Smart money holds the underdog side

Most tracked traders hold Buffalo, while the market favors Miami (OH) (52%). 7 of 10 traders hold an outcome priced under 50%.

Spread: Miami (OH) (-6.5)

7 of 10 top Polymarket traders hold Buffalo (70%) · Buffalo at 49¢ · $26K held · ends Nov 4

Miami (OH)52¢Buffalo48¢Ends Wed, Nov 4, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Buffalo

Consensus Traders

Buffalo 70%

5 arb excluded

Total Value

$25.8K

Combined PnL

-$33.78

Smart Money Entry

49.3¢ → 48.5¢

-2% since entry · 7 traders

Research grade

NeutralBuffalo at 49%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Side priced 30–50¢Full year, out of sample: 0.30–0.50 lost −4.8 % a trade (n 16,830, 95 % CI −6.6 to −3.1), worse than the plain consensus.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Buffalo

7 of 10 top traders (70%)Underdog side (market favors Miami (OH) 52%)5 arbitrage traders dimmed7 hold an outcome priced under 50%5 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

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Outcome Probabilities

Miami (OH)52%

Buffalo49%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Buffalo7 traders

Total Value$7.1K

Total Shares14,335

Combined PnL-$30.26

Miami (OH)3 traders

Total Value$85.07

Total Shares178

Combined PnL-$3.52

Buffalo — 70%Miami (OH) — 30%

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
HO HomeRunHazardARB<$100	Buffaloavg 48.9¢	$8.8K	$8.8K	-$63.24	54% 17767-14928 (32695)
└ Buffalo leg	Buffaloavg 48.9¢	$6.9K	$6.9K	-$63.14
└ Miami (OH) leg	Miami (OH)avg 50¢	$1.9K	$1.9K	-$0.1
MU Multicoloured-SerfARB<$100	Buffaloavg 49¢	$7.9K	$8.1K	+$179.15	48% 276-299 (575)
└ Buffalo leg	Buffaloavg 49¢	$4.7K	$4.7K	-$50.95
└ Miami (OH) leg	Miami (OH)avg 48.1¢	$3.2K	$3.5K	+$230.1
PR primmCTR	Buffaloavg 48¢	$2.2K	$2.2K	+$22.82	46% 1196-1386 (2582)
nigiri99CTR	Buffaloavg 50¢	$1.9K	$2.0K	+$19.27	46% 8263-9657 (17920)
SE sentrioCTR	Buffaloavg 51.5¢	$1.5K	$1.4K	-$86.12	50% 25264-24973 (50237)
0X 0x8efa1ea8ee2d456a051ae2985079a1e3c9aa894cCTR	Buffaloavg 48¢	$1.2K	$1.2K	+$12.51	46% 859-999 (1858)
38 38791873984189ARB<$100	Buffaloavg 50.7¢	$1.4K	$1.1K	+$18.66	48% 14412-15920 (30332)
└ Miami (OH) leg	Miami (OH)avg 48¢	$534.83	$574.03	+$44.32
└ Buffalo leg	Buffaloavg 50.7¢	$587.45	$561.79	-$25.66
SN SnakeBallARB<$100	Miami (OH)avg 48¢	$372.96	$379.67	+$4.9	50% 35629-35110 (70739)
└ Miami (OH) leg	Miami (OH)avg 48¢	$199.2	$195.05	-$4.15
└ Buffalo leg	Buffaloavg 48¢	$173.76	$184.62	+$9.05
0X 0x8g68hBa8tyH1946Bhjb674g3fuyUIGYUi4uhflksCTR	Buffaloavg 48.1¢	$220.4	$222.07	+$1.67	53% 3158-2757 (5915)
GH ghorrockARB<$100	Miami (OH)avg 49.9¢	$241.99	$172.04	+$1.88	58% 18645-13742 (32387)
└ Miami (OH) leg	Miami (OH)avg 49.9¢	$105.52	$108.96	+$3.04
└ Buffalo leg	Buffaloavg 50¢	$65.01	$63.08	-$1.16
FO Forecastication2CTR<$100	Buffaloavg 50¢	$54.1	$52.77	+$0.1	50% 7350-7489 (14839)
MA MadridTime<$100	Miami (OH)avg 49.7¢	$49.75	$47	-$2.75	52% 847-783 (1630)
VE Venusian<$100	Miami (OH)avg 48.7¢	$25.23	$24.32	-$0.9	53% 928-828 (1756)
SK skembinatorCTR<$100	Buffaloavg 49.8¢	$19.9	$19.4	-$0.5	52% 556-514 (1070)
BO BoggsFromShawshank<$100	Miami (OH)avg 51¢	$13.62	$13.75	+$0.13	51% 1101-1062 (2163)

HomeRunHazardARB<$100

Buffalo

Invested

$8,808.7

Value

$8.8K

PnL

-$63.24

Record

54%

17767-14928 (32695)

Both legs:

Buffalo$6,929.8248.9¢-$63.14

Miami (OH)$1,878.8850¢-$0.1

Multicoloured-SerfARB<$100

Buffalo

Invested

$7,936.58

Value

$8.1K

PnL

+$179.15

Record

48%

276-299 (575)

Both legs:

Buffalo$4,713.4549¢-$50.95

Miami (OH)$3,223.1348.1¢+$230.1

primmCTR

Buffalo

Invested

$2,191.14

Value

$2.2K

PnL

+$22.82

Record

46%

1196-1386 (2582)

nigiri99CTR

Buffalo

Invested

$1,926.5

Value

$2.0K

PnL

+$19.27

Record

46%

8263-9657 (17920)

sentrioCTR

Buffalo

Invested

$1,495.7

Value

$1.4K

PnL

-$86.12

Record

50%

25264-24973 (50237)

0x8efa1ea8ee2d456a051ae2985079a1e3c9aa894cCTR

Buffalo

Invested

$1,200.96

Value

$1.2K

PnL

+$12.51

Record

46%

859-999 (1858)

38791873984189ARB<$100

Buffalo

Invested

$1,363.59

Value

$1.1K

PnL

+$18.66

Record

48%

14412-15920 (30332)

Both legs:

Miami (OH)$534.8348¢+$44.32

Buffalo$587.4550.7¢-$25.66

SnakeBallARB<$100

Miami (OH)

Invested

$372.96

Value

$379.67

PnL

+$4.9

Record

50%

35629-35110 (70739)

Both legs:

Miami (OH)$199.248¢-$4.15

Buffalo$173.7648¢+$9.05

0x8g68hBa8tyH1946Bhjb674g3fuyUIGYUi4uhflksCTR

Buffalo

Invested

$220.4

Value

$222.07

PnL

+$1.67

Record

53%

3158-2757 (5915)

ghorrockARB<$100

Miami (OH)

Invested

$241.99

Value

$172.04

PnL

+$1.88

Record

58%

18645-13742 (32387)

Both legs:

Miami (OH)$105.5249.9¢+$3.04

Buffalo$65.0150¢-$1.16

Forecastication2CTR<$100

Buffalo

Invested

$54.1

Value

$52.77

PnL

+$0.1

Record

50%

7350-7489 (14839)

MadridTime<$100

Miami (OH)

Invested

$49.75

Value

$47

PnL

-$2.75

Record

52%

847-783 (1630)

Venusian<$100

Miami (OH)

Invested

$25.23

Value

$24.32

PnL

-$0.9

Record

53%

928-828 (1756)

skembinatorCTR<$100

Buffalo

Invested

$19.9

Value

$19.4

PnL

-$0.5

Record

52%

556-514 (1070)

BoggsFromShawshank<$100

Miami (OH)

Invested

$13.62

Value

$13.75

PnL

+$0.13

Record

51%

1101-1062 (2163)

Research grade

NeutralBuffalo at 49%

Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Side priced 30–50¢Full year, out of sample: 0.30–0.50 lost −4.8 % a trade (n 16,830, 95 % CI −6.6 to −3.1), worse than the plain consensus.

Smart Money Signal

Buffalo

7 of 10 top traders (70%)Underdog side (market favors Miami (OH) 52%)5 arbitrage traders dimmed7 hold an outcome priced under 50%5 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

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EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Buffalo wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance50.7%

48.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.2¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$97.04

Max Loss

-$100.00

197.0

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.