Spread: UCF (-3.5)

4 of 11 top Polymarket traders hold Arizona State (36%) · Arizona State at 69¢ · $1K held · ended Nov 14

UCF31¢Arizona State69¢Ended Sat, Nov 14, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Arizona State

Consensus Traders

Arizona State 36%

Total Value

$1.2K

Combined PnL

$215.5

Smart Money Entry

51.6¢ → 69¢

+34% since entry · 4 traders

Research grade

NeutralArizona State at 69%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Arizona State

4 of 11 top traders (36%)7 hold an outcome priced under 50%7 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

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Outcome Probabilities

UCF31%

Arizona State69%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Arizona State4 traders

Total Value$861.49

Total Shares1,159

Combined PnL+$263.05

UCF7 traders

Total Value$312.58

Total Shares768

Combined PnL-$47.56

Arizona State — 36%UCF — 64%

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Surging

-24 pts consensus

Breadth

4 traders

Top 2 hold 96%

Freshness

Mature

21h old

Flip Quality

Watch

1 consensus flip

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

36% of non-arb traders are on Arizona State. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 96% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

ctrUCF 71% · 7

Diverging

Hand-pickedUCF 100% · 2

Diverging

Top 1000UCF 60% · 10

Diverging

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
GL glennyorkshire	Arizona Stateavg 52¢	$472.76	$722.73	+$249.97	45% 177-217 (394)
0X 0x99F0d31fdced5B3A0e5Ee2867730A6644a6C9495-1779037126382CTR	UCFavg 48¢	$189.6	$136.27	-$53.33	47% 339-375 (714)
SN SnakeBallCTR	UCFavg 45¢	$106.36	$120.54	+$14.18	47% 985-1122 (2107)
MU Multicoloured-Serf	Arizona Stateavg 50¢	$100	$110	+$10	49% 650-689 (1339)
38 38791873984189<$100	Arizona Stateavg 50¢	$20	$22	+$2	47% 3383-3741 (7124)
LI LimousinCTR<$100	UCFavg 46¢	$19.12	$21.2	+$2.08	37% 1064-1806 (2870)
VeryLucky888CTR<$100	UCFavg 47¢	$42.35	$16.75	-$5.65	54% 1525-1316 (2841)
65 6512395314597884CTR<$100	UCFavg 49.8¢	$12.55	$8.69	-$3.86	50% 3874-3873 (7747)
PA Pan9X<$100	Arizona Stateavg 55¢	$5.68	$6.77	+$1.08	49% 1694-1746 (3440)
GH ghorrockCTR<$100	UCFavg 45¢	$5	$5.67	+$0.67	53% 1938-1717 (3655)
RN1CTR<$100	UCFavg 51¢	$5.1	$3.45	-$1.65	55% 5525-4565 (10090)

glennyorkshire

Arizona State

Invested

$472.76

Value

$722.73

PnL

+$249.97

Record

45%

177-217 (394)

0x99F0d31fdced5B3A0e5Ee2867730A6644a6C9495-1779037126382CTR

UCF

Invested

$189.6

Value

$136.27

PnL

-$53.33

Record

47%

339-375 (714)

SnakeBallCTR

UCF

Invested

$106.36

Value

$120.54

PnL

+$14.18

Record

47%

985-1122 (2107)

Multicoloured-Serf

Arizona State

Invested

$100

Value

$110

PnL

+$10

Record

49%

650-689 (1339)

38791873984189<$100

Arizona State

Invested

$20

Value

$22

PnL

+$2

Record

47%

3383-3741 (7124)

LimousinCTR<$100

UCF

Invested

$19.12

Value

$21.2

PnL

+$2.08

Record

37%

1064-1806 (2870)

VeryLucky888CTR<$100

UCF

Invested

$42.35

Value

$16.75

PnL

-$5.65

Record

54%

1525-1316 (2841)

6512395314597884CTR<$100

UCF

Invested

$12.55

Value

$8.69

PnL

-$3.86

Record

50%

3874-3873 (7747)

Pan9X<$100

Arizona State

Invested

$5.68

Value

$6.77

PnL

+$1.08

Record

49%

1694-1746 (3440)

ghorrockCTR<$100

UCF

Invested

Value

$5.67

PnL

+$0.67

Record

53%

1938-1717 (3655)

RN1CTR<$100

UCF

Invested

$5.1

Value

$3.45

PnL

-$1.65

Record

55%

5525-4565 (10090)

Research grade

NeutralArizona State at 69%

Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

Smart Money Signal

Arizona State

4 of 11 top traders (36%)7 hold an outcome priced under 50%7 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Surging

-24 pts consensus

Breadth

4 traders

Top 2 hold 96%

Freshness

Mature

21h old

Flip Quality

Watch

1 consensus flip

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

36% of non-arb traders are on Arizona State. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 96% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

ctrUCF 71% · 7

Diverging

Hand-pickedUCF 100% · 2

Diverging

Top 1000UCF 60% · 10

Diverging

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Arizona State wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance71.0%

69.0¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.1¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$40.75

Max Loss

-$100.00

140.7

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.