Smart money holds the underdog side

Most tracked traders hold Under, while the market favors Over (52%). 8 of 9 traders hold an outcome priced under 50%.

Clemson vs. Syracuse: O/U 49.5

8 of 9 top Polymarket traders hold Under (89%) · Under at 49¢ · $10K held · ends Nov 7

Over52¢Under48¢Ends Sat, Nov 7, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Under

Consensus Traders

Under 89%

1 arb excluded

Total Value

$10.2K

Combined PnL

$204.84

Smart Money Entry

49.1¢ → 48.5¢

-1% since entry · 8 traders

Research grade

NeutralUnder at 49%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Side priced 30–50¢Full year, out of sample: 0.30–0.50 lost −4.8 % a trade (n 16,830, 95 % CI −6.6 to −3.1), worse than the plain consensus.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Under

8 of 9 top traders (89%)Underdog side (market favors Over 52%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed8 hold an outcome priced under 50%2 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

Over52%

Under49%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Under8 traders

Total Value$8.5K

Total Shares16,891

Combined PnL+$205.11

Over1 trader

Total Value$27.23

Total Shares55

Combined PnL-$0.27

Under — 89%Over — 11%

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Surging

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

5 traders

Top 2 hold 76%

Freshness

Fresh

8h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

100% of non-arb traders are on Under. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 76% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

whaleUnder 100% · 3

Aligned

ctrUnder 100% · 3

Aligned

Hand-pickedUnder 100% · 1

Aligned

Top 1000Under 100% · 4

Aligned

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
HO HomeRunHazardCTR	Underavg 48.6¢	$3.4K	$3.5K	+$93.97	54% 18479-15550 (34029)
FE ferrariChampions2026CTR	Underavg 50¢	$2.3K	$2.4K	+$23.37	42% 8168-11360 (19528)
PR primmCTR	Underavg 49¢	$2.0K	$2.0K	+$40.82	47% 1316-1503 (2819)
38 38791873984189ARB<$100	Overavg 50¢	$2.0K	$1.7K	+$18.2	48% 62396-67251 (129647)
└ Over leg	Overavg 50¢	$1.1K	$1.1K	-$11.75
└ Under leg	Underavg 48.6¢	$554.8	$576.21	+$29.95
0X 0x760907C8840491c8C86fdDB843D3f1d801786C4e-1771959662080CTR	Underavg 49¢	$294	$303	+$9	51% 2058-1996 (4054)
MU Multicoloured-SerfCTR	Underavg 49¢	$134.75	$137.5	+$1.38	48% 405-446 (851)
SN SnakeBallCTR	Underavg 48¢	$105.24	$110.72	+$5.48	51% 38228-37447 (75675)
NM NM-PCTR<$100	Underavg 48¢	$26.4	$27.78	+$1.38	64% 10182-5720 (15902)
VeryLucky888CTR	Underavg 48.5¢	$970	$27.37	+$29.72	58% 47503-34297 (81800)
RL RLWG<$100	Overavg 50¢	$27.5	$27.23	-$0.27	50% 8436-8484 (16920)

HomeRunHazardCTR

Under

Invested

$3,371.53

Value

$3.5K

PnL

+$93.97

Record

54%

18479-15550 (34029)

ferrariChampions2026CTR

Under

Invested

$2,336.93

Value

$2.4K

PnL

+$23.37

Record

42%

8168-11360 (19528)

primmCTR

Under

Invested

$2,000

Value

$2.0K

PnL

+$40.82

Record

47%

1316-1503 (2819)

38791873984189ARB<$100

Over

Invested

$1,988.35

Value

$1.7K

PnL

+$18.2

Record

48%

62396-67251 (129647)

Both legs:

Over$1,093.0650¢-$11.75

Under$554.848.6¢+$29.95

0x760907C8840491c8C86fdDB843D3f1d801786C4e-1771959662080CTR

Under

Invested

$294

Value

$303

PnL

+$9

Record

51%

2058-1996 (4054)

Multicoloured-SerfCTR

Under

Invested

$134.75

Value

$137.5

PnL

+$1.38

Record

48%

405-446 (851)

SnakeBallCTR

Under

Invested

$105.24

Value

$110.72

PnL

+$5.48

Record

51%

38228-37447 (75675)

NM-PCTR<$100

Under

Invested

$26.4

Value

$27.78

PnL

+$1.38

Record

64%

10182-5720 (15902)

VeryLucky888CTR

Under

Invested

$970

Value

$27.37

PnL

+$29.72

Record

58%

47503-34297 (81800)

RLWG<$100

Over

Invested

$27.5

Value

$27.23

PnL

-$0.27

Record

50%

8436-8484 (16920)

Research grade

NeutralUnder at 49%

Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Side priced 30–50¢Full year, out of sample: 0.30–0.50 lost −4.8 % a trade (n 16,830, 95 % CI −6.6 to −3.1), worse than the plain consensus.

Smart Money Signal

Under

8 of 9 top traders (89%)Underdog side (market favors Over 52%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed8 hold an outcome priced under 50%2 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Surging

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

5 traders

Top 2 hold 76%

Freshness

Fresh

8h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

100% of non-arb traders are on Under. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 76% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

whaleUnder 100% · 3

Aligned

ctrUnder 100% · 3

Aligned

Hand-pickedUnder 100% · 1

Aligned

Top 1000Under 100% · 4

Aligned

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Under wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance50.7%

48.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.2¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$97.04

Max Loss

-$100.00

197.0

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.