Florida vs. Kentucky
4 of 6 top Polymarket traders hold Kentucky (67%) · Kentucky at 59¢ · $3K held · ends Nov 14
⚖️
Neutral
Kentucky
6
Kentucky 67%
1 arb excluded
$2.6K
-$8.71
58.5¢ → 58.5¢
+0% since entry · 4 traders
Research grade
NeutralKentucky at 59%
No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).
- Side priced 50–60¢Full year, out of sample: 0.50–0.70 lost −2.9 % a trade (n 23,546, 95 % CI −3.9 to −1.9).
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
4 of 6 top traders (67%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed2 hold an outcome priced under 50%1 small position dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
Signal Intelligence
Momentum
Flat
+0 pts consensus
Breadth
3 traders
Top 2 hold 96%
Freshness
Mature
13h old
Flip Quality
Clean
0 consensus flips
60% of non-arb traders are on Kentucky. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 96% of that side's value.
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
KE keeptheblueflagflyinghigh | Kentuckyavg 58¢ | $923.72 | $915.76 | -$7.96 | 50% 2506-2466 (4972) |
38 38791873984189 | Kentuckyavg 59.1¢ | $832.55 | $780.17 | -$28.59 | 48% 3199-3501 (6700) |
FL FlaznorpCTR | Floridaavg 41¢ | $471.59 | $488.84 | +$17.25 | 49% 3807-3970 (7777) |
OV overtimemarkets.xyz-singlesARB<$100 | Floridaavg 50¢ | $200 | $199 | -$1 | 69% 131-59 (190) |
| └ Kentucky leg | Kentuckyavg 50¢ | $100 | $114 | +$14 | |
| └ Florida leg | Floridaavg 50¢ | $100 | $85 | -$15 | |
SN SnakeBallCTR | Floridaavg 39¢ | $136.19 | $148.41 | +$12.22 | 47% 895-992 (1887) |
GH ghorrock<$100 | Kentuckyavg 59.1¢ | $40.31 | $38.87 | -$1.45 | 52% 1712-1564 (3276) |
 VeryLucky888 | Kentuckyavg 58.9¢ | $110.21 | $2.88 | -$0.19 | 53% 1340-1169 (2509) |
Invested
$923.72
Value
$915.76
PnL
-$7.96
Record
50%
2506-2466 (4972)
Invested
$832.55
Value
$780.17
PnL
-$28.59
Record
48%
3199-3501 (6700)
Invested
$471.59
Value
$488.84
PnL
+$17.25
Record
49%
3807-3970 (7777)
Invested
$200
Value
$199
PnL
-$1
Record
69%
131-59 (190)
Both legs:
Invested
$136.19
Value
$148.41
PnL
+$12.22
Record
47%
895-992 (1887)
Invested
$40.31
Value
$38.87
PnL
-$1.45
Record
52%
1712-1564 (3276)
VeryLucky888Invested
$110.21
Value
$2.88
PnL
-$0.19
Record
53%
1340-1169 (2509)
Chat
EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
58.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.2¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.