Spread: Kentucky (-4.5)

5 of 12 top Polymarket traders hold Florida (42%) · Florida at 79¢ · $12K held · ended Nov 14

Kentucky22¢Florida78¢Ended Sat, Nov 14, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Florida

Consensus Traders

Florida 42%

Total Value

$11.7K

Combined PnL

$37.48

Smart Money Entry

59.5¢ → 78.5¢

+32% since entry · 5 traders

Research grade

NeutralFlorida at 79%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Florida

5 of 12 top traders (42%)7 hold an outcome priced under 50%4 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

Kentucky22%

Florida79%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Florida5 traders

Total Value$9.1K

Total Shares11,774

Combined PnL+$2.1K

Kentucky7 traders

Total Value$2.6K

Total Shares11,491

Combined PnL$-2.0K

Florida — 42%Kentucky — 58%

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Surging

-33 pts consensus

Breadth

5 traders

Top 2 hold 97%

Freshness

Fresh

2h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

42% of non-arb traders are on Florida. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 97% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

ctrFlorida 67% · 6

Aligned

Hand-pickedKentucky 100% · 1

Diverging

Top 1000Kentucky 58% · 12

Diverging

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
PR primm	Floridaavg 59.6¢	$5.1K	$6.6K	+$1.5K	59% 1044-726 (1770)
VI vibing123	Floridaavg 60.2¢	$1.7K	$2.2K	+$483.39	62% 1157-711 (1868)
KE keeptheblueflagflyinghighCTR	Kentuckyavg 40¢	$1.8K	$1.0K	-$790.63	50% 2685-2651 (5336)
RN1CTR	Kentuckyavg 42.8¢	$1.6K	$853.94	-$762.08	55% 5703-4745 (10448)
38 38791873984189CTR	Kentuckyavg 39.2¢	$1.5K	$381.38	-$246.4	47% 3551-3935 (7486)
0X 0x228B8d11EBa89BF1c554f8879a9293B7106DaF4c-1765442354872CTR	Kentuckyavg 39.5¢	$400.56	$228.29	-$172.27	55% 1770-1448 (3218)
SN SnakeBall	Floridaavg 53¢	$172.02	$195.39	+$23.38	47% 1065-1216 (2281)
65 6512395314597884CTR<$100	Kentuckyavg 43¢	$86	$78	-$8	50% 3954-3949 (7903)
PA Pan9XCTR	Kentuckyavg 39.1¢	$124.09	$61.92	-$33.69	50% 1827-1860 (3687)
CM cm2897<$100	Floridaavg 37¢	$24.42	$51.15	+$26.73	49% 1204-1246 (2450)
NO NotJumpCTR<$100	Kentuckyavg 39.2¢	$35.3	$20.25	-$15.05	51% 970-935 (1905)
GH ghorrock<$100	Floridaavg 53¢	$7.12	$8.09	+$0.97	53% 2063-1842 (3905)

primm

Florida

Invested

$5,114.85

Value

$6.6K

PnL

+$1.5K

Record

59%

1044-726 (1770)

vibing123

Florida

Invested

$1,682.34

Value

$2.2K

PnL

+$483.39

Record

62%

1157-711 (1868)

keeptheblueflagflyinghighCTR

Kentucky

Invested

$1,808.65

Value

$1.0K

PnL

-$790.63

Record

50%

2685-2651 (5336)

RN1CTR

Kentucky

Invested

$1,616.02

Value

$853.94

PnL

-$762.08

Record

55%

5703-4745 (10448)

38791873984189CTR

Kentucky

Invested

$1,466.38

Value

$381.38

PnL

-$246.4

Record

47%

3551-3935 (7486)

0x228B8d11EBa89BF1c554f8879a9293B7106DaF4c-1765442354872CTR

Kentucky

Invested

$400.56

Value

$228.29

PnL

-$172.27

Record

55%

1770-1448 (3218)

SnakeBall

Florida

Invested

$172.02

Value

$195.39

PnL

+$23.38

Record

47%

1065-1216 (2281)

6512395314597884CTR<$100

Kentucky

Invested

$86

Value

$78

PnL

-$8

Record

50%

3954-3949 (7903)

Pan9XCTR

Kentucky

Invested

$124.09

Value

$61.92

PnL

-$33.69

Record

50%

1827-1860 (3687)

cm2897<$100

Florida

Invested

$24.42

Value

$51.15

PnL

+$26.73

Record

49%

1204-1246 (2450)

NotJumpCTR<$100

Kentucky

Invested

$35.3

Value

$20.25

PnL

-$15.05

Record

51%

970-935 (1905)

ghorrock<$100

Florida

Invested

$7.12

Value

$8.09

PnL

+$0.97

Record

53%

2063-1842 (3905)

Research grade

NeutralFlorida at 79%

Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

Smart Money Signal

Florida

5 of 12 top traders (42%)7 hold an outcome priced under 50%4 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Surging

-33 pts consensus

Breadth

5 traders

Top 2 hold 97%

Freshness

Fresh

2h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

42% of non-arb traders are on Florida. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 97% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

ctrFlorida 67% · 6

Aligned

Hand-pickedKentucky 100% · 1

Diverging

Top 1000Kentucky 58% · 12

Diverging

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Florida wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance80.3%

78.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.8¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$24.51

Max Loss

-$100.00

124.5

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.