Central Michigan vs. Eastern Michigan: O/U 45.5

4 of 6 top Polymarket traders hold Under (67%) · Under at 70¢ · $6K held · ended Nov 5

Over30¢Under70¢Ended Thu, Nov 5, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Under

Consensus Traders

Under 67%

2 arb excluded

Total Value

$6.0K

Combined PnL

-$12.9

Smart Money Entry

62.7¢ → 70¢

+12% since entry · 4 traders

Research grade

NeutralUnder at 70%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Under

4 of 6 top traders (67%)2 arbitrage traders dimmed2 hold an outcome priced under 50%5 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

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Outcome Probabilities

Over30%

Under70%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Under4 traders

Total Value$4.4K

Total Shares7,049

Combined PnL-$12.94

Over2 traders

Total Value$5.56

Total Shares13

Combined PnL+$0.04

Under — 67%Over — 33%

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
PR primm	Underavg 62.7¢	$4.3K	$4.3K	-$16.49	47% 1244-1422 (2666)
RN1ARB<$100	Overavg 35.5¢	$1.1K	$1.1K	+$37.66	53% 60086-52456 (112542)
└ Over leg	Overavg 35.5¢	$606.43	$640.07	+$33.64
└ Under leg	Underavg 62¢	$498.48	$502.5	+$4.02
38 38791873984189ARB<$100	Underavg 62¢	$412.97	$439.46	+$26.49	48% 59342-63357 (122699)
└ Under leg	Underavg 62¢	$310	$350	+$40
└ Over leg	Overavg 34.5¢	$102.97	$89.46	-$13.51
0X 0x228B8d11EBa89BF1c554f8879a9293B7106DaF4c-1765442354872<$100	Underavg 66.5¢	$43.9	$46.2	+$2.3	56% 7896-6221 (14117)
HO HomeRunHazard<$100	Underavg 52¢	$26.52	$27.8	+$1.28	54% 18039-15168 (33207)
PA Pan9X<$100	Underavg 62¢	$25.98	$15.32	-$0.02	—
SN SnakeBallCTR<$100	Overavg 46¢	$3.62	$3.58	-$0.04	50% 36347-35825 (72172)
RL RLWGCTR<$100	Overavg 38¢	$1.9	$1.98	+$0.08	50% 8206-8232 (16438)

primm

Under

Invested

$4,337.83

Value

$4.3K

PnL

-$16.49

Record

47%

1244-1422 (2666)

RN1ARB<$100

Over

Invested

$1,104.91

Value

$1.1K

PnL

+$37.66

Record

53%

60086-52456 (112542)

Both legs:

Over$606.4335.5¢+$33.64

Under$498.4862¢+$4.02

38791873984189ARB<$100

Under

Invested

$412.97

Value

$439.46

PnL

+$26.49

Record

48%

59342-63357 (122699)

Both legs:

Under$31062¢+$40

Over$102.9734.5¢-$13.51

0x228B8d11EBa89BF1c554f8879a9293B7106DaF4c-1765442354872<$100

Under

Invested

$43.9

Value

$46.2

PnL

+$2.3

Record

56%

7896-6221 (14117)

HomeRunHazard<$100

Under

Invested

$26.52

Value

$27.8

PnL

+$1.28

Record

54%

18039-15168 (33207)

Pan9X<$100

Under

Invested

$25.98

Value

$15.32

PnL

-$0.02

Record

—

SnakeBallCTR<$100

Over

Invested

$3.62

Value

$3.58

PnL

-$0.04

Record

50%

36347-35825 (72172)

RLWGCTR<$100

Over

Invested

$1.9

Value

$1.98

PnL

+$0.08

Record

50%

8206-8232 (16438)

Research grade

NeutralUnder at 70%

Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

Smart Money Signal

Under

4 of 6 top traders (67%)2 arbitrage traders dimmed2 hold an outcome priced under 50%5 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

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EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Under wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance72.0%

70.0¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.0¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$38.83

Max Loss

-$100.00

138.8

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.