Cincinnati vs. Iowa State: O/U 57.5

1 of 11 top Polymarket traders hold Over (9%) · Over at 51¢ · $29K held · ends Nov 14

Over51¢Under49¢Ends Sat, Nov 14, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Over

Consensus Traders

Over 9%

Total Value

$29.4K

Combined PnL

-$398.32

Research grade

NeutralOver at 51%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Side priced 50–60¢Full year, out of sample: 0.50–0.70 lost −2.9 % a trade (n 23,546, 95 % CI −3.9 to −1.9).

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Over

1 of 11 top traders (9%)10 hold an outcome priced under 50%2 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

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Outcome Probabilities

Over51%

Under50%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Over1 trader

Total Value$15.2K

Total Shares30,000

Combined PnL-$814.24

Under10 traders

Total Value$14.2K

Total Shares29,468

Combined PnL+$415.93

Over — 9%Under — 91%

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
DA DaBossHogg	Overavg 53.2¢	$16.0K	$15.2K	-$814.24	13% 6-39 (45)
HO HomeRunHazardCTR	Underavg 46.9¢	$7.0K	$7.2K	+$170.06	56% 3687-2847 (6534)
KE keeptheblueflagflyinghighCTR	Underavg 49¢	$1.9K	$2.0K	+$19.87	50% 2523-2479 (5002)
0xheavy888CTR	Underavg 46¢	$1.4K	$1.4K	+$60	54% 496-419 (915)
0X 0x0A77exmmCTR	Underavg 47¢	$1.2K	$1.3K	+$26.59	44% 44-57 (101)
HI hi774cCTR	Underavg 48¢	$1.2K	$1.2K	+$0	22% 179-618 (797)
MU Multicoloured-SerfCTR	Underavg 46¢	$867	$904.69	+$37.7	49% 635-674 (1309)
nigiri99CTR	Underavg 48¢	$110.88	$110.88	+$0	51% 568-535 (1103)
0X 0x8g68hBa8tyH1946Bhjb674g3fuyUIGYUi4uhflksCTR<$100	Underavg 48¢	$55.24	$55.81	+$0.58	54% 286-244 (530)
0X 0x99F0d31fdced5B3A0e5Ee2867730A6644a6C9495-1779037126382CTR<$100	Underavg 47¢	$47.47	$48.48	+$1.01	48% 286-306 (592)
VeryLucky888CTR	Underavg 46.5¢	$1.9K	$12.57	+$100.13	53% 1351-1180 (2531)

DaBossHogg

Over

Invested

$15,964.24

Value

$15.2K

PnL

-$814.24

Record

13%

6-39 (45)

HomeRunHazardCTR

Under

Invested

$7,006.9

Value

$7.2K

PnL

+$170.06

Record

56%

3687-2847 (6534)

keeptheblueflagflyinghighCTR

Under

Invested

$1,947.56

Value

$2.0K

PnL

+$19.87

Record

50%

2523-2479 (5002)

0xheavy888CTR

Under

Invested

$1,380

Value

$1.4K

PnL

+$60

Record

54%

496-419 (915)

0x0A77exmmCTR

Under

Invested

$1,249.73

Value

$1.3K

PnL

+$26.59

Record

44%

44-57 (101)

hi774cCTR

Under

Invested

$1,212

Value

$1.2K

PnL

+$0

Record

22%

179-618 (797)

Multicoloured-SerfCTR

Under

Invested

$867

Value

$904.69

PnL

+$37.7

Record

49%

635-674 (1309)

nigiri99CTR

Under

Invested

$110.88

Value

$110.88

PnL

+$0

Record

51%

568-535 (1103)

0x8g68hBa8tyH1946Bhjb674g3fuyUIGYUi4uhflksCTR<$100

Under

Invested

$55.24

Value

$55.81

PnL

+$0.58

Record

54%

286-244 (530)

0x99F0d31fdced5B3A0e5Ee2867730A6644a6C9495-1779037126382CTR<$100

Under

Invested

$47.47

Value

$48.48

PnL

+$1.01

Record

48%

286-306 (592)

VeryLucky888CTR

Under

Invested

$1,860

Value

$12.57

PnL

+$100.13

Record

53%

1351-1180 (2531)

Research grade

NeutralOver at 51%

Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Side priced 50–60¢Full year, out of sample: 0.50–0.70 lost −2.9 % a trade (n 23,546, 95 % CI −3.9 to −1.9).

Smart Money Signal

Over

1 of 11 top traders (9%)10 hold an outcome priced under 50%2 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

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EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Over wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance52.7%

50.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.2¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$89.58

Max Loss

-$100.00

189.6

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.