida Atlantic45¢Ends Sun, Nov 15, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Florida Atlantic

Consensus Traders

Florida Atlantic 70%

Total Value

$1.8K

Combined PnL

$7.7

Smart Money Entry

45.8¢ → 45.5¢

-1% since entry · 7 traders

Research grade

NeutralFlorida Atlantic at 46%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Side priced 30–50¢Full year, out of sample: 0.30–0.50 lost −4.8 % a trade (n 16,830, 95 % CI −6.6 to −3.1), worse than the plain consensus.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Florida Atlantic

7 of 10 top traders (70%)Underdog side (market favors Tulsa 55%)7 hold an outcome priced under 50%6 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

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Outcome Probabilities

Tulsa55%

Florida Atlantic46%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Tulsa3 traders

Total Value$806.08

Total Shares1,507

Combined PnL-$7.09

Florida Atlantic7 traders

Total Value$979.12

Total Shares2,106

Combined PnL+$14.79

Tulsa — 30%Florida Atlantic — 70%

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
0X 0xb4F978BE63cDF75554b0B46a4262a6dB597cc9A7-1779258330186	Tulsaavg 54¢	$752.11	$745.15	-$6.96	49% 536-565 (1101)
38 38791873984189CTR	Florida Atlanticavg 46¢	$617.31	$624.02	+$6.71	48% 3205-3505 (6710)
0X 0x2c335066FE58fe9237c3d3Dc7b275C2a034a0563-1759935795465CTR	Florida Atlanticavg 46¢	$131.09	$132.52	+$1.42	51% 3869-3651 (7520)
NM NM-PCTR	Florida Atlanticavg 45¢	$108.57	$112.19	+$3.62	59% 3763-2587 (6350)
GC GC-PCTR<$100	Florida Atlanticavg 45¢	$78.75	$81.38	+$2.63	37% 353-603 (956)
0X 0x99F0d31fdced5B3A0e5Ee2867730A6644a6C9495-1779037126382<$100	Tulsaavg 54¢	$37.8	$37.45	-$0.35	48% 286-304 (590)
VeryLucky888<$100	Tulsaavg 53¢	$23.26	$23.48	+$0.22	53% 1343-1170 (2513)
VE VenusianCTR<$100	Florida Atlanticavg 46¢	$16.48	$16.66	+$0.18	36% 945-1666 (2611)
SE sentrioCTR<$100	Florida Atlanticavg 46¢	$7.59	$7.68	+$0.08	42% 991-1360 (2351)
GH ghorrockCTR<$100	Florida Atlanticavg 45¢	$4.54	$4.69	+$0.15	52% 1716-1565 (3281)

0xb4F978BE63cDF75554b0B46a4262a6dB597cc9A7-1779258330186

Tulsa

Invested

$752.11

Value

$745.15

PnL

-$6.96

Record

49%

536-565 (1101)

38791873984189CTR

Florida Atlantic

Invested

$617.31

Value

$624.02

PnL

+$6.71

Record

48%

3205-3505 (6710)

0x2c335066FE58fe9237c3d3Dc7b275C2a034a0563-1759935795465CTR

Florida Atlantic

Invested

$131.09

Value

$132.52

PnL

+$1.42

Record

51%

3869-3651 (7520)

NM-PCTR

Florida Atlantic

Invested

$108.57

Value

$112.19

PnL

+$3.62

Record

59%

3763-2587 (6350)

GC-PCTR<$100

Florida Atlantic

Invested

$78.75

Value

$81.38

PnL

+$2.63

Record

37%

353-603 (956)

0x99F0d31fdced5B3A0e5Ee2867730A6644a6C9495-1779037126382<$100

Tulsa

Invested

$37.8

Value

$37.45

PnL

-$0.35

Record

48%

286-304 (590)

VeryLucky888<$100

Tulsa

Invested

$23.26

Value

$23.48

PnL

+$0.22

Record

53%

1343-1170 (2513)

VenusianCTR<$100

Florida Atlantic

Invested

$16.48

Value

$16.66

PnL

+$0.18

Record

36%

945-1666 (2611)

sentrioCTR<$100

Florida Atlantic

Invested

$7.59

Value

$7.68

PnL

+$0.08

Record

42%

991-1360 (2351)

ghorrockCTR<$100

Florida Atlantic

Invested

$4.54

Value

$4.69

PnL

+$0.15

Record

52%

1716-1565 (3281)

Research grade

NeutralFlorida Atlantic at 46%

Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Side priced 30–50¢Full year, out of sample: 0.30–0.50 lost −4.8 % a trade (n 16,830, 95 % CI −6.6 to −3.1), worse than the plain consensus.

Smart Money Signal

Florida Atlantic

7 of 10 top traders (70%)Underdog side (market favors Tulsa 55%)7 hold an outcome priced under 50%6 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Florida Atlantic wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance47.7%

45.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.2¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$109.45

Max Loss

-$100.00

209.5

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.