Smart money holds the underdog side

Most tracked traders hold Under, while the market favors Over (53%). 3 of 6 traders hold an outcome priced under 50%.

Buffalo vs. Ball State: O/U 41.5

3 of 6 top Polymarket traders hold Under (50%) · Under at 48¢ · $4K held · ended Nov 12

Over53¢Under47¢Ended Thu, Nov 12, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Under

Consensus Traders

Under 50%

2 arb excluded

Total Value

$3.7K

Combined PnL

$62.95

Smart Money Entry

45.4¢ → 47.5¢

+5% since entry · 3 traders

Research grade

NeutralUnder at 48%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Side priced 30–50¢Full year, out of sample: 0.30–0.50 lost −4.8 % a trade (n 16,830, 95 % CI −6.6 to −3.1), worse than the plain consensus.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Under

3 of 6 top traders (50%)Underdog side (market favors Over 53%)2 arbitrage traders dimmed3 hold an outcome priced under 50%3 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

Over53%

Under48%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Under3 traders

Total Value$1.4K

Total Shares2,753

Combined PnL+$85.78

Over3 traders

Total Value$671.72

Total Shares1,320

Combined PnL-$22.83

Under — 50%Over — 50%

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

3 traders

Top 2 hold 100%

Freshness

Fresh

0h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

50% of non-arb traders are on Under. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 100% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

ctrOver 67% · 3

Diverging

Top 1000Under 50% · 6

Aligned

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
RN1ARB<$100	Overavg 53.8¢	$1.4K	$1.3K	-$107.37	57% 4059-3079 (7138)
└ Over leg	Overavg 53.8¢	$981.66	$812.56	-$169.1
└ Under leg	Underavg 48¢	$395.04	$456.77	+$61.73
PR primmCTR	Underavg 44.7¢	$982.68	$1.1K	+$93.36	61% 870-566 (1436)
BI biying88888	Overavg 52¢	$674.44	$661.47	-$12.97	37% 121-203 (324)
65 6512395314597884ARB<$100	Overavg 56.5¢	$418	$400	-$18	50% 3301-3258 (6559)
└ Over leg	Overavg 56.5¢	$226	$212	-$14
└ Under leg	Underavg 48¢	$192	$188	-$4
38 38791873984189CTR	Underavg 48¢	$352.44	$312.78	-$8.46	48% 1430-1573 (3003)
PA Pan9X<$100	Overavg 57.9¢	$79.39	$9.35	-$9.72	49% 693-734 (1427)
0X 0x228B8d11EBa89BF1c554f8879a9293B7106DaF4c-1765442354872CTR<$100	Underavg 38¢	$1.9	$2.78	+$0.88	55% 719-584 (1303)
KE keeptheblueflagflyinghigh<$100	Overavg 51¢	$1.04	$0.91	-$0.13	53% 1852-1667 (3519)

RN1ARB<$100

Over

Invested

$1,376.7

Value

$1.3K

PnL

-$107.37

Record

57%

4059-3079 (7138)

Both legs:

Over$981.6653.8¢-$169.1

Under$395.0448¢+$61.73

primmCTR

Under

Invested

$982.68

Value

$1.1K

PnL

+$93.36

Record

61%

870-566 (1436)

biying88888

Over

Invested

$674.44

Value

$661.47

PnL

-$12.97

Record

37%

121-203 (324)

6512395314597884ARB<$100

Over

Invested

$418

Value

$400

PnL

-$18

Record

50%

3301-3258 (6559)

Both legs:

Invested

$352.44

Value

$312.78

PnL

-$8.46

Record

48%

1430-1573 (3003)

Pan9X<$100

Over

Invested

$79.39

Value

$9.35

PnL

-$9.72

Record

49%

693-734 (1427)

0x228B8d11EBa89BF1c554f8879a9293B7106DaF4c-1765442354872CTR<$100

Under

Invested

$1.9

Value

$2.78

PnL

+$0.88

Record

55%

719-584 (1303)

keeptheblueflagflyinghigh<$100

Over

Invested

$1.04

Value

$0.91

PnL

-$0.13

Record

53%

1852-1667 (3519)

Research grade

NeutralUnder at 48%

Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Side priced 30–50¢Full year, out of sample: 0.30–0.50 lost −4.8 % a trade (n 16,830, 95 % CI −6.6 to −3.1), worse than the plain consensus.

Smart Money Signal

Under

3 of 6 top traders (50%)Underdog side (market favors Over 53%)2 arbitrage traders dimmed3 hold an outcome priced under 50%3 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

3 traders

Top 2 hold 100%

Freshness

Fresh

0h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

50% of non-arb traders are on Under. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 100% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

ctrOver 67% · 3

Diverging

Top 1000Under 50% · 6

Aligned

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Under wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance49.7%

47.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.2¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$101.01

Max Loss

-$100.00

201.0

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.