Buffalo vs. Ball State: O/U 35.5
6 of 7 top Polymarket traders hold Over (86%) · Over at 73¢ · $2K held · ended Nov 12
⚖️
Neutral
Over
7
Over 86%
$1.9K
-$125.35
65.2¢ → 72.5¢
+11% since entry · 6 traders
Research grade
NeutralOver at 73%
No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).
- Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
- Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
6 of 7 top traders (86%)1 holds an outcome priced under 50%2 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
Signal Intelligence
Momentum
Flat
+0 pts consensus
Breadth
5 traders
Top 2 hold 67%
Freshness
Fresh
0h old
Flip Quality
Clean
0 consensus flips
83% of non-arb traders are on Over. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 67% of that side's value.
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
PR primmCTR | Underavg 34.7¢ | $684.56 | $542.03 | -$142.53 | 61% 870-566 (1436) |
 RN1 | Overavg 64¢ | $493.44 | $508.86 | +$15.42 | 57% 4059-3079 (7138) |
38 38791873984189 | Overavg 63.8¢ | $396.49 | $421.78 | +$25.29 | 48% 1430-1573 (3003) |
0X 0x228B8d11EBa89BF1c554f8879a9293B7106DaF4c-1765442354872 | Overavg 69¢ | $345 | $317.5 | -$27.5 | 55% 719-584 (1303) |
65 6512395314597884 | Overavg 64¢ | $128 | $132 | +$4 | 50% 3301-3258 (6559) |
JU justaluckydude<$100 | Overavg 69¢ | $13.8 | $14 | +$0.2 | 38% 222-363 (585) |
LR lryyy<$100 | Overavg 66¢ | $5.82 | $5.6 | -$0.22 | 45% 257-310 (567) |
Invested
$684.56
Value
$542.03
PnL
-$142.53
Record
61%
870-566 (1436)
RN1Invested
$493.44
Value
$508.86
PnL
+$15.42
Record
57%
4059-3079 (7138)
Invested
$396.49
Value
$421.78
PnL
+$25.29
Record
48%
1430-1573 (3003)
Invested
$345
Value
$317.5
PnL
-$27.5
Record
55%
719-584 (1303)
Invested
$128
Value
$132
PnL
+$4
Record
50%
3301-3258 (6559)
Invested
$13.8
Value
$14
PnL
+$0.2
Record
38%
222-363 (585)
Invested
$5.82
Value
$5.6
PnL
-$0.22
Record
45%
257-310 (567)
Chat
EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
72.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.0¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.