Spread: Miami (FL) (-7.5)

4 of 11 top Polymarket traders hold Miami (FL) (36%) · Miami (FL) at 61¢ · $5K held · ended Nov 14

Miami (FL)61¢Duke39¢Ended Sat, Nov 14, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Miami (FL)

Consensus Traders

Miami (FL) 36%

1 arb excluded

Total Value

$4.9K

Combined PnL

-$140.34

Smart Money Entry

51.3¢ → 60.5¢

+18% since entry · 4 traders

Research grade

NeutralMiami (FL) at 61%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Miami (FL)

4 of 11 top traders (36%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed7 hold an outcome priced under 50%4 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

Miami (FL)61%

Duke40%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Miami (FL)4 traders

Total Value$2.4K

Total Shares4,890

Combined PnL-$70.98

Duke7 traders

Total Value$2.4K

Total Shares4,809

Combined PnL-$69.36

Miami (FL) — 36%Duke — 64%

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

4 traders

Top 2 hold 80%

Freshness

Fresh

0h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

36% of non-arb traders are on Miami (FL). Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 80% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

sniperMiami (FL) 100% · 1

Aligned

ctrMiami (FL) 60% · 5

Aligned

Hand-pickedDuke 100% · 1

Diverging

Top 1000Duke 64% · 11

Diverging

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
ON Onomatopoeia777	Miami (FL)avg 52¢	$1.3K	$1.3K	-$37.5	18% 7-33 (40)
KE keeptheblueflagflyinghighCTR	Dukeavg 48¢	$994.03	$1.0K	+$55.89	50% 2543-2505 (5048)
RN1CTR	Dukeavg 49.4¢	$860.03	$827.49	-$32.54	55% 5402-4371 (9773)
ST stackingsats	Miami (FL)avg 51¢	$726.24	$662.16	-$64.08	9% 19-188 (207)
PR primm	Miami (FL)avg 50¢	$412.5	$429	+$16.5	59% 931-653 (1584)
38 38791873984189CTR	Dukeavg 48.5¢	$320.68	$257.79	-$62.89	48% 3239-3552 (6791)
65 6512395314597884CTR	Dukeavg 48.5¢	$194	$156	-$38	50% 3807-3775 (7582)
PA Pan9XARB<$100	Dukeavg 48.1¢	$84.58	$88.5	+$3.92	50% 1594-1620 (3214)
└ Duke leg	Dukeavg 48.1¢	$55.78	$59.1	+$3.32
└ Miami (FL) leg	Miami (FL)avg 48¢	$28.8	$29.4	+$0.6
NA NatoAlfista<$100	Miami (FL)avg 51¢	$71.91	$86.01	+$14.1	43% 185-243 (428)
TO topdogbigboiCTR<$100	Dukeavg 48¢	$71.86	$72.61	+$0.75	37% 1063-1796 (2859)
0X 0x228B8d11EBa89BF1c554f8879a9293B7106DaF4c-1765442354872CTR<$100	Dukeavg 36¢	$27.7	$36.94	+$9.23	55% 1630-1336 (2966)
NO NotJumpCTR<$100	Dukeavg 48¢	$9.6	$7.8	-$1.8	51% 850-801 (1651)

Onomatopoeia777

Miami (FL)

Invested

$1,300

Value

$1.3K

PnL

-$37.5

Record

18%

7-33 (40)

keeptheblueflagflyinghighCTR

Duke

Invested

$994.03

Value

$1.0K

PnL

+$55.89

Record

50%

2543-2505 (5048)

RN1CTR

Duke

Invested

$860.03

Value

$827.49

PnL

-$32.54

Record

55%

5402-4371 (9773)

stackingsats

Miami (FL)

Invested

$726.24

Value

$662.16

PnL

-$64.08

Record

19-188 (207)

primm

Miami (FL)

Invested

$412.5

Value

$429

PnL

+$16.5

Record

59%

931-653 (1584)

38791873984189CTR

Duke

Invested

$320.68

Value

$257.79

PnL

-$62.89

Record

48%

3239-3552 (6791)

6512395314597884CTR

Duke

Invested

$194

Value

$156

PnL

-$38

Record

50%

3807-3775 (7582)

Pan9XARB<$100

Duke

Invested

$84.58

Value

$88.5

PnL

+$3.92

Record

50%

1594-1620 (3214)

Both legs:

Duke$55.7848.1¢+$3.32

Miami (FL)$28.848¢+$0.6

NatoAlfista<$100

Miami (FL)

Invested

$71.91

Value

$86.01

PnL

+$14.1

Record

43%

185-243 (428)

topdogbigboiCTR<$100

Duke

Invested

$71.86

Value

$72.61

PnL

+$0.75

Record

37%

1063-1796 (2859)

0x228B8d11EBa89BF1c554f8879a9293B7106DaF4c-1765442354872CTR<$100

Duke

Invested

$27.7

Value

$36.94

PnL

+$9.23

Record

55%

1630-1336 (2966)

NotJumpCTR<$100

Duke

Invested

$9.6

Value

$7.8

PnL

-$1.8

Record

51%

850-801 (1651)

Research grade

NeutralMiami (FL) at 61%

Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

Smart Money Signal

Miami (FL)

4 of 11 top traders (36%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed7 hold an outcome priced under 50%4 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

4 traders

Top 2 hold 80%

Freshness

Fresh

0h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

36% of non-arb traders are on Miami (FL). Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 80% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

sniperMiami (FL) 100% · 1

Aligned

ctrMiami (FL) 60% · 5

Aligned

Hand-pickedDuke 100% · 1

Diverging

Top 1000Duke 64% · 11

Diverging

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Miami (FL) wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance62.7%

60.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.2¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$59.53

Max Loss

-$100.00

159.5

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.