BYU vs. Utah: O/U 49.5

4 of 12 top Polymarket traders hold Under (33%) · Under at 51¢ · $26K held · ends Nov 7

Over50¢Under50¢Ends Sat, Nov 7, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Under

Consensus Traders

Under 33%

Total Value

$25.8K

Combined PnL

-$35.21

Smart Money Entry

51.8¢ → 50.5¢

-2% since entry · 4 traders

Research grade

NeutralUnder at 51%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Side priced 50–60¢Full year, out of sample: 0.50–0.70 lost −2.9 % a trade (n 23,546, 95 % CI −3.9 to −1.9).

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Under

4 of 12 top traders (33%)8 hold an outcome priced under 50%2 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

Over50%

Under51%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Under4 traders

Total Value$14.0K

Total Shares27,686

Combined PnL-$354.64

Over8 traders

Total Value$11.8K

Total Shares23,589

Combined PnL+$319.43

Under — 33%Over — 67%

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Surging

+3 pts consensus

Breadth

3 traders

Top 2 hold 84%

Freshness

Fresh

6h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

43% of non-arb traders are on Under. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 84% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

whaleOver 67% · 3

Diverging

ctrUnder 60% · 5

Aligned

Top 1000Over 57% · 7

Diverging

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
FE ferrariChampions2026	Underavg 51.8¢	$12.6K	$12.3K	-$310.95	42% 8168-11360 (19528)
HO HomeRunHazardCTR	Overavg 48¢	$4.5K	$4.7K	+$141.41	54% 18479-15550 (34029)
PR primmCTR	Overavg 48¢	$2.0K	$2.1K	+$62.5	47% 1316-1503 (2819)
38 38791873984189CTR	Overavg 48.3¢	$2.4K	$2.0K	+$44.77	48% 62396-67251 (129647)
MU Multicoloured-SerfCTR	Overavg 48¢	$1.9K	$1.9K	+$58.66	48% 405-446 (851)
LI lightotunnel35	Underavg 52¢	$1.6K	$1.5K	-$45.5	59% 103-72 (175)
nigiri99CTR	Overavg 49.8¢	$494.01	$496	+$4.47	46% 8770-10463 (19233)
0X 0x760907C8840491c8C86fdDB843D3f1d801786C4e-1771959662080CTR	Overavg 50¢	$300	$300	+$0	51% 2058-1996 (4054)
VE VenusianCTR	Overavg 48¢	$191.49	$197.35	+$5.86	49% 1843-1935 (3778)
NM NM-PCTR	Overavg 49¢	$172.52	$174.28	+$1.76	64% 10182-5720 (15902)
VeryLucky888<$100	Underavg 50¢	$92.7	$93.63	+$0.93	58% 47503-34297 (81800)
SE sentrio<$100	Underavg 50¢	$88.27	$89.15	+$0.88	50% 26409-26025 (52434)

ferrariChampions2026

Under

Invested

$12,577.85

Value

$12.3K

PnL

-$310.95

Record

42%

8168-11360 (19528)

HomeRunHazardCTR

Over

Invested

$4,522.88

Value

$4.7K

PnL

+$141.41

Record

54%

18479-15550 (34029)

primmCTR

Over

Invested

$2,000

Value

$2.1K

PnL

+$62.5

Record

47%

1316-1503 (2819)

38791873984189CTR

Over

Invested

$2,368.5

Value

$2.0K

PnL

+$44.77

Record

48%

62396-67251 (129647)

Multicoloured-SerfCTR

Over

Invested

$1,877

Value

$1.9K

PnL

+$58.66

Record

48%

405-446 (851)

lightotunnel35

Under

Invested

$1,577.44

Value

$1.5K

PnL

-$45.5

Record

59%

103-72 (175)

nigiri99CTR

Over

Invested

$494.01

Value

$496

PnL

+$4.47

Record

46%

8770-10463 (19233)

0x760907C8840491c8C86fdDB843D3f1d801786C4e-1771959662080CTR

Over

Invested

$300

Value

$300

PnL

+$0

Record

51%

2058-1996 (4054)

VenusianCTR

Over

Invested

$191.49

Value

$197.35

PnL

+$5.86

Record

49%

1843-1935 (3778)

NM-PCTR

Over

Invested

$172.52

Value

$174.28

PnL

+$1.76

Record

64%

10182-5720 (15902)

VeryLucky888<$100

Under

Invested

$92.7

Value

$93.63

PnL

+$0.93

Record

58%

47503-34297 (81800)

sentrio<$100

Under

Invested

$88.27

Value

$89.15

PnL

+$0.88

Record

50%

26409-26025 (52434)

Research grade

NeutralUnder at 51%

Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Side priced 50–60¢Full year, out of sample: 0.50–0.70 lost −2.9 % a trade (n 23,546, 95 % CI −3.9 to −1.9).

Smart Money Signal

Under

4 of 12 top traders (33%)8 hold an outcome priced under 50%2 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Surging

+3 pts consensus

Breadth

3 traders

Top 2 hold 84%

Freshness

Fresh

6h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

43% of non-arb traders are on Under. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 84% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

whaleOver 67% · 3

Diverging

ctrUnder 60% · 5

Aligned

Top 1000Over 57% · 7

Diverging

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Under wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance52.7%

50.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.2¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$89.58

Max Loss

-$100.00

189.6

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.