Smart money holds the underdog side

Most tracked traders hold Wofford, while the market favors East Tennessee State (80%). 4 of 10 traders hold an outcome priced under 50%.

Historically, consensus on sides priced under 40¢ lost money after costs.

East Tennessee State vs. Wofford

4 of 10 top Polymarket traders hold Wofford (40%) · Wofford at 21¢ · $867 held · ended Nov 14

East Tennessee State80¢Wofford20¢Ended Sat, Nov 14, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚠️

Avoid

Wofford

Consensus Traders

Wofford 40%

Total Value

$866.71

Combined PnL

$52.81

Smart Money Entry

41¢ → 20.5¢

-50% since entry · 4 traders

Research grade

AvoidWofford at 21%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.

Consensus side under 30¢Full year, out of sample: 0.05–0.30 lost −8.1 % a trade (n 11,568), under 0.20 −20.5 % (n 3,615). Oct 22 backtest: −29.5 % (n 1,625). The strongest effect in every test.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Wofford

4 of 10 top traders (40%)Underdog side (market favors East Tennessee State 80%)4 hold an outcome priced under 50%7 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

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Outcome Probabilities

East Tennessee State80%

Wofford21%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Wofford4 traders

Total Value$447

Total Shares1,058

Combined PnL-$1.77

East Tennessee State6 traders

Total Value$419.71

Total Shares637

Combined PnL+$54.57

Wofford — 40%East Tennessee State — 60%

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
0X 0xfFFF6537CTR	Woffordavg 41¢	$410	$400	-$10	38% 53-87 (140)
0X 0xdbdd45150249e229eB4cA8aa48A30Dca21Faa5de-1757094771846	East Tennessee Stateavg 29.2¢	$104.95	$142.38	+$37.43	39% 563-895 (1458)
0X 0x1bc32be106439240f59aa25668e613831a5cdc6e	East Tennessee Stateavg 58¢	$95.67	$101.44	+$5.77	58% 3629-2629 (6258)
dips.<$100	East Tennessee Stateavg 58¢	$62.06	$65.8	+$3.74	47% 993-1122 (2115)
SM smithagent<$100	East Tennessee Stateavg 58¢	$55.1	$58.43	+$3.32	45% 679-837 (1516)
65 6512395314597884<$100	East Tennessee Stateavg 56.3¢	$44.46	$48.59	+$4.13	50% 3807-3775 (7582)
TO topdogbigboiCTR<$100	Woffordavg 42¢	$32.94	$40.66	+$7.72	37% 1063-1799 (2862)
IM imjustkenisgheyCTR<$100	Woffordavg 35¢	$5.38	$4.15	+$0.57	48% 34-37 (71)
ARTEM-DZYUBA<$100	East Tennessee Stateavg 58¢	$2.9	$3.08	+$0.18	83% 750-157 (907)
GH ghorrockCTR<$100	Woffordavg 41¢	$2.25	$2.19	-$0.05	53% 1815-1613 (3428)

0xfFFF6537CTR

Wofford

Invested

$410

Value

$400

PnL

-$10

Record

38%

53-87 (140)

0xdbdd45150249e229eB4cA8aa48A30Dca21Faa5de-1757094771846

East Tennessee State

Invested

$104.95

Value

$142.38

PnL

+$37.43

Record

39%

563-895 (1458)

0x1bc32be106439240f59aa25668e613831a5cdc6e

East Tennessee State

Invested

$95.67

Value

$101.44

PnL

+$5.77

Record

58%

3629-2629 (6258)

dips.<$100

East Tennessee State

Invested

$62.06

Value

$65.8

PnL

+$3.74

Record

47%

993-1122 (2115)

smithagent<$100

East Tennessee State

Invested

$55.1

Value

$58.43

PnL

+$3.32

Record

45%

679-837 (1516)

6512395314597884<$100

East Tennessee State

Invested

$44.46

Value

$48.59

PnL

+$4.13

Record

50%

3807-3775 (7582)

topdogbigboiCTR<$100

Wofford

Invested

$32.94

Value

$40.66

PnL

+$7.72

Record

37%

1063-1799 (2862)

imjustkenisgheyCTR<$100

Wofford

Invested

$5.38

Value

$4.15

PnL

+$0.57

Record

48%

34-37 (71)

ARTEM-DZYUBA<$100

East Tennessee State

Invested

$2.9

Value

$3.08

PnL

+$0.18

Record

83%

750-157 (907)

ghorrockCTR<$100

Wofford

Invested

$2.25

Value

$2.19

PnL

-$0.05

Record

53%

1815-1613 (3428)

Research grade

AvoidWofford at 21%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.

Consensus side under 30¢Full year, out of sample: 0.05–0.30 lost −8.1 % a trade (n 11,568), under 0.20 −20.5 % (n 3,615). Oct 22 backtest: −29.5 % (n 1,625). The strongest effect in every test.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.

Smart Money Signal

Wofford

4 of 10 top traders (40%)Underdog side (market favors East Tennessee State 80%)4 hold an outcome priced under 50%7 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Wofford wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance22.3%

20.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.8¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$347.55

Max Loss

-$100.00

447.5

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.