Boston College vs. Notre Dame: O/U 49.5

6 of 9 top Polymarket traders hold Over (67%) · Over at 97¢ · $2K held · ended Nov 14

Over97¢Under3¢Ended Sat, Nov 14, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Over

Consensus Traders

Over 67%

Total Value

$1.8K

Combined PnL

-$347.03

Smart Money Entry

55.9¢ → 96.5¢

+73% since entry · 6 traders

Research grade

NeutralOver at 97%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.
Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Over

6 of 9 top traders (67%)3 hold an outcome priced under 50%3 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

Over97%

Under4%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Over6 traders

Total Value$1.5K

Total Shares2,807

Combined PnL-$114.11

Under3 traders

Total Value$349.61

Total Shares1,363

Combined PnL-$232.92

Over — 67%Under — 33%

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

5 traders

Top 2 hold 85%

Freshness

Fresh

0h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

71% of non-arb traders are on Over. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 85% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

ctrUnder 67% · 3

Diverging

Hand-pickedOver 100% · 1

Aligned

Top 1000Over 71% · 7

Aligned

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
RN1	Overavg 56.5¢	$877.39	$854.14	-$23.25	55% 5474-4481 (9955)
LI LightParadoxCTR	Underavg 45¢	$264.26	$264.26	+$0	37% 1064-1797 (2861)
38 38791873984189	Overavg 55¢	$322.98	$234.9	-$88.09	48% 3305-3631 (6936)
0X 0x228B8d11EBa89BF1c554f8879a9293B7106DaF4c-1765442354872	Overavg 60¢	$252.3	$231.27	-$21.03	55% 1658-1357 (3015)
65 6512395314597884	Overavg 47.6¢	$100	$115.5	+$15.5	50% 3828-3802 (7630)
CM cm2897CTR	Underavg 41¢	$317.75	$85.25	-$232.5	49% 1179-1209 (2388)
PA Pan9X<$100	Overavg 48¢	$17.76	$20.35	+$2.59	50% 1636-1654 (3290)
TO topdogbigboi<$100	Overavg 46¢	$0.85	$1.02	+$0.17	38% 1138-1890 (3028)
BI biying88888CTR<$100	Underavg 52¢	$0.52	$0.1	-$0.43	44% 206-263 (469)

RN1

Over

Invested

$877.39

Value

$854.14

PnL

-$23.25

Record

55%

5474-4481 (9955)

LightParadoxCTR

Under

Invested

$264.26

Value

$264.26

PnL

+$0

Record

37%

1064-1797 (2861)

38791873984189

Over

Invested

$322.98

Value

$234.9

PnL

-$88.09

Record

48%

3305-3631 (6936)

0x228B8d11EBa89BF1c554f8879a9293B7106DaF4c-1765442354872

Over

Invested

$252.3

Value

$231.27

PnL

-$21.03

Record

55%

1658-1357 (3015)

6512395314597884

Over

Invested

$100

Value

$115.5

PnL

+$15.5

Record

50%

3828-3802 (7630)

cm2897CTR

Under

Invested

$317.75

Value

$85.25

PnL

-$232.5

Record

49%

1179-1209 (2388)

Pan9X<$100

Over

Invested

$17.76

Value

$20.35

PnL

+$2.59

Record

50%

1636-1654 (3290)

topdogbigboi<$100

Over

Invested

$0.85

Value

$1.02

PnL

+$0.17

Record

38%

1138-1890 (3028)

biying88888CTR<$100

Under

Invested

$0.52

Value

$0.1

PnL

-$0.43

Record

44%

206-263 (469)

Research grade

NeutralOver at 97%

Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.
Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.

Smart Money Signal

Over

6 of 9 top traders (67%)3 hold an outcome priced under 50%3 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

5 traders

Top 2 hold 85%

Freshness

Fresh

0h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

71% of non-arb traders are on Over. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 85% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

ctrUnder 67% · 3

Diverging

Hand-pickedOver 100% · 1

Aligned

Top 1000Over 71% · 7

Aligned

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Over wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance97.6%

96.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.1¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$2.44

Max Loss

-$100.00

102.4

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.