Spread: Ball State (-2.5)

3 of 9 top Polymarket traders hold Buffalo (33%) · Buffalo at 56¢ · $4K held · ended Nov 12

Ball State45¢Buffalo55¢Ended Thu, Nov 12, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Buffalo

Consensus Traders

Buffalo 33%

Total Value

$3.5K

Combined PnL

$256.16

Smart Money Entry

46.7¢ → 55.5¢

+19% since entry · 3 traders

Research grade

NeutralBuffalo at 56%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Side priced 50–60¢Full year, out of sample: 0.50–0.70 lost −2.9 % a trade (n 23,546, 95 % CI −3.9 to −1.9).

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Buffalo

3 of 9 top traders (33%)6 hold an outcome priced under 50%3 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

Ball State45%

Buffalo56%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Buffalo3 traders

Total Value$2.0K

Total Shares3,683

Combined PnL+$323.88

Ball State6 traders

Total Value$1.5K

Total Shares2,899

Combined PnL-$67.72

Buffalo — 33%Ball State — 67%

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

3 traders

Top 2 hold 100%

Freshness

Fresh

0h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

38% of non-arb traders are on Buffalo. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 100% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

ctrBall State 100% · 2

Diverging

Hand-pickedBall State 100% · 1

Diverging

Top 1000Ball State 63% · 8

Diverging

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
65 6512395314597884	Buffaloavg 46.6¢	$1.7K	$2.0K	+$325.82	50% 3301-3258 (6559)
0X 0x228B8d11EBa89BF1c554f8879a9293B7106DaF4c-1765442354872CTR	Ball Stateavg 54.7¢	$820	$840	+$20	55% 719-584 (1303)
PR primmCTR	Ball Stateavg 52.8¢	$343.78	$289.7	-$54.08	61% 870-566 (1436)
0X 0xdbdd45150249e229eB4cA8aa48A30Dca21Faa5de-1757094771846CTR	Ball Stateavg 49¢	$122.5	$111.25	-$11.25	29% 177-431 (608)
38 38791873984189CTR	Ball Stateavg 52¢	$127.4	$105.35	-$22.05	48% 1430-1573 (3003)
PA Pan9XCTR	Ball Stateavg 52.7¢	$156.69	$79.02	-$4.73	49% 693-734 (1427)
RN1CTR<$100	Ball Stateavg 51.9¢	$61.29	$65.69	+$4.4	57% 4059-3079 (7138)
GH ghorrock<$100	Buffaloavg 55¢	$7.39	$6.39	-$1	55% 683-554 (1237)
HO HomeRunHazard<$100	Buffaloavg 55¢	$6.91	$5.97	-$0.93	57% 3229-2433 (5662)

6512395314597884

Buffalo

Invested

$1,703.82

Value

$2.0K

PnL

+$325.82

Record

50%

3301-3258 (6559)

0x228B8d11EBa89BF1c554f8879a9293B7106DaF4c-1765442354872CTR

Ball State

Invested

$820

Value

$840

PnL

+$20

Record

55%

719-584 (1303)

primmCTR

Ball State

Invested

$343.78

Value

$289.7

PnL

-$54.08

Record

61%

870-566 (1436)

0xdbdd45150249e229eB4cA8aa48A30Dca21Faa5de-1757094771846CTR

Ball State

Invested

$122.5

Value

$111.25

PnL

-$11.25

Record

29%

177-431 (608)

38791873984189CTR

Ball State

Invested

$127.4

Value

$105.35

PnL

-$22.05

Record

48%

1430-1573 (3003)

Pan9XCTR

Ball State

Invested

$156.69

Value

$79.02

PnL

-$4.73

Record

49%

693-734 (1427)

RN1CTR<$100

Ball State

Invested

$61.29

Value

$65.69

PnL

+$4.4

Record

57%

4059-3079 (7138)

ghorrock<$100

Buffalo

Invested

$7.39

Value

$6.39

PnL

-$1

Record

55%

683-554 (1237)

HomeRunHazard<$100

Buffalo

Invested

$6.91

Value

$5.97

PnL

-$0.93

Record

57%

3229-2433 (5662)

Research grade

NeutralBuffalo at 56%

Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Side priced 50–60¢Full year, out of sample: 0.50–0.70 lost −2.9 % a trade (n 23,546, 95 % CI −3.9 to −1.9).

Smart Money Signal

Buffalo

3 of 9 top traders (33%)6 hold an outcome priced under 50%3 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

3 traders

Top 2 hold 100%

Freshness

Fresh

0h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

38% of non-arb traders are on Buffalo. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 100% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

ctrBall State 100% · 2

Diverging

Hand-pickedBall State 100% · 1

Diverging

Top 1000Ball State 63% · 8

Diverging

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Buffalo wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance57.7%

55.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.2¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$73.22

Max Loss

-$100.00

173.2

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.