Smart money holds the underdog side

Most tracked traders hold Cincinnati, while the market favors Iowa State (90%). 7 of 9 traders hold an outcome priced under 50%.

Historically, consensus on sides priced under 40¢ lost money after costs.

Spread: Iowa State (-2.5)

7 of 9 top Polymarket traders hold Cincinnati (78%) · Cincinnati at 11¢ · $729 held · ended Nov 14

Iowa State90¢Cincinnati10¢Ended Sat, Nov 14, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚠️

Avoid

Cincinnati

Consensus Traders

Cincinnati 78%

Total Value

$729.06

Combined PnL

-$40.55

Smart Money Entry

49.5¢ → 10.5¢

-79% since entry · 7 traders

Research grade

AvoidCincinnati at 11%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.

Consensus side under 30¢Full year, out of sample: 0.05–0.30 lost −8.1 % a trade (n 11,568), under 0.20 −20.5 % (n 3,615). Oct 22 backtest: −29.5 % (n 1,625). The strongest effect in every test.
Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Cincinnati

7 of 9 top traders (78%)Underdog side (market favors Iowa State 90%)7 hold an outcome priced under 50%6 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

Iowa State90%

Cincinnati11%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Cincinnati7 traders

Total Value$610.9

Total Shares1,312

Combined PnL-$38.1

Iowa State2 traders

Total Value$118.17

Total Shares236

Combined PnL-$2.45

Cincinnati — 78%Iowa State — 22%

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

6 traders

Top 2 hold 80%

Freshness

Fresh

0h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

75% of non-arb traders are on Cincinnati. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 80% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

ctrCincinnati 60% · 5

Aligned

Top 1000Cincinnati 75% · 8

Aligned

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
HO HomeRunHazardCTR	Cincinnatiavg 50¢	$396.06	$396.06	+$0	56% 3687-2847 (6534)
LI LightParadoxCTR	Cincinnatiavg 48¢	$96	$100	+$4	37% 964-1664 (2628)
0X 0x99F0d31fdced5B3A0e5Ee2867730A6644a6C9495-1779037126382	Iowa Stateavg 51.4¢	$102.35	$99.53	-$2.82	48% 288-310 (598)
MA MadridTimeCTR<$100	Cincinnatiavg 48¢	$34.82	$36.27	+$1.45	37% 972-1637 (2609)
65 6512395314597884CTR<$100	Cincinnatiavg 50¢	$35	$35	+$0	50% 3806-3775 (7581)
MU Multicoloured-Serf<$100	Iowa Stateavg 49¢	$18.26	$18.64	+$0.37	49% 635-674 (1309)
LI LimousinCTR<$100	Cincinnatiavg 49¢	$56.89	$18	-$38.89	36% 937-1647 (2584)
38 38791873984189CTR<$100	Cincinnatiavg 47¢	$14.42	$15.34	+$0.92	48% 3222-3520 (6742)
0X 0x8g68hBa8tyH1946Bhjb674g3fuyUIGYUi4uhflksCTR<$100	Cincinnatiavg 51¢	$15.81	$10.23	-$5.58	54% 286-244 (530)

HomeRunHazardCTR

Cincinnati

Invested

$396.06

Value

$396.06

PnL

+$0

Record

56%

3687-2847 (6534)

LightParadoxCTR

Cincinnati

Invested

$96

Value

$100

PnL

+$4

Record

37%

964-1664 (2628)

0x99F0d31fdced5B3A0e5Ee2867730A6644a6C9495-1779037126382

Iowa State

Invested

$102.35

Value

$99.53

PnL

-$2.82

Record

48%

288-310 (598)

MadridTimeCTR<$100

Cincinnati

Invested

$34.82

Value

$36.27

PnL

+$1.45

Record

37%

972-1637 (2609)

6512395314597884CTR<$100

Cincinnati

Invested

$35

Value

$35

PnL

+$0

Record

50%

3806-3775 (7581)

Multicoloured-Serf<$100

Iowa State

Invested

$18.26

Value

$18.64

PnL

+$0.37

Record

49%

635-674 (1309)

LimousinCTR<$100

Cincinnati

Invested

$56.89

Value

$18

PnL

-$38.89

Record

36%

937-1647 (2584)

38791873984189CTR<$100

Cincinnati

Invested

$14.42

Value

$15.34

PnL

+$0.92

Record

48%

3222-3520 (6742)

0x8g68hBa8tyH1946Bhjb674g3fuyUIGYUi4uhflksCTR<$100

Cincinnati

Invested

$15.81

Value

$10.23

PnL

-$5.58

Record

54%

286-244 (530)

Research grade

AvoidCincinnati at 11%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.

Consensus side under 30¢Full year, out of sample: 0.05–0.30 lost −8.1 % a trade (n 11,568), under 0.20 −20.5 % (n 3,615). Oct 22 backtest: −29.5 % (n 1,625). The strongest effect in every test.
Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.

Smart Money Signal

Cincinnati

7 of 9 top traders (78%)Underdog side (market favors Iowa State 90%)7 hold an outcome priced under 50%6 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

6 traders

Top 2 hold 80%

Freshness

Fresh

0h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

75% of non-arb traders are on Cincinnati. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 80% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

ctrCincinnati 60% · 5

Aligned

Top 1000Cincinnati 75% · 8

Aligned

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Cincinnati wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance12.0%

10.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.5¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$732.72

Max Loss

-$100.00

832.7

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.