Colorado State vs. Washington State

8 of 15 top Polymarket traders hold Washington State (53%) · Washington State at 72¢ · $48K held · ended Nov 15

Colorado State28¢Washington State72¢Ended Sun, Nov 15, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Washington State

Consensus Traders

Washington State 53%

Total Value

$47.7K

Combined PnL

$485.33

Smart Money Entry

73.2¢ → 71.5¢

-2% since entry · 8 traders

Research grade

NeutralWashington State at 72%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Washington State

8 of 15 top traders (53%)7 hold an outcome priced under 50%4 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

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Outcome Probabilities

Colorado State28%

Washington State72%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Washington State8 traders

Total Value$32.9K

Total Shares45,433

Combined PnL-$308.27

Colorado State7 traders

Total Value$14.7K

Total Shares51,873

Combined PnL+$793.6

Washington State — 53%Colorado State — 47%

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

8 traders

Top 2 hold 73%

Freshness

Fresh

0h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

62% of non-arb traders are on Washington State. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 73% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

whaleColorado State 100% · 1

Diverging

ctrWashington State 64% · 11

Aligned

Hand-pickedWashington State 100% · 1

Aligned

Top 1000Washington State 58% · 12

Aligned

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
0xheavy888	Washington Stateavg 73.5¢	$14.7K	$14.5K	-$200	56% 580-460 (1040)
VeryLucky888	Washington Stateavg 73.1¢	$9.5K	$9.4K	-$74.99	54% 1691-1455 (3146)
nigiri99CTR	Colorado Stateavg 26.9¢	$8.7K	$9.2K	+$518.87	51% 646-632 (1278)
PU purplegattoCTR	Colorado Stateavg 26.8¢	$4.2K	$4.4K	+$257.44	68% 2657-1243 (3900)
BA Bagwell306	Washington Stateavg 72¢	$3.6K	$3.6K	+$25	35% 78-145 (223)
MU Multicoloured-Serf	Washington Stateavg 73¢	$2.7K	$2.7K	-$18.4	49% 676-717 (1393)
0x448861155279dbf833d041b963e3ac854599e319	Washington Stateavg 74¢	$1.6K	$1.6K	-$33.33	59% 1142-789 (1931)
GA gagarin59	Washington Stateavg 73¢	$1.0K	$993.25	-$6.85	42% 75-104 (179)
extractive-manateeCTR	Colorado Stateavg 28¢	$583.2	$573.63	-$9.57	— 5-3 (8)
RN1CTR	Colorado Stateavg 27¢	$220.32	$224.4	+$4.08	55% 5758-4807 (10565)
38 38791873984189CTR	Colorado Stateavg 25¢	$250.39	$223.77	+$21.38	47% 3580-3963 (7543)
0X 0x99F0d31fdced5B3A0e5Ee2867730A6644a6C9495-1779037126382<$100	Washington Stateavg 72¢	$94.32	$94.98	+$0.65	48% 402-433 (835)
65 6512395314597884CTR<$100	Colorado Stateavg 27¢	$73.91	$75.28	+$1.37	50% 3962-3959 (7921)
GH ghorrock<$100	Washington Stateavg 75¢	$25.11	$24.76	-$0.35	53% 2078-1852 (3930)
SU suntoriCTR<$100	Colorado Stateavg 27¢	$1.9	$1.94	+$0.04	46% 2978-3516 (6494)

0xheavy888

Washington State

Invested

$14,700

Value

$14.5K

PnL

-$200

Record

56%

580-460 (1040)

VeryLucky888

Washington State

Invested

$9,499.8

Value

$9.4K

PnL

-$74.99

Record

54%

1691-1455 (3146)

nigiri99CTR

Colorado State

Invested

$8,686.92

Value

$9.2K

PnL

+$518.87

Record

51%

646-632 (1278)

purplegattoCTR

Colorado State

Invested

$4,185.71

Value

$4.4K

PnL

+$257.44

Record

68%

2657-1243 (3900)

Bagwell306

Washington State

Invested

$3,600

Value

$3.6K

PnL

+$25

Record

35%

78-145 (223)

Multicoloured-Serf

Washington State

Invested

$2,687

Value

$2.7K

PnL

-$18.4

Record

49%

676-717 (1393)

0x448861155279dbf833d041b963e3ac854599e319

Washington State

Invested

$1,644.28

Value

$1.6K

PnL

-$33.33

Record

59%

1142-789 (1931)

gagarin59

Washington State

Invested

$1,000.1

Value

$993.25

PnL

-$6.85

Record

42%

75-104 (179)

extractive-manateeCTR

Colorado State

Invested

$583.2

Value

$573.63

PnL

-$9.57

Record

—

5-3 (8)

RN1CTR

Colorado State

Invested

$220.32

Value

$224.4

PnL

+$4.08

Record

55%

5758-4807 (10565)

38791873984189CTR

Colorado State

Invested

$250.39

Value

$223.77

PnL

+$21.38

Record

47%

3580-3963 (7543)

0x99F0d31fdced5B3A0e5Ee2867730A6644a6C9495-1779037126382<$100

Washington State

Invested

$94.32

Value

$94.98

PnL

+$0.65

Record

48%

402-433 (835)

6512395314597884CTR<$100

Colorado State

Invested

$73.91

Value

$75.28

PnL

+$1.37

Record

50%

3962-3959 (7921)

ghorrock<$100

Washington State

Invested

$25.11

Value

$24.76

PnL

-$0.35

Record

53%

2078-1852 (3930)

suntoriCTR<$100

Colorado State

Invested

$1.9

Value

$1.94

PnL

+$0.04

Record

46%

2978-3516 (6494)

Research grade

NeutralWashington State at 72%

Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

Smart Money Signal

Washington State

8 of 15 top traders (53%)7 hold an outcome priced under 50%4 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

8 traders

Top 2 hold 73%

Freshness

Fresh

0h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

62% of non-arb traders are on Washington State. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 73% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

whaleColorado State 100% · 1

Diverging

ctrWashington State 64% · 11

Aligned

Hand-pickedWashington State 100% · 1

Aligned

Top 1000Washington State 58% · 12

Aligned

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Washington State wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance73.5%

71.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.0¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$36.06

Max Loss

-$100.00

136.1

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.