Auburn vs. Mississippi State: O/U 51.5

3 of 12 top Polymarket traders hold Under (25%) · Under at 51¢ · $23K held · ends Nov 14

Over50¢Under50¢Ends Sat, Nov 14, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Under

Consensus Traders

Under 25%

Total Value

$23.1K

Combined PnL

$17.91

Smart Money Entry

51¢ → 50.5¢

-1% since entry · 3 traders

Research grade

NeutralUnder at 51%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Side priced 50–60¢Full year, out of sample: 0.50–0.70 lost −2.9 % a trade (n 23,546, 95 % CI −3.9 to −1.9).

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Under

3 of 12 top traders (25%)9 hold an outcome priced under 50%5 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

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Outcome Probabilities

Over50%

Under51%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Under3 traders

Total Value$11.9K

Total Shares23,531

Combined PnL-$117.3

Over9 traders

Total Value$11.2K

Total Shares22,681

Combined PnL+$135.21

Under — 25%Over — 75%

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
KE keeptheblueflagflyinghigh	Underavg 51¢	$11.9K	$11.8K	-$117.07	50% 2543-2505 (5048)
HO HomeRunHazardCTR	Overavg 48.9¢	$6.7K	$6.8K	+$82.93	56% 3687-2847 (6534)
HI hi774cCTR	Overavg 49¢	$3.0K	$3.0K	+$30.61	22% 179-619 (798)
38 38791873984189CTR	Overavg 49¢	$650.23	$656.87	+$6.63	48% 3239-3552 (6791)
65 6512395314597884CTR	Overavg 49¢	$293.99	$296.99	+$3	50% 3807-3775 (7582)
MA MadridTimeCTR	Overavg 47¢	$179.96	$187.62	+$7.66	38% 1014-1686 (2700)
NM NM-PCTR	Overavg 49¢	$171.5	$173.25	+$1.75	59% 3775-2600 (6375)
MU Multicoloured-SerfCTR<$100	Overavg 47¢	$55.04	$57.38	+$2.34	48% 635-675 (1310)
0X 0x99F0d31fdced5B3A0e5Ee2867730A6644a6C9495-1779037126382<$100	Underavg 50.5¢	$35.85	$35.86	+$0	48% 301-330 (631)
0X 0x8g68hBa8tyH1946Bhjb674g3fuyUIGYUi4uhflksCTR<$100	Overavg 49¢	$27.93	$28.21	+$0.28	54% 286-244 (530)
NA NatoAlfista<$100	Underavg 51¢	$23.46	$23.23	-$0.23	43% 185-243 (428)
PR primmCTR<$100	Overavg 49¢	$17.15	$17.15	+$0	59% 931-653 (1584)

keeptheblueflagflyinghigh

Under

Invested

$11,941.28

Value

$11.8K

PnL

-$117.07

Record

50%

2543-2505 (5048)

HomeRunHazardCTR

Over

Invested

$6,693.41

Value

$6.8K

PnL

+$82.93

Record

56%

3687-2847 (6534)

hi774cCTR

Over

Invested

$3,000

Value

$3.0K

PnL

+$30.61

Record

22%

179-619 (798)

38791873984189CTR

Over

Invested

$650.23

Value

$656.87

PnL

+$6.63

Record

48%

3239-3552 (6791)

6512395314597884CTR

Over

Invested

$293.99

Value

$296.99

PnL

+$3

Record

50%

3807-3775 (7582)

MadridTimeCTR

Over

Invested

$179.96

Value

$187.62

PnL

+$7.66

Record

38%

1014-1686 (2700)

NM-PCTR

Over

Invested

$171.5

Value

$173.25

PnL

+$1.75

Record

59%

3775-2600 (6375)

Multicoloured-SerfCTR<$100

Over

Invested

$55.04

Value

$57.38

PnL

+$2.34

Record

48%

635-675 (1310)

0x99F0d31fdced5B3A0e5Ee2867730A6644a6C9495-1779037126382<$100

Under

Invested

$35.85

Value

$35.86

PnL

+$0

Record

48%

301-330 (631)

0x8g68hBa8tyH1946Bhjb674g3fuyUIGYUi4uhflksCTR<$100

Over

Invested

$27.93

Value

$28.21

PnL

+$0.28

Record

54%

286-244 (530)

NatoAlfista<$100

Under

Invested

$23.46

Value

$23.23

PnL

-$0.23

Record

43%

185-243 (428)

primmCTR<$100

Over

Invested

$17.15

Value

$17.15

PnL

+$0

Record

59%

931-653 (1584)

Research grade

NeutralUnder at 51%

Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Side priced 50–60¢Full year, out of sample: 0.50–0.70 lost −2.9 % a trade (n 23,546, 95 % CI −3.9 to −1.9).

Smart Money Signal

Under

3 of 12 top traders (25%)9 hold an outcome priced under 50%5 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Under wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance52.7%

50.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.2¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$89.58

Max Loss

-$100.00

189.6

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.