Buffalo vs. Ball State: O/U 47.5

4 of 10 top Polymarket traders hold Under (40%) · Under at 66¢ · $10K held · ended Nov 12

Over35¢Under65¢Ended Thu, Nov 12, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Under

Consensus Traders

Under 40%

1 arb excluded

Total Value

$9.7K

Combined PnL

$354.97

Smart Money Entry

58.9¢ → 65.5¢

+11% since entry · 4 traders

Research grade

NeutralUnder at 66%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Under

4 of 10 top traders (40%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed6 hold an outcome priced under 50%4 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

Over35%

Under66%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Under4 traders

Total Value$5.9K

Total Shares8,421

Combined PnL+$753.16

Over6 traders

Total Value$901.78

Total Shares2,851

Combined PnL-$398.19

Under — 40%Over — 60%

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

3 traders

Top 2 hold 95%

Freshness

Fresh

0h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

33% of non-arb traders are on Under. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 95% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

ctrOver 83% · 6

Diverging

Top 1000Over 67% · 9

Diverging

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
65 6512395314597884	Underavg 57.3¢	$2.5K	$3.0K	+$505.76	50% 3301-3258 (6559)
RN1ARB<$100	Overavg 39.7¢	$3.2K	$2.9K	-$286.14	57% 4059-3079 (7138)
└ Under leg	Underavg 60¢	$1.3K	$1.5K	+$245.89
└ Over leg	Overavg 39.7¢	$1.9K	$1.4K	-$532.02
PR primm	Underavg 61¢	$2.4K	$2.6K	+$179.74	61% 870-566 (1436)
0X 0x228B8d11EBa89BF1c554f8879a9293B7106DaF4c-1765442354872CTR	Overavg 43.4¢	$490.08	$321.77	-$168.32	55% 719-584 (1303)
38 38791873984189	Underavg 53.4¢	$306.54	$310.41	+$62.11	48% 1430-1573 (3003)
PA PacersThreeandahalfCTR	Overavg 50¢	$329.5	$224.06	-$105.44	61% 1010-635 (1645)
BI biying88888CTR	Overavg 50¢	$290.5	$209.16	-$81.34	37% 121-203 (324)
KE keeptheblueflagflyinghighCTR<$100	Overavg 41¢	$90.97	$63.24	-$27.74	53% 1852-1667 (3519)
CM cm2897CTR<$100	Overavg 35¢	$60.2	$58.48	-$1.72	49% 1112-1143 (2255)
PA Pan9X<$100	Underavg 55.5¢	$95.99	$46.18	+$5.55	49% 693-734 (1427)
LR lryyyCTR<$100	Overavg 44¢	$38.72	$25.08	-$13.64	45% 257-310 (567)

6512395314597884

Under

Invested

$2,467.63

Value

$3.0K

PnL

+$505.76

Record

50%

3301-3258 (6559)

RN1ARB<$100

Over

Invested

$3,168.04

Value

$2.9K

PnL

-$286.14

Record

57%

4059-3079 (7138)

Both legs:

Under$1,280.2860¢+$245.89

Over$1,887.7639.7¢-$532.02

primm

Under

Invested

$2,437.56

Value

$2.6K

PnL

+$179.74

Record

61%

870-566 (1436)

0x228B8d11EBa89BF1c554f8879a9293B7106DaF4c-1765442354872CTR

Over

Invested

$490.08

Value

$321.77

PnL

-$168.32

Record

55%

719-584 (1303)

38791873984189

Under

Invested

$306.54

Value

$310.41

PnL

+$62.11

Record

48%

1430-1573 (3003)

PacersThreeandahalfCTR

Over

Invested

$329.5

Value

$224.06

PnL

-$105.44

Record

61%

1010-635 (1645)

biying88888CTR

Over

Invested

$290.5

Value

$209.16

PnL

-$81.34

Record

37%

121-203 (324)

keeptheblueflagflyinghighCTR<$100

Over

Invested

$90.97

Value

$63.24

PnL

-$27.74

Record

53%

1852-1667 (3519)

cm2897CTR<$100

Over

Invested

$60.2

Value

$58.48

PnL

-$1.72

Record

49%

1112-1143 (2255)

Pan9X<$100

Under

Invested

$95.99

Value

$46.18

PnL

+$5.55

Record

49%

693-734 (1427)

lryyyCTR<$100

Over

Invested

$38.72

Value

$25.08

PnL

-$13.64

Record

45%

257-310 (567)

Research grade

NeutralUnder at 66%

Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

Smart Money Signal

Under

4 of 10 top traders (40%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed6 hold an outcome priced under 50%4 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

3 traders

Top 2 hold 95%

Freshness

Fresh

0h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

33% of non-arb traders are on Under. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 95% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

ctrOver 83% · 6

Diverging

Top 1000Over 67% · 9

Diverging

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Under wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance67.6%

65.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.1¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$47.90

Max Loss

-$100.00

147.9

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.