Cincinnati vs. Houston: O/U 61.5

2 of 8 top Polymarket traders hold Under (25%) · Under at 52¢ · $12K held · ends Nov 7

Over49¢Under51¢Ends Sat, Nov 7, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Under

Consensus Traders

Under 25%

1 arb excluded

Total Value

$12.1K

Combined PnL

$147.91

Smart Money Entry

49.4¢ → 51.5¢

+4% since entry · 2 traders

Research grade

NeutralUnder at 52%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Side priced 50–60¢Full year, out of sample: 0.50–0.70 lost −2.9 % a trade (n 23,546, 95 % CI −3.9 to −1.9).

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Under

2 of 8 top traders (25%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed6 hold an outcome priced under 50%3 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

Over49%

Under52%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Under2 traders

Total Value$7.0K

Total Shares13,742

Combined PnL+$392.69

Over6 traders

Total Value$4.7K

Total Shares9,644

Combined PnL-$244.79

Under — 25%Over — 75%

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

2 traders

Top 2 hold 100%

Freshness

Mature

13h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

25% of non-arb traders are on Under. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 100% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

whaleUnder 67% · 3

Aligned

sharpOver 100% · 1

Diverging

ctrOver 80% · 5

Diverging

Hand-pickedOver 100% · 1

Diverging

Top 1000Over 71% · 7

Diverging

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
MU Multicoloured-Serf	Underavg 49.4¢	$6.7K	$6.9K	+$392.27	47% 380-429 (809)
HO HomeRunHazardCTR	Overavg 51¢	$3.7K	$3.5K	-$143.94	54% 18337-15440 (33777)
38 38791873984189CTR	Overavg 51.9¢	$2.4K	$865.93	-$85.12	48% 62085-66960 (129045)
NM NM-PARB<$100	Overavg 51¢	$340.66	$335.31	-$5.36	64% 10131-5689 (15820)
└ Over leg	Overavg 51¢	$179.46	$172.46	-$7
└ Under leg	Underavg 49¢	$161.2	$162.85	+$1.64
GC GC-PCTR	Overavg 51¢	$178.5	$171.5	-$7	64% 10152-5754 (15906)
VeryLucky888CTR	Overavg 51¢	$1.0K	$146.03	-$8.64	58% 47334-34134 (81468)
PR primm<$100	Underavg 50.8¢	$86.28	$86.7	+$0.42	47% 1287-1468 (2755)
65 6512395314597884CTR<$100	Overavg 48.7¢	$15.29	$15.37	+$0.08	51% 4869-4738 (9607)
RL RLWGCTR<$100	Overavg 52¢	$2.6	$2.45	-$0.18	50% 8396-8445 (16841)

Multicoloured-Serf

Under

Invested

$6,697.87

Value

$6.9K

PnL

+$392.27

Record

47%

380-429 (809)

HomeRunHazardCTR

Over

Invested

$3,673.3

Value

$3.5K

PnL

-$143.94

Record

54%

18337-15440 (33777)

38791873984189CTR

Over

Invested

$2,397.11

Value

$865.93

PnL

-$85.12

Record

48%

62085-66960 (129045)

NM-PARB<$100

Over

Invested

$340.66

Value

$335.31

PnL

-$5.36

Record

64%

10131-5689 (15820)

Both legs:

Invested

$178.5

Value

$171.5

PnL

-$7

Record

64%

10152-5754 (15906)

VeryLucky888CTR

Over

Invested

$1,034.64

Value

$146.03

PnL

-$8.64

Record

58%

47334-34134 (81468)

primm<$100

Under

Invested

$86.28

Value

$86.7

PnL

+$0.42

Record

47%

1287-1468 (2755)

6512395314597884CTR<$100

Over

Invested

$15.29

Value

$15.37

PnL

+$0.08

Record

51%

4869-4738 (9607)

RLWGCTR<$100

Over

Invested

$2.6

Value

$2.45

PnL

-$0.18

Record

50%

8396-8445 (16841)

Research grade

NeutralUnder at 52%

Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Side priced 50–60¢Full year, out of sample: 0.50–0.70 lost −2.9 % a trade (n 23,546, 95 % CI −3.9 to −1.9).

Smart Money Signal

Under

2 of 8 top traders (25%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed6 hold an outcome priced under 50%3 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

2 traders

Top 2 hold 100%

Freshness

Mature

13h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

25% of non-arb traders are on Under. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 100% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

whaleUnder 67% · 3

Aligned

sharpOver 100% · 1

Diverging

ctrOver 80% · 5

Diverging

Hand-pickedOver 100% · 1

Diverging

Top 1000Over 71% · 7

Diverging

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Under wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance53.7%

51.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.2¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$86.06

Max Loss

-$100.00

186.1

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.