Buffalo vs. Ball State: 1H Moneyline

2 of 8 top Polymarket traders hold Buffalo (25%) · Buffalo at 50¢ · $6K held · ended Nov 12

Buffalo50¢Ball State50¢Ended Thu, Nov 12, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Buffalo

Consensus Traders

Buffalo 25%

Total Value

$6.1K

Combined PnL

$124.55

Smart Money Entry

52.2¢ → 50¢

-4% since entry · 2 traders

Research grade

NeutralBuffalo at 50%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Side priced 50–60¢Full year, out of sample: 0.50–0.70 lost −2.9 % a trade (n 23,546, 95 % CI −3.9 to −1.9).

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Buffalo

2 of 8 top traders (25%)3 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

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Outcome Probabilities

Buffalo50%

Ball State50%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Buffalo2 traders

Total Value$3.2K

Total Shares6,000

Combined PnL+$80

Ball State6 traders

Total Value$2.9K

Total Shares5,912

Combined PnL+$44.55

Buffalo — 25%Ball State — 75%

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
9C 0x9c76...c926	Buffaloavg 52¢	$2.1K	$2.1K	+$60	—
AU auros2	Ball Stateavg 47.8¢	$2.9K	$1.7K	+$402.71	84% 66-13 (79)
VeryLucky888	Buffaloavg 52.5¢	$1.1K	$1.1K	+$20	52% 497-453 (950)
DC 0xdc41...dd7e	Ball Stateavg 46.4¢	$648.58	$649.61	+$1.03	—
CM cm2897	Ball Stateavg 75¢	$804.8	$448.6	-$356.2	49% 1112-1143 (2255)
DD 0xdd5e...9040<$100	Ball Stateavg 46¢	$57.96	$58.59	+$0.63	—
0X 0x68234mjhgfvj8612543ytjsa6187235v81283<$100	Ball Stateavg 67¢	$12.06	$8.37	-$3.69	16% 11-59 (70)
MU Multicoloured-Serf<$100	Ball Stateavg 45¢	$1.95	$2.02	+$0.07	48% 536-588 (1124)

0x9c76...c926

Buffalo

Invested

$2,080

Value

$2.1K

PnL

+$60

Record

—

auros2

Ball State

Invested

$2,909.36

Value

$1.7K

PnL

+$402.71

Record

84%

66-13 (79)

VeryLucky888

Buffalo

Invested

$1,050

Value

$1.1K

PnL

+$20

Record

52%

497-453 (950)

0xdc41...dd7e

Ball State

Invested

$648.58

Value

$649.61

PnL

+$1.03

Record

—

cm2897

Ball State

Invested

$804.8

Value

$448.6

PnL

-$356.2

Record

49%

1112-1143 (2255)

0xdd5e...9040<$100

Ball State

Invested

$57.96

Value

$58.59

PnL

+$0.63

Record

—

0x68234mjhgfvj8612543ytjsa6187235v81283<$100

Ball State

Invested

$12.06

Value

$8.37

PnL

-$3.69

Record

16%

11-59 (70)

Multicoloured-Serf<$100

Ball State

Invested

$1.95

Value

$2.02

PnL

+$0.07

Record

48%

536-588 (1124)

Research grade

NeutralBuffalo at 50%

Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Side priced 50–60¢Full year, out of sample: 0.50–0.70 lost −2.9 % a trade (n 23,546, 95 % CI −3.9 to −1.9).

Smart Money Signal

Buffalo

2 of 8 top traders (25%)3 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

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EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Buffalo wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance52.2%

50.0¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.2¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$91.39

Max Loss

-$100.00

191.4

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.