Spread: Buffalo (-6.5)
4 of 6 top Polymarket traders hold Ball State (67%) · Ball State at 71¢ · $3K held · ended Nov 12
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Neutral
Ball State
6
Ball State 67%
$3.1K
$253.58
76.1¢ → 70.5¢
-7% since entry · 4 traders
Research grade
NeutralBall State at 71%
No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).
- Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
- Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
4 of 6 top traders (67%)2 hold an outcome priced under 50%1 small position dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
Signal Intelligence
Momentum
Flat
+0 pts consensus
Breadth
4 traders
Top 2 hold 73%
Freshness
Fresh
0h old
Flip Quality
Clean
0 consensus flips
67% of non-arb traders are on Ball State. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 73% of that side's value.
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
0X 0x228B8d11EBa89BF1c554f8879a9293B7106DaF4c-1765442354872 | Ball Stateavg 75.8¢ | $992.58 | $1.0K | +$54.62 | 55% 719-584 (1303) |
65 6512395314597884CTR | Buffaloavg 23.8¢ | $670.27 | $815.19 | +$144.92 | 50% 3301-3258 (6559) |
 RN1 | Ball Stateavg 76¢ | $585.2 | $616 | +$30.8 | 57% 4059-3079 (7138) |
38 38791873984189 | Ball Stateavg 76.4¢ | $432.3 | $452.8 | +$20.5 | 48% 1430-1573 (3003) |
PA Pan9X | Ball Stateavg 77¢ | $145.45 | $151.2 | +$5.75 | 49% 693-734 (1427) |
CM cm2897CTR<$100 | Buffaloavg 30¢ | $12.9 | $9.89 | -$3.01 | 49% 1112-1143 (2255) |
Invested
$992.58
Value
$1.0K
PnL
+$54.62
Record
55%
719-584 (1303)
Invested
$670.27
Value
$815.19
PnL
+$144.92
Record
50%
3301-3258 (6559)
RN1Invested
$585.2
Value
$616
PnL
+$30.8
Record
57%
4059-3079 (7138)
Invested
$432.3
Value
$452.8
PnL
+$20.5
Record
48%
1430-1573 (3003)
Invested
$145.45
Value
$151.2
PnL
+$5.75
Record
49%
693-734 (1427)
Invested
$12.9
Value
$9.89
PnL
-$3.01
Record
49%
1112-1143 (2255)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
70.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.0¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.