Cincinnati vs. Iowa State

13 of 22 top Polymarket traders hold Iowa State (59%) · Iowa State at 55¢ · $55K held · ends Nov 14

Cincinnati46¢Iowa State54¢Ends Sat, Nov 14, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Iowa State

Consensus Traders

Iowa State 59%

1 arb excluded

Total Value

$54.6K

Combined PnL

$503.72

Smart Money Entry

55.7¢ → 54.5¢

-2% since entry · 13 traders

Research grade

NeutralIowa State at 55%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Side priced 50–60¢Full year, out of sample: 0.50–0.70 lost −2.9 % a trade (n 23,546, 95 % CI −3.9 to −1.9).

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Iowa State

13 of 22 top traders (59%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed9 hold an outcome priced under 50%6 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

Cincinnati46%

Iowa State55%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Cincinnati9 traders

Total Value$26.3K

Total Shares57,997

Combined PnL+$642.75

Iowa State13 traders

Total Value$27.9K

Total Shares50,388

Combined PnL-$139.03

Cincinnati — 41%Iowa State — 59%

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

10 traders

Top 2 hold 62%

Freshness

Fresh

0h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationBalanced

53% of non-arb traders are on Iowa State. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 62% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

The hand-picked list (1 on Iowa State) and the top 1000 (18 on Cincinnati) disagree here.

ctrIowa State 60% · 10

Aligned

Hand-pickedIowa State 100% · 1

Aligned

Top 1000Cincinnati 50% · 18

Diverging

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
LI LightParadoxCTR	Cincinnatiavg 44¢	$14.3K	$14.8K	+$487.71	37% 960-1662 (2622)
0xheavy888	Iowa Stateavg 56¢	$8.4K	$8.3K	-$75	54% 496-419 (915)
38 38791873984189	Iowa Stateavg 55.8¢	$6.8K	$6.7K	-$36.81	48% 3214-3513 (6727)
VE VenusianCTR	Cincinnatiavg 45¢	$5.5K	$5.5K	+$60.65	36% 948-1669 (2617)
65 6512395314597884	Iowa Stateavg 55.5¢	$5.6K	$5.5K	-$102.57	50% 3804-3775 (7579)
0X 0x0A77exmm	Iowa Stateavg 55.7¢	$3.0K	$3.0K	-$8.75	44% 44-57 (101)
0X 0xc33a100b8362bc732e78cce28c99739f173b3da3CTR	Cincinnatiavg 43¢	$2.0K	$2.0K	+$68.18	— 1-2 (3)
FO forecastication4	Iowa Stateavg 55¢	$2.0K	$2.0K	+$18.04	33% 168-335 (503)
nigiri99CTR	Cincinnatiavg 46¢	$1.8K	$1.7K	-$19.13	51% 568-535 (1103)
KE keeptheblueflagflyinghighCTR	Cincinnatiavg 45¢	$1.4K	$1.4K	+$15.09	50% 2523-2479 (5002)
FaroeseNationalist	Iowa Stateavg 55¢	$1.2K	$1.2K	+$11.11	52% 17-16 (33)
JU justwinsCTR	Cincinnatiavg 43¢	$758.5	$784.96	+$26.46	50% 118-116 (234)
0X 0x760907C8840491c8C86fdDB843D3f1d801786C4e-1771959662080	Iowa Stateavg 55¢	$440	$444	+$4	25% 341-1019 (1360)
GC GC-PARB<$100	Iowa Stateavg 54¢	$380	$386.25	+$6.25	37% 353-603 (956)
└ Iowa State leg	Iowa Stateavg 54¢	$270	$272.5	+$2.5
└ Cincinnati leg	Cincinnatiavg 44¢	$110	$113.75	+$3.75
NM NM-P	Iowa Stateavg 54¢	$296.16	$299.56	+$3.39	59% 3763-2587 (6350)
PA Pan9X	Iowa Stateavg 56.4¢	$296.82	$291.93	-$4.89	50% 1587-1614 (3201)
EF efntrick<$100	Iowa Stateavg 55.6¢	$55.6	$54.5	-$1.1	44% 86-111 (197)
FL FlaznorpCTR<$100	Cincinnatiavg 42¢	$49	$51.33	+$2.33	49% 3821-3983 (7804)
tradecraftCTR<$100	Cincinnatiavg 44¢	$21.59	$22.33	+$0.74	30% 335-776 (1111)
SE sentrioCTR<$100	Cincinnatiavg 42.5¢	$15.26	$15.98	+$0.72	42% 995-1363 (2358)
0X 0x66E7ce01C6831B8A2503D09eDD6167152Ee68BcD-1771870353938<$100	Iowa Stateavg 56¢	$13.99	$13.87	-$0.12	39% 1088-1672 (2760)
GH ghorrock<$100	Iowa Stateavg 57¢	$12.54	$12.32	-$0.22	52% 1721-1568 (3289)
VeryLucky888	Iowa Stateavg 55¢	$1.2K	$1.73	+$53.91	53% 1351-1180 (2531)

LightParadoxCTR

Cincinnati

Invested

$14,306.13

Value

$14.8K

PnL

+$487.71

Record

37%

960-1662 (2622)

0xheavy888

Iowa State

Invested

$8,399.98

Value

$8.3K

PnL

-$75

Record

54%

496-419 (915)

38791873984189

Iowa State

Invested

$6,775.62

Value

$6.7K

PnL

-$36.81

Record

48%

3214-3513 (6727)

VenusianCTR

Cincinnati

Invested

$5,458.26

Value

$5.5K

PnL

+$60.65

Record

36%

948-1669 (2617)

6512395314597884

Iowa State

Invested

$5,580.58

Value

$5.5K

PnL

-$102.57

Record

50%

3804-3775 (7579)

0x0A77exmm

Iowa State

Invested

$3,000.76

Value

$3.0K

PnL

-$8.75

Record

44%

44-57 (101)

0xc33a100b8362bc732e78cce28c99739f173b3da3CTR

Cincinnati

Invested

$1,954.54

Value

$2.0K

PnL

+$68.18

Record

—

1-2 (3)

forecastication4

Iowa State

Invested

$1,983.85

Value

$2.0K

PnL

+$18.04

Record

33%

168-335 (503)

nigiri99CTR

Cincinnati

Invested

$1,759.5

Value

$1.7K

PnL

-$19.13

Record

51%

568-535 (1103)

keeptheblueflagflyinghighCTR

Cincinnati

Invested

$1,357.83

Value

$1.4K

PnL

+$15.09

Record

50%

2523-2479 (5002)

FaroeseNationalist

Iowa State

Invested

$1,222.1

Value

$1.2K

PnL

+$11.11

Record

52%

17-16 (33)

justwinsCTR

Cincinnati

Invested

$758.5

Value

$784.96

PnL

+$26.46

Record

50%

118-116 (234)

0x760907C8840491c8C86fdDB843D3f1d801786C4e-1771959662080

Iowa State

Invested

$440

Value

$444

PnL

+$4

Record

25%

341-1019 (1360)

GC-PARB<$100

Iowa State

Invested

$380

Value

$386.25

PnL

+$6.25

Record

37%

353-603 (956)

Both legs:

Iowa State$27054¢+$2.5

Cincinnati$11044¢+$3.75

NM-P

Iowa State

Invested

$296.16

Value

$299.56

PnL

+$3.39

Record

59%

3763-2587 (6350)

Pan9X

Iowa State

Invested

$296.82

Value

$291.93

PnL

-$4.89

Record

50%

1587-1614 (3201)

efntrick<$100

Iowa State

Invested

$55.6

Value

$54.5

PnL

-$1.1

Record

44%

86-111 (197)

FlaznorpCTR<$100

Cincinnati

Invested

$49

Value

$51.33

PnL

+$2.33

Record

49%

3821-3983 (7804)

tradecraftCTR<$100

Cincinnati

Invested

$21.59

Value

$22.33

PnL

+$0.74

Record

30%

335-776 (1111)

sentrioCTR<$100

Cincinnati

Invested

$15.26

Value

$15.98

PnL

+$0.72

Record

42%

995-1363 (2358)

0x66E7ce01C6831B8A2503D09eDD6167152Ee68BcD-1771870353938<$100

Iowa State

Invested

$13.99

Value

$13.87

PnL

-$0.12

Record

39%

1088-1672 (2760)

ghorrock<$100

Iowa State

Invested

$12.54

Value

$12.32

PnL

-$0.22

Record

52%

1721-1568 (3289)

VeryLucky888

Iowa State

Invested

$1,177.04

Value

$1.73

PnL

+$53.91

Record

53%

1351-1180 (2531)

Research grade

NeutralIowa State at 55%

Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Side priced 50–60¢Full year, out of sample: 0.50–0.70 lost −2.9 % a trade (n 23,546, 95 % CI −3.9 to −1.9).

Smart Money Signal

Iowa State

13 of 22 top traders (59%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed9 hold an outcome priced under 50%6 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

10 traders

Top 2 hold 62%

Freshness

Fresh

0h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationBalanced

53% of non-arb traders are on Iowa State. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 62% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

The hand-picked list (1 on Iowa State) and the top 1000 (18 on Cincinnati) disagree here.

ctrIowa State 60% · 10

Aligned

Hand-pickedIowa State 100% · 1

Aligned

Top 1000Cincinnati 50% · 18

Diverging

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Iowa State wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance56.7%

54.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.2¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$76.26

Max Loss

-$100.00

176.3

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.