Smart money holds the underdog side

Most tracked traders hold Ball State, while the market favors Buffalo (99%). 2 of 8 traders hold an outcome priced under 50%.

Historically, consensus on sides priced under 40¢ lost money after costs.

Spread: Buffalo (-7.5)

2 of 8 top Polymarket traders hold Ball State (25%) · Ball State at 1.1¢ · $879 held · ended Nov 12

Buffalo99¢Ball State1¢Ended Thu, Nov 12, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚠️

Avoid

Ball State

Consensus Traders

Ball State 25%

Total Value

$878.84

Combined PnL

$-1.0K

Smart Money Entry

76.4¢ → 1.1¢

-99% since entry · 2 traders

Research grade

AvoidBall State at 1%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.

Consensus side under 30¢Full year, out of sample: 0.05–0.30 lost −8.1 % a trade (n 11,568), under 0.20 −20.5 % (n 3,615). Oct 22 backtest: −29.5 % (n 1,625). The strongest effect in every test.
Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Ball State

2 of 8 top traders (25%)Underdog side (market favors Buffalo 99%)2 hold an outcome priced under 50%3 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

Buffalo99%

Ball State1%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Ball State2 traders

Total Value$223.72

Total Shares1,702

Combined PnL$-1.1K

Buffalo6 traders

Total Value$655.12

Total Shares2,573

Combined PnL+$51.45

Ball State — 25%Buffalo — 75%

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

2 traders

Top 2 hold 100%

Freshness

Fresh

0h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

25% of non-arb traders are on Ball State. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 100% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

ctrBuffalo 75% · 4

Diverging

Hand-pickedBuffalo 100% · 1

Diverging

Top 1000Buffalo 75% · 8

Diverging

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
0X 0x228B8d11EBa89BF1c554f8879a9293B7106DaF4c-1765442354872CTR	Ball Stateavg 62¢	$163.16	$207.89	+$44.74	55% 843-701 (1544)
RN1	Buffaloavg 25.9¢	$212.11	$204.54	-$7.57	57% 4155-3181 (7336)
KE keeptheblueflagflyinghigh	Buffaloavg 20.9¢	$129.01	$154.33	+$25.32	52% 1914-1760 (3674)
38 38791873984189	Buffaloavg 22.2¢	$314.06	$145.45	+$41.39	47% 1681-1866 (3547)
JU justaluckydude<$100	Buffaloavg 34¢	$86.36	$63.5	-$22.86	39% 233-367 (600)
65 6512395314597884<$100	Buffaloavg 21.9¢	$52.82	$60.4	+$7.58	50% 3334-3292 (6626)
PA Pan9X<$100	Buffaloavg 21.5¢	$48.31	$26.9	+$7.59	49% 786-829 (1615)
CUTJALENHURTSCTR	Ball Stateavg 79¢	$1.1K	$15.83	$-1.1K	52% 2592-2431 (5023)

0x228B8d11EBa89BF1c554f8879a9293B7106DaF4c-1765442354872CTR

Ball State

Invested

$163.16

Value

$207.89

PnL

+$44.74

Record

55%

843-701 (1544)

RN1

Buffalo

Invested

$212.11

Value

$204.54

PnL

-$7.57

Record

57%

4155-3181 (7336)

keeptheblueflagflyinghigh

Buffalo

Invested

$129.01

Value

$154.33

PnL

+$25.32

Record

52%

1914-1760 (3674)

38791873984189

Buffalo

Invested

$314.06

Value

$145.45

PnL

+$41.39

Record

47%

1681-1866 (3547)

justaluckydude<$100

Buffalo

Invested

$86.36

Value

$63.5

PnL

-$22.86

Record

39%

233-367 (600)

6512395314597884<$100

Buffalo

Invested

$52.82

Value

$60.4

PnL

+$7.58

Record

50%

3334-3292 (6626)

Pan9X<$100

Buffalo

Invested

$48.31

Value

$26.9

PnL

+$7.59

Record

49%

786-829 (1615)

CUTJALENHURTSCTR

Ball State

Invested

$1,136.57

Value

$15.83

PnL

$-1.1K

Record

52%

2592-2431 (5023)

Research grade

AvoidBall State at 1%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.

Consensus side under 30¢Full year, out of sample: 0.05–0.30 lost −8.1 % a trade (n 11,568), under 0.20 −20.5 % (n 3,615). Oct 22 backtest: −29.5 % (n 1,625). The strongest effect in every test.
Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.

Smart Money Signal

Ball State

2 of 8 top traders (25%)Underdog side (market favors Buffalo 99%)2 hold an outcome priced under 50%3 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

2 traders

Top 2 hold 100%

Freshness

Fresh

0h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

25% of non-arb traders are on Ball State. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 100% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

ctrBuffalo 75% · 4

Diverging

Hand-pickedBuffalo 100% · 1

Diverging

Top 1000Buffalo 75% · 8

Diverging

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Ball State wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance2.2%

1.1¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.1¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$4439.69

Max Loss

-$100.00

4539.7

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.