Spread: Notre Dame (-29.5)

5 of 12 top Polymarket traders hold Notre Dame (42%) · Notre Dame at 73¢ · $18K held · ended Nov 14

Notre Dame73¢Boston College27¢Ended Sat, Nov 14, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Notre Dame

Consensus Traders

Notre Dame 42%

Total Value

$18.0K

Combined PnL

$2.2K

Smart Money Entry

50.7¢ → 72.5¢

+43% since entry · 5 traders

Research grade

NeutralNotre Dame at 73%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Notre Dame

5 of 12 top traders (42%)7 hold an outcome priced under 50%5 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

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Outcome Probabilities

Notre Dame73%

Boston College28%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Notre Dame5 traders

Total Value$11.9K

Total Shares17,456

Combined PnL+$3.0K

Boston College7 traders

Total Value$6.1K

Total Shares13,782

Combined PnL-$752.95

Notre Dame — 42%Boston College — 58%

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
GL glennyorkshire	Notre Dameavg 52¢	$5.2K	$7.3K	+$2.0K	45% 173-212 (385)
JU justwins	Notre Dameavg 49¢	$3.6K	$4.5K	+$948.34	50% 118-116 (234)
HO HomeRunHazardCTR	Boston Collegeavg 51¢	$2.4K	$2.4K	+$0.99	56% 3687-2847 (6534)
CUTJALENHURTSCTR	Boston Collegeavg 48¢	$2.1K	$1.6K	-$524.42	52% 2647-2473 (5120)
BA bands1CTR	Boston Collegeavg 50¢	$963.64	$982.91	+$19.27	51% 352-339 (691)
nigiri99CTR	Boston Collegeavg 51¢	$974.61	$745.29	-$229.32	52% 573-538 (1111)
0X 0x228B8d11EBa89BF1c554f8879a9293B7106DaF4c-1765442354872CTR	Boston Collegeavg 47.5¢	$268.29	$270.93	+$2.64	55% 1630-1337 (2967)
0X 0x8g68hBa8tyH1946Bhjb674g3fuyUIGYUi4uhflksCTR<$100	Boston Collegeavg 50.4¢	$94.76	$83.68	-$11.08	54% 286-244 (530)
DA darkumbreon88<$100	Notre Dameavg 50¢	$58.37	$57.2	-$1.17	61% 1048-661 (1709)
KE keeptheblueflagflyinghighCTR<$100	Boston Collegeavg 48¢	$52.96	$41.93	-$11.03	50% 2560-2519 (5079)
NO NotJump<$100	Notre Dameavg 53¢	$26.5	$27.5	+$1	52% 883-823 (1706)
GH ghorrock<$100	Notre Dameavg 50¢	$5.04	$4.94	-$0.1	53% 1854-1648 (3502)

glennyorkshire

Notre Dame

Invested

$5,200

Value

$7.3K

PnL

+$2.0K

Record

45%

173-212 (385)

justwins

Notre Dame

Invested

$3,564.85

Value

$4.5K

PnL

+$948.34

Record

50%

118-116 (234)

HomeRunHazardCTR

Boston College

Invested

$2,406.06

Value

$2.4K

PnL

+$0.99

Record

56%

3687-2847 (6534)

CUTJALENHURTSCTR

Boston College

Invested

$2,097.67

Value

$1.6K

PnL

-$524.42

Record

52%

2647-2473 (5120)

bands1CTR

Boston College

Invested

$963.64

Value

$982.91

PnL

+$19.27

Record

51%

352-339 (691)

nigiri99CTR

Boston College

Invested

$974.61

Value

$745.29

PnL

-$229.32

Record

52%

573-538 (1111)

0x228B8d11EBa89BF1c554f8879a9293B7106DaF4c-1765442354872CTR

Boston College

Invested

$268.29

Value

$270.93

PnL

+$2.64

Record

55%

1630-1337 (2967)

0x8g68hBa8tyH1946Bhjb674g3fuyUIGYUi4uhflksCTR<$100

Boston College

Invested

$94.76

Value

$83.68

PnL

-$11.08

Record

54%

286-244 (530)

darkumbreon88<$100

Notre Dame

Invested

$58.37

Value

$57.2

PnL

-$1.17

Record

61%

1048-661 (1709)

keeptheblueflagflyinghighCTR<$100

Boston College

Invested

$52.96

Value

$41.93

PnL

-$11.03

Record

50%

2560-2519 (5079)

NotJump<$100

Notre Dame

Invested

$26.5

Value

$27.5

PnL

+$1

Record

52%

883-823 (1706)

ghorrock<$100

Notre Dame

Invested

$5.04

Value

$4.94

PnL

-$0.1

Record

53%

1854-1648 (3502)

Research grade

NeutralNotre Dame at 73%

Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

Smart Money Signal

Notre Dame

5 of 12 top traders (42%)7 hold an outcome priced under 50%5 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Notre Dame wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance74.5%

72.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.0¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$34.28

Max Loss

-$100.00

134.3

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.