Spread: Miami (FL) (-6.5)

6 of 10 top Polymarket traders hold Miami (FL) (60%) · Miami (FL) at 99¢ · $3K held · ended Nov 14

Miami (FL)99¢Duke1¢Ended Sat, Nov 14, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Miami (FL)

Consensus Traders

Miami (FL) 60%

Total Value

$2.7K

Combined PnL

$84.37

Smart Money Entry

60¢ → 98.6¢

+64% since entry · 6 traders

Research grade

NeutralMiami (FL) at 99%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.
Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Miami (FL)

6 of 10 top traders (60%)4 hold an outcome priced under 50%4 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

Miami (FL)99%

Duke1%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Miami (FL)6 traders

Total Value$2.2K

Total Shares2,908

Combined PnL+$441.38

Duke4 traders

Total Value$546.71

Total Shares2,161

Combined PnL-$357.01

Miami (FL) — 60%Duke — 40%

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

5 traders

Top 2 hold 95%

Freshness

Fresh

0h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

50% of non-arb traders are on Miami (FL). Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 95% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

The hand-picked list (1 on Duke) and the top 1000 (10 on Miami (FL)) disagree here.

ctrDuke 75% · 4

Diverging

Hand-pickedDuke 100% · 1

Diverging

Top 1000Miami (FL) 50% · 10

Aligned

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
ON Onomatopoeia777	Miami (FL)avg 59¢	$1.3K	$1.7K	+$336.15	18% 7-33 (40)
RN1CTR	Dukeavg 41¢	$679.25	$446.74	-$232.52	55% 5404-4376 (9780)
TO topdogbigboi	Miami (FL)avg 57.3¢	$133.66	$172.66	+$39	37% 1063-1799 (2862)
38 38791873984189	Miami (FL)avg 74¢	$155.32	$154.78	-$0.54	48% 3239-3552 (6791)
0X 0x228B8d11EBa89BF1c554f8879a9293B7106DaF4c-1765442354872	Miami (FL)avg 53¢	$186.16	$150.34	+$73.17	55% 1630-1336 (2966)
KE keeptheblueflagflyinghighCTR	Dukeavg 39¢	$138.07	$92.04	-$46.02	50% 2543-2505 (5048)
CI cigarettes<$100	Miami (FL)avg 77¢	$38.5	$37	-$1.5	53% 7148-6248 (13396)
PA Pan9X<$100	Miami (FL)avg 70.5¢	$38.24	$25.54	-$4.9	50% 1594-1620 (3214)
VE VenusianCTR<$100	Dukeavg 48¢	$14.8	$5.4	-$9.4	37% 996-1715 (2711)
dips.CTR<$100	Dukeavg 41¢	$71.6	$2.53	-$69.07	47% 993-1122 (2115)

Onomatopoeia777

Miami (FL)

Invested

$1,322.19

Value

$1.7K

PnL

+$336.15

Record

18%

7-33 (40)

RN1CTR

Duke

Invested

$679.25

Value

$446.74

PnL

-$232.52

Record

55%

5404-4376 (9780)

topdogbigboi

Miami (FL)

Invested

$133.66

Value

$172.66

PnL

+$39

Record

37%

1063-1799 (2862)

38791873984189

Miami (FL)

Invested

$155.32

Value

$154.78

PnL

-$0.54

Record

48%

3239-3552 (6791)

0x228B8d11EBa89BF1c554f8879a9293B7106DaF4c-1765442354872

Miami (FL)

Invested

$186.16

Value

$150.34

PnL

+$73.17

Record

55%

1630-1336 (2966)

keeptheblueflagflyinghighCTR

Duke

Invested

$138.07

Value

$92.04

PnL

-$46.02

Record

50%

2543-2505 (5048)

cigarettes<$100

Miami (FL)

Invested

$38.5

Value

$37

PnL

-$1.5

Record

53%

7148-6248 (13396)

Pan9X<$100

Miami (FL)

Invested

$38.24

Value

$25.54

PnL

-$4.9

Record

50%

1594-1620 (3214)

VenusianCTR<$100

Duke

Invested

$14.8

Value

$5.4

PnL

-$9.4

Record

37%

996-1715 (2711)

dips.CTR<$100

Duke

Invested

$71.6

Value

$2.53

PnL

-$69.07

Record

47%

993-1122 (2115)

Research grade

NeutralMiami (FL) at 99%

Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.
Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.

Smart Money Signal

Miami (FL)

6 of 10 top traders (60%)4 hold an outcome priced under 50%4 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

5 traders

Top 2 hold 95%

Freshness

Fresh

0h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

50% of non-arb traders are on Miami (FL). Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 95% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

The hand-picked list (1 on Duke) and the top 1000 (10 on Miami (FL)) disagree here.

ctrDuke 75% · 4

Diverging

Hand-pickedDuke 100% · 1

Diverging

Top 1000Miami (FL) 50% · 10

Aligned

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Miami (FL) wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance99.6%

98.6¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.0¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$0.43

Max Loss

-$100.00

100.4

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.