Smart money holds the underdog side

Most tracked traders hold Over, while the market favors Under (54%). 4 of 10 traders hold an outcome priced under 50%.

East Carolina vs. Charlotte: O/U 47.5

4 of 10 top Polymarket traders hold Over (40%) · Over at 46¢ · $4K held · ended Nov 14

Over46¢Under54¢Ended Sat, Nov 14, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Over

Consensus Traders

Over 40%

Total Value

$4.3K

Combined PnL

-$352.56

Smart Money Entry

46.7¢ → 46¢

-2% since entry · 4 traders

Research grade

NeutralOver at 46%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Side priced 30–50¢Full year, out of sample: 0.30–0.50 lost −4.8 % a trade (n 16,830, 95 % CI −6.6 to −3.1), worse than the plain consensus.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Over

4 of 10 top traders (40%)Underdog side (market favors Under 54%)4 hold an outcome priced under 50%2 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

Over46%

Under54%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Over4 traders

Total Value$2.3K

Total Shares5,655

Combined PnL-$341.87

Under6 traders

Total Value$2.0K

Total Shares3,870

Combined PnL-$10.69

Over — 40%Under — 60%

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

3 traders

Top 2 hold 97%

Freshness

Fresh

0h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

50% of non-arb traders are on Over. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 97% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

ctrOver 60% · 5

Aligned

Top 1000Over 50% · 6

Aligned

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
VE VenusianCTR	Overavg 46.5¢	$942.31	$911.47	-$30.84	37% 968-1674 (2642)
MA MadridTimeCTR	Overavg 46.8¢	$1.2K	$849.81	-$302.16	37% 985-1642 (2627)
0xheavy888	Underavg 53¢	$795	$787.5	-$7.5	54% 503-421 (924)
38 38791873984189	Underavg 53.1¢	$610.29	$603.48	-$6.81	48% 3231-3545 (6776)
MU Multicoloured-SerfCTR	Overavg 47¢	$482.69	$472.42	-$10.27	49% 635-674 (1309)
RN1	Underavg 53¢	$408.63	$412.49	+$3.86	55% 5380-4339 (9719)
0X 0x99F0d31fdced5B3A0e5Ee2867730A6644a6C9495-1779037126382	Underavg 53.2¢	$113.24	$111.83	-$1.41	48% 293-321 (614)
65 6512395314597884	Underavg 53¢	$106	$107	+$1	50% 3807-3775 (7582)
LI LimousinCTR<$100	Overavg 46¢	$64.11	$65.5	+$1.39	36% 950-1657 (2607)
PA Pan9X<$100	Underavg 53¢	$19.61	$19.8	+$0.19	50% 1593-1619 (3212)

VenusianCTR

Over

Invested

$942.31

Value

$911.47

PnL

-$30.84

Record

37%

968-1674 (2642)

MadridTimeCTR

Over

Invested

$1,151.97

Value

$849.81

PnL

-$302.16

Record

37%

985-1642 (2627)

0xheavy888

Under

Invested

$795

Value

$787.5

PnL

-$7.5

Record

54%

503-421 (924)

38791873984189

Under

Invested

$610.29

Value

$603.48

PnL

-$6.81

Record

48%

3231-3545 (6776)

Multicoloured-SerfCTR

Over

Invested

$482.69

Value

$472.42

PnL

-$10.27

Record

49%

635-674 (1309)

RN1

Under

Invested

$408.63

Value

$412.49

PnL

+$3.86

Record

55%

5380-4339 (9719)

0x99F0d31fdced5B3A0e5Ee2867730A6644a6C9495-1779037126382

Under

Invested

$113.24

Value

$111.83

PnL

-$1.41

Record

48%

293-321 (614)

6512395314597884

Under

Invested

$106

Value

$107

PnL

+$1

Record

50%

3807-3775 (7582)

LimousinCTR<$100

Over

Invested

$64.11

Value

$65.5

PnL

+$1.39

Record

36%

950-1657 (2607)

Pan9X<$100

Under

Invested

$19.61

Value

$19.8

PnL

+$0.19

Record

50%

1593-1619 (3212)

Research grade

NeutralOver at 46%

Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Side priced 30–50¢Full year, out of sample: 0.30–0.50 lost −4.8 % a trade (n 16,830, 95 % CI −6.6 to −3.1), worse than the plain consensus.

Smart Money Signal

Over

4 of 10 top traders (40%)Underdog side (market favors Under 54%)4 hold an outcome priced under 50%2 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

3 traders

Top 2 hold 97%

Freshness

Fresh

0h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

50% of non-arb traders are on Over. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 97% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

ctrOver 60% · 5

Aligned

Top 1000Over 50% · 6

Aligned

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Over wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance48.2%

46.0¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.2¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$107.27

Max Loss

-$100.00

207.3

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.