Smart money holds the underdog side
Most tracked traders hold Baylor, while the market favors BYU (51%). 2 of 8 traders hold an outcome priced under 50%.
Spread: BYU (-8.5)
2 of 8 top Polymarket traders hold Baylor (25%) · Baylor at 50¢ · $10K held · ends Nov 14
⚖️
Neutral
Baylor
8
Baylor 25%
$9.7K
-$301.87
53.9¢ → 49.5¢
-8% since entry · 2 traders
Research grade
NeutralBaylor at 50%
No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).
- Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
- Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
- Side priced 30–50¢Full year, out of sample: 0.30–0.50 lost −4.8 % a trade (n 16,830, 95 % CI −6.6 to −3.1), worse than the plain consensus.
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
2 of 8 top traders (25%)Underdog side (market favors BYU 51%)2 hold an outcome priced under 50%4 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
Signal Intelligence
Momentum
Flat
+0 pts consensus
Breadth
2 traders
Top 2 hold 100%
Freshness
Fresh
6h old
Flip Quality
Clean
0 consensus flips
25% of non-arb traders are on Baylor. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 100% of that side's value.
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
0X 0x418D51e13d019913BB027DB22ECc723fe1AD88A3-1720918577961CTR | Bayloravg 54¢ | $5.4K | $4.9K | -$500 | 44% 12-15 (27) |
MU Multicoloured-Serf | BYUavg 46¢ | $2.4K | $2.5K | +$105.26 | 49% 615-643 (1258) |
HI hi774c | BYUavg 46¢ | $1.7K | $1.7K | +$71.83 | 21% 158-579 (737) |
 VeryLucky888 | BYUavg 46¢ | $469.23 | $489.23 | +$20 | 53% 1186-1032 (2218) |
NM NM-PCTR<$100 | Bayloravg 49¢ | $63.7 | $64.35 | +$0.65 | 59% 3728-2540 (6268) |
FO Forecastication2<$100 | BYUavg 47¢ | $5.64 | $5.76 | +$0.12 | 45% 224-276 (500) |
GH ghorrock<$100 | BYUavg 46¢ | $4.64 | $4.84 | +$0.2 | 53% 1572-1421 (2993) |
HO HomeRunHazard<$100 | BYUavg 47¢ | $3.22 | $3.29 | +$0.07 | 57% 3570-2717 (6287) |
Invested
$5,400
Value
$4.9K
PnL
-$500
Record
44%
12-15 (27)
Invested
$2,421
Value
$2.5K
PnL
+$105.26
Record
49%
615-643 (1258)
Invested
$1,652.11
Value
$1.7K
PnL
+$71.83
Record
21%
158-579 (737)
VeryLucky888Invested
$469.23
Value
$489.23
PnL
+$20
Record
53%
1186-1032 (2218)
Invested
$63.7
Value
$64.35
PnL
+$0.65
Record
59%
3728-2540 (6268)
Invested
$5.64
Value
$5.76
PnL
+$0.12
Record
45%
224-276 (500)
Invested
$4.64
Value
$4.84
PnL
+$0.2
Record
53%
1572-1421 (2993)
Invested
$3.22
Value
$3.29
PnL
+$0.07
Record
57%
3570-2717 (6287)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
49.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.2¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.