Smart money holds the underdog side

Most tracked traders hold Mississippi State, while the market favors Auburn (64%). 8 of 15 traders hold an outcome priced under 50%.

Historically, consensus on sides priced under 40¢ lost money after costs.

Auburn vs. Mississippi State

8 of 15 top Polymarket traders hold Mississippi State (53%) · Mississippi State at 36¢ · $25K held · ended Nov 14

Auburn64¢Mississippi State36¢Ended Sat, Nov 14, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Mississippi State

Consensus Traders

Mississippi State 53%

4 arb excluded

Total Value

$25.5K

Combined PnL

$143.33

Smart Money Entry

42.4¢ → 36¢

-15% since entry · 8 traders

Research grade

NeutralMississippi State at 36%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Side priced 30–50¢Full year, out of sample: 0.30–0.50 lost −4.8 % a trade (n 16,830, 95 % CI −6.6 to −3.1), worse than the plain consensus.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Mississippi State

8 of 15 top traders (53%)Underdog side (market favors Auburn 64%)4 arbitrage traders dimmed8 hold an outcome priced under 50%6 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

Auburn64%

Mississippi State36%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Mississippi State8 traders

Total Value$21.7K

Total Shares51,346

Combined PnL-$163.72

Auburn7 traders

Total Value$1.9K

Total Shares3,069

Combined PnL+$307.05

Mississippi State — 53%Auburn — 47%

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
ET ethanazCTR	Mississippi Stateavg 42¢	$14.0K	$14.8K	+$833.83	46% 384-454 (838)
0X 0x2c335066FE58fe9237c3d3Dc7b275C2a034a0563-1759935795465CTR	Mississippi Stateavg 43¢	$6.7K	$5.8K	-$856.57	51% 3880-3664 (7544)
RN1ARB<$100	Mississippi Stateavg 46.9¢	$1.3K	$1.1K	-$167.89	55% 5455-4439 (9894)
└ Mississippi State leg	Mississippi Stateavg 46.9¢	$772.11	$600.34	-$171.77
└ Auburn leg	Auburnavg 63¢	$489.51	$493.4	+$3.88
PR primm	Auburnavg 48¢	$770.4	$1.0K	+$232.73	59% 932-653 (1585)
VeryLucky888CTR	Mississippi Stateavg 43¢	$721.7	$624.75	+$9.6	54% 1473-1278 (2751)
0X 0x3d5a9e66f15e6719927972135501c61efc53a0be	Auburnavg 55¢	$530.35	$602.67	+$72.32	4% 14-329 (343)
0X 0xD9E0AACa471f48F91A26E8669A805f2ARB<$100	Auburnavg 63¢	$467.81	$446.89	-$20.92	56% 4072-3180 (7252)
└ Auburn leg	Auburnavg 63¢	$315	$312.5	-$2.5
└ Mississippi State leg	Mississippi Stateavg 42.6¢	$152.81	$134.39	-$18.42
CA CandleHammerDrumsARB<$100	Mississippi Stateavg 45¢	$295.02	$190.92	+$7.81	49% 539-568 (1107)
└ Mississippi State leg	Mississippi Stateavg 45¢	$110.57	$111.79	+$3.88
└ Auburn leg	Auburnavg 51¢	$74.05	$79.14	+$3.93
OJ ojg	Auburnavg 61¢	$134.61	$137.93	+$3.31	48% 232-248 (480)
BA babybellsCTR	Mississippi Stateavg 49.5¢	$643.05	$131.44	-$163.81	31% 211-477 (688)
ST stackingsats	Auburnavg 57¢	$119.79	$118.74	-$1.05	9% 19-188 (207)
NO NotJumpARB<$100	Auburnavg 51.1¢	$116.4	$116.1	-$0.3	52% 883-823 (1706)
└ Auburn leg	Auburnavg 51.1¢	$63.9	$69.38	+$5.48
└ Mississippi State leg	Mississippi Stateavg 50¢	$52.5	$46.73	-$5.77
38 38791873984189CTR	Mississippi Stateavg 43¢	$114.66	$115.95	+$1.3	48% 3273-3600 (6873)
KE keeptheblueflagflyinghighCTR<$100	Mississippi Stateavg 39¢	$86.07	$89.38	+$3.31	50% 2560-2519 (5079)
PA Pan9XCTR<$100	Mississippi Stateavg 44.3¢	$64.01	$67.39	+$8.63	50% 1601-1625 (3226)
nigiri99<$100	Auburnavg 57¢	$34.2	$33.9	-$0.3	52% 573-538 (1111)
HO HomeRunHazard<$100	Auburnavg 56¢	$3.36	$3.39	+$0.03	56% 3687-2847 (6534)
TH thirdt1me<$100	Auburnavg 62¢	$1.86	$1.88	+$0.01	48% 283-303 (586)
PT PT-S7CTR<$100	Mississippi Stateavg 36¢	$0.56	$0.57	+$0.01	27% 83-229 (312)

ethanazCTR

Mississippi State

Invested

$14,008.26

Value

$14.8K

PnL

+$833.83

Record

46%

384-454 (838)

0x2c335066FE58fe9237c3d3Dc7b275C2a034a0563-1759935795465CTR

Mississippi State

Invested

$6,696.82

Value

$5.8K

PnL

-$856.57

Record

51%

3880-3664 (7544)

RN1ARB<$100

Mississippi State

Invested

$1,261.62

Value

$1.1K

PnL

-$167.89

Record

55%

5455-4439 (9894)

Both legs:

Mississippi State$772.1146.9¢-$171.77

Auburn$489.5163¢+$3.88

primm

Auburn

Invested

$770.4

Value

$1.0K

PnL

+$232.73

Record

59%

932-653 (1585)

VeryLucky888CTR

Mississippi State

Invested

$721.7

Value

$624.75

PnL

+$9.6

Record

54%

1473-1278 (2751)

0x3d5a9e66f15e6719927972135501c61efc53a0be

Auburn

Invested

$530.35

Value

$602.67

PnL

+$72.32

Record

14-329 (343)

0xD9E0AACa471f48F91A26E8669A805f2ARB<$100

Auburn

Invested

$467.81

Value

$446.89

PnL

-$20.92

Record

56%

4072-3180 (7252)

Both legs:

Auburn$31563¢-$2.5

Mississippi State$152.8142.6¢-$18.42

CandleHammerDrumsARB<$100

Mississippi State

Invested

$295.02

Value

$190.92

PnL

+$7.81

Record

49%

539-568 (1107)

Both legs:

Mississippi State$110.5745¢+$3.88

Auburn$74.0551¢+$3.93

ojg

Auburn

Invested

$134.61

Value

$137.93

PnL

+$3.31

Record

48%

232-248 (480)

babybellsCTR

Mississippi State

Invested

$643.05

Value

$131.44

PnL

-$163.81

Record

31%

211-477 (688)

stackingsats

Auburn

Invested

$119.79

Value

$118.74

PnL

-$1.05

Record

19-188 (207)

NotJumpARB<$100

Auburn

Invested

$116.4

Value

$116.1

PnL

-$0.3

Record

52%

883-823 (1706)

Both legs:

Auburn$63.951.1¢+$5.48

Mississippi State$52.550¢-$5.77

38791873984189CTR

Mississippi State

Invested

$114.66

Value

$115.95

PnL

+$1.3

Record

48%

3273-3600 (6873)

keeptheblueflagflyinghighCTR<$100

Mississippi State

Invested

$86.07

Value

$89.38

PnL

+$3.31

Record

50%

2560-2519 (5079)

Pan9XCTR<$100

Mississippi State

Invested

$64.01

Value

$67.39

PnL

+$8.63

Record

50%

1601-1625 (3226)

nigiri99<$100

Auburn

Invested

$34.2

Value

$33.9

PnL

-$0.3

Record

52%

573-538 (1111)

HomeRunHazard<$100

Auburn

Invested

$3.36

Value

$3.39

PnL

+$0.03

Record

56%

3687-2847 (6534)

thirdt1me<$100

Auburn

Invested

$1.86

Value

$1.88

PnL

+$0.01

Record

48%

283-303 (586)

PT-S7CTR<$100

Mississippi State

Invested

$0.56

Value

$0.57

PnL

+$0.01

Record

27%

83-229 (312)

Research grade

NeutralMississippi State at 36%

Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Side priced 30–50¢Full year, out of sample: 0.30–0.50 lost −4.8 % a trade (n 16,830, 95 % CI −6.6 to −3.1), worse than the plain consensus.

Smart Money Signal

Mississippi State

8 of 15 top traders (53%)Underdog side (market favors Auburn 64%)4 arbitrage traders dimmed8 hold an outcome priced under 50%6 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Mississippi State wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance38.2%

36.0¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.2¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$162.02

Max Loss

-$100.00

262.0

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.