Duke vs. Miami (FL): O/U 55.5

9 of 11 top Polymarket traders hold Over (82%) · Over at 52¢ · $2K held · ended Nov 14

Over52¢Under48¢Ended Sat, Nov 14, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Over

Consensus Traders

Over 82%

Total Value

$1.6K

Combined PnL

-$354.31

Smart Money Entry

31.8¢ → 51.5¢

+62% since entry · 9 traders

Research grade

NeutralOver at 52%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Side priced 50–60¢Full year, out of sample: 0.50–0.70 lost −2.9 % a trade (n 23,546, 95 % CI −3.9 to −1.9).

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Over

9 of 11 top traders (82%)2 hold an outcome priced under 50%4 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

Over52%

Under49%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Over9 traders

Total Value$1.5K

Total Shares5,808

Combined PnL-$353.23

Under2 traders

Total Value$54.28

Total Shares109

Combined PnL-$1.08

Over — 82%Under — 18%

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

5 traders

Top 2 hold 80%

Freshness

Fresh

2h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

71% of non-arb traders are on Over. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 80% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

ctrUnder 67% · 3

Diverging

Hand-pickedOver 50% · 2

Aligned

Top 1000Over 83% · 6

Aligned

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
LI LightParadox	Overavg 48¢	$508.8	$328.6	-$180.2	37% 1003-1721 (2724)
JU justaluckydude	Overavg 25¢	$360.5	$310.03	-$50.47	47% 540-597 (1137)
GA Gaditima	Overavg 22¢	$220	$245	+$25	48% 280-301 (581)
38 38791873984189	Overavg 25.5¢	$251.32	$241.57	-$9.75	48% 3239-3552 (6791)
0X 0x228B8d11EBa89BF1c554f8879a9293B7106DaF4c-1765442354872	Overavg 25.1¢	$134.54	$131.42	-$3.11	55% 1630-1336 (2966)
RN1	Overavg 47¢	$191.88	$126.56	-$65.32	55% 5404-4376 (9780)
HO HomeRunHazard	Overavg 49¢	$163.9	$103.69	-$60.21	56% 3687-2847 (6534)
0X 0x99F0d31fdced5B3A0e5Ee2867730A6644a6C9495-1779037126382CTR<$100	Underavg 51¢	$54.08	$53	-$1.08	48% 301-331 (632)
PA Pan9X<$100	Overavg 32.8¢	$47.12	$22.33	-$9.35	50% 1594-1620 (3214)
TO topdogbigboi<$100	Overavg 23¢	$2.83	$3.02	+$0.18	37% 1063-1799 (2862)
VeryLucky888CTR<$100	Underavg 50¢	$1.28	$1.28	+$0	54% 1422-1229 (2651)

LightParadox

Over

Invested

$508.8

Value

$328.6

PnL

-$180.2

Record

37%

1003-1721 (2724)

justaluckydude

Over

Invested

$360.5

Value

$310.03

PnL

-$50.47

Record

47%

540-597 (1137)

Gaditima

Over

Invested

$220

Value

$245

PnL

+$25

Record

48%

280-301 (581)

38791873984189

Over

Invested

$251.32

Value

$241.57

PnL

-$9.75

Record

48%

3239-3552 (6791)

0x228B8d11EBa89BF1c554f8879a9293B7106DaF4c-1765442354872

Over

Invested

$134.54

Value

$131.42

PnL

-$3.11

Record

55%

1630-1336 (2966)

RN1

Over

Invested

$191.88

Value

$126.56

PnL

-$65.32

Record

55%

5404-4376 (9780)

HomeRunHazard

Over

Invested

$163.9

Value

$103.69

PnL

-$60.21

Record

56%

3687-2847 (6534)

0x99F0d31fdced5B3A0e5Ee2867730A6644a6C9495-1779037126382CTR<$100

Under

Invested

$54.08

Value

$53

PnL

-$1.08

Record

48%

301-331 (632)

Pan9X<$100

Over

Invested

$47.12

Value

$22.33

PnL

-$9.35

Record

50%

1594-1620 (3214)

topdogbigboi<$100

Over

Invested

$2.83

Value

$3.02

PnL

+$0.18

Record

37%

1063-1799 (2862)

VeryLucky888CTR<$100

Under

Invested

$1.28

Value

$1.28

PnL

+$0

Record

54%

1422-1229 (2651)

Research grade

NeutralOver at 52%

Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Side priced 50–60¢Full year, out of sample: 0.50–0.70 lost −2.9 % a trade (n 23,546, 95 % CI −3.9 to −1.9).

Smart Money Signal

Over

9 of 11 top traders (82%)2 hold an outcome priced under 50%4 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

5 traders

Top 2 hold 80%

Freshness

Fresh

2h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

71% of non-arb traders are on Over. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 80% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

ctrUnder 67% · 3

Diverging

Hand-pickedOver 50% · 2

Aligned

Top 1000Over 83% · 6

Aligned

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Over wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance53.7%

51.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.2¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$86.06

Max Loss

-$100.00

186.1

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.