Spread: Butler (-7.5)
2 of 8 top Polymarket traders hold Marist (25%) · Marist at 57¢ · $3K held · ends Nov 14
⚖️
Neutral
Marist
8
Marist 25%
$3.0K
$8.2
56¢ → 57¢
+2% since entry · 2 traders
Research grade
NeutralMarist at 57%
No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).
- Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
- Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
- Side priced 50–60¢Full year, out of sample: 0.50–0.70 lost −2.9 % a trade (n 23,546, 95 % CI −3.9 to −1.9).
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
2 of 8 top traders (25%)6 hold an outcome priced under 50%4 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
Signal Intelligence
Momentum
Surging
-3 pts consensus
Breadth
1 traders
Top 2 hold 100%
Freshness
Fresh
3h old
Flip Quality
Clean
0 consensus flips
14% of non-arb traders are on Marist. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 100% of that side's value.
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
MD mde4life1986 | Maristavg 56¢ | $1.8K | $1.8K | +$31.61 | 3% 2-67 (69) |
 nigiri99CTR | Butleravg 44¢ | $941.6 | $920.2 | -$21.4 | 52% 523-489 (1012) |
FO Forecastication2CTR | Butleravg 43.5¢ | $133.68 | $132.01 | -$1.67 | 45% 242-293 (535) |
OD OddstormCTR<$100 | Butleravg 43.9¢ | $88.28 | $85.48 | -$2.8 | 32% 95-201 (296) |
OV overtimemarkets.xyz-singlesCTR | Butleravg 50¢ | $2.0K | $22 | +$1 | 72% 120-47 (167) |
TO topdogbigboiCTR<$100 | Butleravg 41¢ | $15.7 | $16.85 | +$1.15 | 37% 909-1532 (2441) |
XT xtxpleasecallmeCTR<$100 | Butleravg 43¢ | $10 | $10.23 | +$0.24 | 39% 3605-5672 (9277) |
GH ghorrock<$100 | Maristavg 57¢ | $7.42 | $7.48 | +$0.07 | 52% 1608-1475 (3083) |
Invested
$1,770.43
Value
$1.8K
PnL
+$31.61
Record
3%
2-67 (69)
nigiri99CTRInvested
$941.6
Value
$920.2
PnL
-$21.4
Record
52%
523-489 (1012)
Invested
$133.68
Value
$132.01
PnL
-$1.67
Record
45%
242-293 (535)
Invested
$88.28
Value
$85.48
PnL
-$2.8
Record
32%
95-201 (296)
Invested
$2,000
Value
$22
PnL
+$1
Record
72%
120-47 (167)
Invested
$15.7
Value
$16.85
PnL
+$1.15
Record
37%
909-1532 (2441)
Invested
$10
Value
$10.23
PnL
+$0.24
Record
39%
3605-5672 (9277)
Invested
$7.42
Value
$7.48
PnL
+$0.07
Record
52%
1608-1475 (3083)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
57.0¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.2¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.