Buffalo vs. Miami (OH): O/U 43.5

14 of 20 top Polymarket traders hold Over (70%) · Over at 65¢ · $67K held · ended Nov 4

Over65¢Under35¢Ended Wed, Nov 4, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Over

Consensus Traders

Over 70%

Total Value

$67.5K

Combined PnL

$781.26

Smart Money Entry

54¢ → 65¢

+20% since entry · 14 traders

Research grade

NeutralOver at 65%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Over

14 of 20 top traders (70%)6 hold an outcome priced under 50%9 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

Over65%

Under35%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Over14 traders

Total Value$66.0K

Total Shares119,466

Combined PnL+$842.27

Under6 traders

Total Value$1.5K

Total Shares3,411

Combined PnL-$61.01

Over — 70%Under — 30%

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Building

+1 pts consensus

Breadth

8 traders

Top 2 hold 80%

Freshness

Fresh

3h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

89% of non-arb traders are on Over. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 80% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

whaleOver 100% · 4

Aligned

ctrOver 67% · 3

Aligned

Top 1000Over 89% · 9

Aligned

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
CH chubbytoro	Overavg 54¢	$49.3K	$49.8K	+$456.91	45% 89-111 (200)
MU Multicoloured-Serf	Overavg 54¢	$6.0K	$6.0K	+$0	48% 276-299 (575)
HO HomeRunHazard	Overavg 54¢	$5.9K	$5.9K	-$23.4	54% 17767-14928 (32695)
PU purplegatto	Overavg 55¢	$1.8K	$2.2K	+$396.36	50% 6074-6177 (12251)
SE sentrioCTR	Underavg 45¢	$1.1K	$1.1K	+$11.34	50% 25264-24973 (50237)
PR primm	Overavg 54¢	$848.05	$855.9	+$7.85	46% 1196-1386 (2582)
TH TheComboConnoisseur	Overavg 53.7¢	$537.47	$540	+$2.53	53% 1075-949 (2024)
nigiri99	Overavg 55.1¢	$306.67	$303.57	-$3.1	46% 8263-9657 (17920)
0X 0x760907C8840491c8C86fdDB843D3f1d801786C4e-1771959662080CTR	Underavg 46.7¢	$195.11	$189.91	-$5.2	51% 1720-1644 (3364)
38 38791873984189CTR	Underavg 46¢	$235.36	$170.97	-$62.08	48% 14412-15920 (30332)
0X 0x8g68hBa8tyH1946Bhjb674g3fuyUIGYUi4uhflks	Overavg 54¢	$156.9	$155.97	-$0.93	53% 3158-2757 (5915)
JU justaluckydude<$100	Overavg 61.7¢	$65.45	$68.9	+$3.45	53% 11571-10123 (21694)
OM omnibus-076daa<$100	Overavg 52.7¢	$55.39	$56.7	+$1.31	50% 20222-20549 (40771)
LI LightParadox<$100	Overavg 52.7¢	$52.75	$54	+$1.25	53% 921-802 (1723)
65 6512395314597884CTR<$100	Underavg 41¢	$33.01	$28.09	-$4.92	51% 4510-4384 (8894)
VE Venusian<$100	Overavg 52.7¢	$16.35	$16.74	+$0.39	53% 928-828 (1756)
CM cm2897<$100	Overavg 67.7¢	$16.92	$16.63	-$0.29	51% 2082-1999 (4081)
BO BoggsFromShawshankCTR<$100	Underavg 45¢	$16.36	$16.54	+$0.18	51% 1101-1062 (2163)
SU suntoriCTR<$100	Underavg 46.7¢	$13.12	$12.77	-$0.35	45% 13709-16632 (30341)
SM smithagent<$100	Overavg 67.7¢	$3.38	$3.33	-$0.06	48% 5299-5685 (10984)

chubbytoro

Over

Invested

$49,346.52

Value

$49.8K

PnL

+$456.91

Record

45%

89-111 (200)

Multicoloured-Serf

Over

Invested

$5,977

Value

$6.0K

PnL

+$0

Record

48%

276-299 (575)

HomeRunHazard

Over

Invested

$5,923

Value

$5.9K

PnL

-$23.4

Record

54%

17767-14928 (32695)

purplegatto

Over

Invested

$1,816.67

Value

$2.2K

PnL

+$396.36

Record

50%

6074-6177 (12251)

sentrioCTR

Under

Invested

$1,070.52

Value

$1.1K

PnL

+$11.34

Record

50%

25264-24973 (50237)

primm

Over

Invested

$848.05

Value

$855.9

PnL

+$7.85

Record

46%

1196-1386 (2582)

TheComboConnoisseur

Over

Invested

$537.47

Value

$540

PnL

+$2.53

Record

53%

1075-949 (2024)

nigiri99

Over

Invested

$306.67

Value

$303.57

PnL

-$3.1

Record

46%

8263-9657 (17920)

0x760907C8840491c8C86fdDB843D3f1d801786C4e-1771959662080CTR

Under

Invested

$195.11

Value

$189.91

PnL

-$5.2

Record

51%

1720-1644 (3364)

38791873984189CTR

Under

Invested

$235.36

Value

$170.97

PnL

-$62.08

Record

48%

14412-15920 (30332)

0x8g68hBa8tyH1946Bhjb674g3fuyUIGYUi4uhflks

Over

Invested

$156.9

Value

$155.97

PnL

-$0.93

Record

53%

3158-2757 (5915)

justaluckydude<$100

Over

Invested

$65.45

Value

$68.9

PnL

+$3.45

Record

53%

11571-10123 (21694)

omnibus-076daa<$100

Over

Invested

$55.39

Value

$56.7

PnL

+$1.31

Record

50%

20222-20549 (40771)

LightParadox<$100

Over

Invested

$52.75

Value

$54

PnL

+$1.25

Record

53%

921-802 (1723)

6512395314597884CTR<$100

Under

Invested

$33.01

Value

$28.09

PnL

-$4.92

Record

51%

4510-4384 (8894)

Venusian<$100

Over

Invested

$16.35

Value

$16.74

PnL

+$0.39

Record

53%

928-828 (1756)

cm2897<$100

Over

Invested

$16.92

Value

$16.63

PnL

-$0.29

Record

51%

2082-1999 (4081)

BoggsFromShawshankCTR<$100

Under

Invested

$16.36

Value

$16.54

PnL

+$0.18

Record

51%

1101-1062 (2163)

suntoriCTR<$100

Under

Invested

$13.12

Value

$12.77

PnL

-$0.35

Record

45%

13709-16632 (30341)

smithagent<$100

Over

Invested

$3.38

Value

$3.33

PnL

-$0.06

Record

48%

5299-5685 (10984)

Research grade

NeutralOver at 65%

Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

Smart Money Signal

Over

14 of 20 top traders (70%)6 hold an outcome priced under 50%9 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Building

+1 pts consensus

Breadth

8 traders

Top 2 hold 80%

Freshness

Fresh

3h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

89% of non-arb traders are on Over. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 80% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

whaleOver 100% · 4

Aligned

ctrOver 67% · 3

Aligned

Top 1000Over 89% · 9

Aligned

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Over wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance67.1%

65.0¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.1¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$48.98

Max Loss

-$100.00

149.0

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.