Dartmouth vs. Cornell

6 of 9 top Polymarket traders hold Dartmouth (67%) · Dartmouth at 72¢ · $13K held · ended Nov 14

Dartmouth72¢Cornell28¢Ended Sat, Nov 14, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Dartmouth

Consensus Traders

Dartmouth 67%

Total Value

$13.2K

Combined PnL

$-2.2K

Smart Money Entry

51.3¢ → 71.5¢

+39% since entry · 6 traders

Research grade

NeutralDartmouth at 72%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Dartmouth

6 of 9 top traders (67%)3 hold an outcome priced under 50%5 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

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Outcome Probabilities

Dartmouth72%

Cornell28%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Dartmouth6 traders

Total Value$8.1K

Total Shares15,360

Combined PnL+$229.77

Cornell3 traders

Total Value$5.1K

Total Shares15,468

Combined PnL$-2.4K

Dartmouth — 67%Cornell — 33%

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
IM imjustkenisghey	Dartmouthavg 51¢	$7.1K	$7.2K	+$69.46	48% 34-37 (71)
nigiri99CTR	Cornellavg 49¢	$5.6K	$3.8K	$-1.8K	51% 568-535 (1103)
FO Forecastication2CTR	Cornellavg 47.7¢	$1.9K	$1.3K	-$587.22	45% 261-317 (578)
AV averagejoetraders	Dartmouthavg 56¢	$570	$722.68	+$152.68	56% 760-609 (1369)
GH ghorrock<$100	Dartmouthavg 51¢	$83.04	$83.86	+$0.81	53% 1809-1607 (3416)
PA Pan9X<$100	Dartmouthavg 51¢	$76.5	$77.25	+$0.75	50% 1593-1619 (3212)
CA CandleHammerDrums<$100	Dartmouthavg 51¢	$51	$51.5	+$0.5	49% 525-557 (1082)
0X 0x1bc32be106439240f59aa25668e613831a5cdc6e<$100	Dartmouthavg 56¢	$20.8	$26.37	+$5.57	58% 3610-2614 (6224)
RN1CTR<$100	Cornellavg 37¢	$19.1	$20.1	+$1	55% 5380-4339 (9719)

imjustkenisghey

Dartmouth

Invested

$7,084.92

Value

$7.2K

PnL

+$69.46

Record

48%

34-37 (71)

nigiri99CTR

Cornell

Invested

$5,598.25

Value

$3.8K

PnL

$-1.8K

Record

51%

568-535 (1103)

Forecastication2CTR

Cornell

Invested

$1,907.17

Value

$1.3K

PnL

-$587.22

Record

45%

261-317 (578)

averagejoetraders

Dartmouth

Invested

$570

Value

$722.68

PnL

+$152.68

Record

56%

760-609 (1369)

ghorrock<$100

Dartmouth

Invested

$83.04

Value

$83.86

PnL

+$0.81

Record

53%

1809-1607 (3416)

Pan9X<$100

Dartmouth

Invested

$76.5

Value

$77.25

PnL

+$0.75

Record

50%

1593-1619 (3212)

CandleHammerDrums<$100

Dartmouth

Invested

$51

Value

$51.5

PnL

+$0.5

Record

49%

525-557 (1082)

0x1bc32be106439240f59aa25668e613831a5cdc6e<$100

Dartmouth

Invested

$20.8

Value

$26.37

PnL

+$5.57

Record

58%

3610-2614 (6224)

RN1CTR<$100

Cornell

Invested

$19.1

Value

$20.1

PnL

+$1

Record

55%

5380-4339 (9719)

Research grade

NeutralDartmouth at 72%

Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

Smart Money Signal

Dartmouth

6 of 9 top traders (67%)3 hold an outcome priced under 50%5 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Dartmouth wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance73.5%

71.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.0¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$36.06

Max Loss

-$100.00

136.1

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.