Boston College vs. Notre Dame

6 of 9 top Polymarket traders hold Notre Dame (67%) · Notre Dame at 97¢ · $8K held · ends Nov 14

Boston College3¢Notre Dame97¢Ends Sat, Nov 14, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Notre Dame

Consensus Traders

Notre Dame 67%

Total Value

$8.0K

Combined PnL

$47.52

Smart Money Entry

97.2¢ → 97.3¢

+0% since entry · 6 traders

Research grade

NeutralNotre Dame at 97%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Notre Dame

6 of 9 top traders (67%)3 hold an outcome priced under 50%4 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

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Outcome Probabilities

Boston College3%

Notre Dame97%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Notre Dame6 traders

Total Value$7.9K

Total Shares8,090

Combined PnL+$43.7

Boston College3 traders

Total Value$102.62

Total Shares3,786

Combined PnL+$3.82

Notre Dame — 67%Boston College — 33%

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
38 38791873984189	Notre Dameavg 96.9¢	$6.8K	$5.6K	+$54.2	48% 3214-3513 (6727)
PU purplegatto	Notre Dameavg 98.1¢	$1.6K	$1.6K	-$11.54	68% 2645-1232 (3877)
XT xtxpleasecallme	Notre Dameavg 97.6¢	$449.59	$449.66	+$0.07	39% 3649-5778 (9427)
TH TheWindKnowsmyName	Notre Dameavg 98.5¢	$119.11	$117.44	-$1.67	9% 14-145 (159)
PA Pan9X	Notre Dameavg 97.4¢	$175.77	$108.3	+$1.93	50% 1587-1614 (3201)
nigiri99CTR<$100	Boston Collegeavg 2.6¢	$73.56	$76.33	+$2.77	51% 568-535 (1103)
GH ghorrock<$100	Notre Dameavg 96.4¢	$70.64	$57.51	+$0.71	52% 1721-1568 (3289)
FO Forecastication2CTR<$100	Boston Collegeavg 2.6¢	$19.29	$20.33	+$1.04	45% 260-317 (577)
HI hi774cCTR<$100	Boston Collegeavg 2.9¢	$5.96	$5.96	-$0	22% 179-618 (797)

38791873984189

Notre Dame

Invested

$6,798.45

Value

$5.6K

PnL

+$54.2

Record

48%

3214-3513 (6727)

purplegatto

Notre Dame

Invested

$1,600.14

Value

$1.6K

PnL

-$11.54

Record

68%

2645-1232 (3877)

xtxpleasecallme

Notre Dame

Invested

$449.59

Value

$449.66

PnL

+$0.07

Record

39%

3649-5778 (9427)

TheWindKnowsmyName

Notre Dame

Invested

$119.11

Value

$117.44

PnL

-$1.67

Record

14-145 (159)

Pan9X

Notre Dame

Invested

$175.77

Value

$108.3

PnL

+$1.93

Record

50%

1587-1614 (3201)

nigiri99CTR<$100

Boston College

Invested

$73.56

Value

$76.33

PnL

+$2.77

Record

51%

568-535 (1103)

ghorrock<$100

Notre Dame

Invested

$70.64

Value

$57.51

PnL

+$0.71

Record

52%

1721-1568 (3289)

Forecastication2CTR<$100

Boston College

Invested

$19.29

Value

$20.33

PnL

+$1.04

Record

45%

260-317 (577)

hi774cCTR<$100

Boston College

Invested

$5.96

Value

$5.96

PnL

-$0

Record

22%

179-618 (797)

Research grade

NeutralNotre Dame at 97%

Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.

Smart Money Signal

Notre Dame

6 of 9 top traders (67%)3 hold an outcome priced under 50%4 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Notre Dame wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance98.4%

97.3¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.1¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$1.64

Max Loss

-$100.00

101.6

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.