Smart money holds the underdog side

Most tracked traders hold Delaware, while the market favors Kennesaw State (51%). 5 of 11 traders hold an outcome priced under 50%.

Spread: Delaware (-1.5)

5 of 11 top Polymarket traders hold Delaware (45%) · Delaware at 50¢ · $11K held · ended Nov 7

Delaware50¢Kennesaw State50¢Ended Sat, Nov 7, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Delaware

Consensus Traders

Delaware 45%

Total Value

$11.4K

Combined PnL

$123.72

Smart Money Entry

47¢ → 49.5¢

+5% since entry · 5 traders

Research grade

NeutralDelaware at 50%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Side priced 30–50¢Full year, out of sample: 0.30–0.50 lost −4.8 % a trade (n 16,830, 95 % CI −6.6 to −3.1), worse than the plain consensus.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Delaware

5 of 11 top traders (45%)Underdog side (market favors Kennesaw State 51%)5 hold an outcome priced under 50%2 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

Delaware50%

Kennesaw State51%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Delaware5 traders

Total Value$8.4K

Total Shares16,885

Combined PnL+$423.94

Kennesaw State6 traders

Total Value$3.0K

Total Shares5,926

Combined PnL-$300.22

Delaware — 45%Kennesaw State — 55%

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
HI hi774cCTR	Delawareavg 48¢	$4.0K	$4.1K	+$124.21	46% 5332-6170 (11502)
PR primmCTR	Delawareavg 48¢	$2.0K	$2.1K	+$62.5	47% 1317-1506 (2823)
RN1	Kennesaw Stateavg 56.6¢	$1.8K	$1.6K	-$195.85	53% 63014-55227 (118241)
TA TAIWANNUMBERONECTR	Delawareavg 44.2¢	$1.4K	$1.6K	+$168.49	54% 1393-1200 (2593)
38 38791873984189	Kennesaw Stateavg 54.7¢	$1.2K	$1.1K	-$89.45	48% 63191-68207 (131398)
PI PiEDawgCTR	Delawareavg 48¢	$480	$495	+$15	31% 1860-4120 (5980)
65 6512395314597884	Kennesaw Stateavg 50¢	$150.41	$151.86	+$1.45	51% 5014-4884 (9898)
0X 0xdbdd45150249e229eB4cA8aa48A30Dca21Faa5de-1757094771846CTR	Delawareavg 28¢	$70	$123.75	+$53.75	59% 33715-23828 (57543)
PA Pan9X	Kennesaw Stateavg 64¢	$163.04	$113.58	-$19.48	54% 10485-8797 (19282)
0X 0x1bc32be106439240f59aa25668e613831a5cdc6e<$100	Kennesaw Stateavg 43.2¢	$18.14	$21.21	+$3.07	58% 3248-2345 (5593)
HO HomeRunHazard<$100	Kennesaw Stateavg 50¢	$4.5	$4.55	+$0.04	54% 18557-15589 (34146)

hi774cCTR

Delaware

Invested

$3,974.62

Value

$4.1K

PnL

+$124.21

Record

46%

5332-6170 (11502)

primmCTR

Delaware

Invested

$2,000

Value

$2.1K

PnL

+$62.5

Record

47%

1317-1506 (2823)

RN1

Kennesaw State

Invested

$1,828.5

Value

$1.6K

PnL

-$195.85

Record

53%

63014-55227 (118241)

TAIWANNUMBERONECTR

Delaware

Invested

$1,409.63

Value

$1.6K

PnL

+$168.49

Record

54%

1393-1200 (2593)

38791873984189

Kennesaw State

Invested

$1,158.06

Value

$1.1K

PnL

-$89.45

Record

48%

63191-68207 (131398)

PiEDawgCTR

Delaware

Invested

$480

Value

$495

PnL

+$15

Record

31%

1860-4120 (5980)

6512395314597884

Kennesaw State

Invested

$150.41

Value

$151.86

PnL

+$1.45

Record

51%

5014-4884 (9898)

0xdbdd45150249e229eB4cA8aa48A30Dca21Faa5de-1757094771846CTR

Delaware

Invested

$70

Value

$123.75

PnL

+$53.75

Record

59%

33715-23828 (57543)

Pan9X

Kennesaw State

Invested

$163.04

Value

$113.58

PnL

-$19.48

Record

54%

10485-8797 (19282)

0x1bc32be106439240f59aa25668e613831a5cdc6e<$100

Kennesaw State

Invested

$18.14

Value

$21.21

PnL

+$3.07

Record

58%

3248-2345 (5593)

HomeRunHazard<$100

Kennesaw State

Invested

$4.5

Value

$4.55

PnL

+$0.04

Record

54%

18557-15589 (34146)

Research grade

NeutralDelaware at 50%

Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Side priced 30–50¢Full year, out of sample: 0.30–0.50 lost −4.8 % a trade (n 16,830, 95 % CI −6.6 to −3.1), worse than the plain consensus.

Smart Money Signal

Delaware

5 of 11 top traders (45%)Underdog side (market favors Kennesaw State 51%)5 hold an outcome priced under 50%2 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Delaware wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance51.7%

49.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.2¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$93.24

Max Loss

-$100.00

193.2

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.