Spread: Miami (FL) (-14.5)

3 of 12 top Polymarket traders hold Duke (25%) · Duke at 56¢ · $5K held · ended Nov 14

Miami (FL)45¢Duke55¢Ended Sat, Nov 14, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Duke

Consensus Traders

Duke 25%

Total Value

$4.8K

Combined PnL

$20.39

Smart Money Entry

54.1¢ → 55.5¢

+3% since entry · 3 traders

Research grade

NeutralDuke at 56%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Side priced 50–60¢Full year, out of sample: 0.50–0.70 lost −2.9 % a trade (n 23,546, 95 % CI −3.9 to −1.9).

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Duke

3 of 12 top traders (25%)9 hold an outcome priced under 50%5 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

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Outcome Probabilities

Miami (FL)45%

Duke56%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Duke3 traders

Total Value$2.8K

Total Shares5,164

Combined PnL+$24.78

Miami (FL)9 traders

Total Value$2.0K

Total Shares4,446

Combined PnL-$4.39

Duke — 25%Miami (FL) — 75%

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Surging

+2 pts consensus

Breadth

3 traders

Top 2 hold 88%

Freshness

Mature

18h old

Flip Quality

Clean

1 consensus flip

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

27% of non-arb traders are on Duke. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 88% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

sharpDuke 100% · 1

Aligned

ctrMiami (FL) 100% · 6

Diverging

Hand-pickedMiami (FL) 100% · 1

Diverging

Top 1000Miami (FL) 70% · 10

Diverging

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
LI lightotunnel35	Dukeavg 54¢	$1.3K	$1.3K	-$0	20% 15-59 (74)
0x448861155279dbf833d041b963e3ac854599e319	Dukeavg 54¢	$1.1K	$1.2K	+$31.14	59% 1135-781 (1916)
VeryLucky888CTR	Miami (FL)avg 45.6¢	$1.4K	$742.19	-$11.84	53% 1351-1180 (2531)
PR primmCTR	Miami (FL)avg 45¢	$540	$540	+$0	59% 931-653 (1584)
38 38791873984189CTR	Miami (FL)avg 44.2¢	$366.17	$376.94	+$10.77	48% 3214-3513 (6727)
AU Aurelius7	Dukeavg 55¢	$350	$343.64	-$6.36	3% 4-139 (143)
fyrskenCTR	Miami (FL)avg 46¢	$276	$273	-$3	52% 56-51 (107)
IM imjustkenisgheyCTR<$100	Miami (FL)avg 45¢	$35.66	$36.06	+$0.4	48% 34-37 (71)
PA Pan9XCTR<$100	Miami (FL)avg 46¢	$20.7	$20.48	-$0.22	50% 1587-1614 (3201)
AM AmericaFirst1CTR<$100	Miami (FL)avg 46¢	$20.25	$19.81	-$0.44	47% 99-111 (210)
GH ghorrockCTR<$100	Miami (FL)avg 46¢	$4.64	$4.59	-$0.05	52% 1721-1568 (3289)
SN SnakeBallCTR<$100	Miami (FL)avg 45¢	$3.6	$3.6	+$0	47% 895-994 (1889)

lightotunnel35

Duke

Invested

$1,323.66

Value

$1.3K

PnL

-$0

Record

20%

15-59 (74)

0x448861155279dbf833d041b963e3ac854599e319

Duke

Invested

$1,121.14

Value

$1.2K

PnL

+$31.14

Record

59%

1135-781 (1916)

VeryLucky888CTR

Miami (FL)

Invested

$1,390.6

Value

$742.19

PnL

-$11.84

Record

53%

1351-1180 (2531)

primmCTR

Miami (FL)

Invested

$540

Value

$540

PnL

+$0

Record

59%

931-653 (1584)

38791873984189CTR

Miami (FL)

Invested

$366.17

Value

$376.94

PnL

+$10.77

Record

48%

3214-3513 (6727)

Aurelius7

Duke

Invested

$350

Value

$343.64

PnL

-$6.36

Record

4-139 (143)

fyrskenCTR

Miami (FL)

Invested

$276

Value

$273

PnL

-$3

Record

52%

56-51 (107)

imjustkenisgheyCTR<$100

Miami (FL)

Invested

$35.66

Value

$36.06

PnL

+$0.4

Record

48%

34-37 (71)

Pan9XCTR<$100

Miami (FL)

Invested

$20.7

Value

$20.48

PnL

-$0.22

Record

50%

1587-1614 (3201)

AmericaFirst1CTR<$100

Miami (FL)

Invested

$20.25

Value

$19.81

PnL

-$0.44

Record

47%

99-111 (210)

ghorrockCTR<$100

Miami (FL)

Invested

$4.64

Value

$4.59

PnL

-$0.05

Record

52%

1721-1568 (3289)

SnakeBallCTR<$100

Miami (FL)

Invested

$3.6

Value

$3.6

PnL

+$0

Record

47%

895-994 (1889)

Research grade

NeutralDuke at 56%

Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Side priced 50–60¢Full year, out of sample: 0.50–0.70 lost −2.9 % a trade (n 23,546, 95 % CI −3.9 to −1.9).

Smart Money Signal

Duke

3 of 12 top traders (25%)9 hold an outcome priced under 50%5 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Surging

+2 pts consensus

Breadth

3 traders

Top 2 hold 88%

Freshness

Mature

18h old

Flip Quality

Clean

1 consensus flip

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

27% of non-arb traders are on Duke. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 88% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

sharpDuke 100% · 1

Aligned

ctrMiami (FL) 100% · 6

Diverging

Hand-pickedMiami (FL) 100% · 1

Diverging

Top 1000Miami (FL) 70% · 10

Diverging

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Duke wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance57.7%

55.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.2¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$73.22

Max Loss

-$100.00

173.2

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.