Smart money holds the underdog side

Most tracked traders hold UCF, while the market favors Arizona State (56%). 6 of 11 traders hold an outcome priced under 50%.

Spread: Arizona State (-5.5)

6 of 11 top Polymarket traders hold UCF (55%) · UCF at 44¢ · $3K held · ended Nov 14

Arizona State56¢UCF44¢Ended Sat, Nov 14, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

UCF

Consensus Traders

UCF 55%

Total Value

$3.1K

Combined PnL

-$66.06

Smart Money Entry

60.2¢ → 43.5¢

-28% since entry · 6 traders

Research grade

NeutralUCF at 44%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Side priced 30–50¢Full year, out of sample: 0.30–0.50 lost −4.8 % a trade (n 16,830, 95 % CI −6.6 to −3.1), worse than the plain consensus.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

UCF

6 of 11 top traders (55%)Underdog side (market favors Arizona State 56%)6 hold an outcome priced under 50%3 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

Arizona State56%

UCF44%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

UCF6 traders

Total Value$1.7K

Total Shares3,110

Combined PnL-$377.77

Arizona State5 traders

Total Value$1.4K

Total Shares2,900

Combined PnL+$311.71

UCF — 55%Arizona State — 45%

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

6 traders

Top 2 hold 76%

Freshness

Fresh

0h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

75% of non-arb traders are on UCF. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 76% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

ctrArizona State 67% · 3

Diverging

Hand-pickedUCF 100% · 2

Aligned

Top 1000UCF 75% · 8

Aligned

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
RN1CTR	UCFavg 62.5¢	$1.2K	$1.0K	-$233.54	55% 5525-4565 (10090)
PR primm	Arizona Stateavg 38.8¢	$576.97	$721.08	+$144.11	60% 1016-678 (1694)
CM cm2897	Arizona Stateavg 33¢	$341.88	$492.1	+$150.22	49% 1187-1228 (2415)
0X 0x228B8d11EBa89BF1c554f8879a9293B7106DaF4c-1765442354872CTR	UCFavg 53¢	$759.58	$248.88	-$80.27	55% 1703-1404 (3107)
65 6512395314597884CTR	UCFavg 62¢	$248	$204	-$44	50% 3874-3873 (7747)
NA NatoAlfista	Arizona Stateavg 47.8¢	$153.98	$170.71	+$16.73	43% 198-262 (460)
TimeTravelerCTR	UCFavg 50.5¢	$101	$107	+$6	21% 21-81 (102)
38 38791873984189CTR	UCFavg 62¢	$121.52	$99.96	-$21.56	47% 3383-3741 (7124)
NO NotJump<$100	Arizona Stateavg 49¢	$24.5	$24.5	+$0	51% 917-874 (1791)
PA Pan9XCTR<$100	UCFavg 62¢	$24.8	$20.4	-$4.4	49% 1694-1746 (3440)
0X 0x6b25c5c4d1e681d2203297803793ad8c732b7a69<$100	Arizona Stateavg 36¢	$1.79	$2.44	+$0.65	50% 168-165 (333)

RN1CTR

UCF

Invested

$1,237.73

Value

$1.0K

PnL

-$233.54

Record

55%

5525-4565 (10090)

primm

Arizona State

Invested

$576.97

Value

$721.08

PnL

+$144.11

Record

60%

1016-678 (1694)

cm2897

Arizona State

Invested

$341.88

Value

$492.1

PnL

+$150.22

Record

49%

1187-1228 (2415)

0x228B8d11EBa89BF1c554f8879a9293B7106DaF4c-1765442354872CTR

UCF

Invested

$759.58

Value

$248.88

PnL

-$80.27

Record

55%

1703-1404 (3107)

6512395314597884CTR

UCF

Invested

$248

Value

$204

PnL

-$44

Record

50%

3874-3873 (7747)

NatoAlfista

Arizona State

Invested

$153.98

Value

$170.71

PnL

+$16.73

Record

43%

198-262 (460)

TimeTravelerCTR

UCF

Invested

$101

Value

$107

PnL

+$6

Record

21%

21-81 (102)

38791873984189CTR

UCF

Invested

$121.52

Value

$99.96

PnL

-$21.56

Record

47%

3383-3741 (7124)

NotJump<$100

Arizona State

Invested

$24.5

Value

$24.5

PnL

+$0

Record

51%

917-874 (1791)

Pan9XCTR<$100

UCF

Invested

$24.8

Value

$20.4

PnL

-$4.4

Record

49%

1694-1746 (3440)

0x6b25c5c4d1e681d2203297803793ad8c732b7a69<$100

Arizona State

Invested

$1.79

Value

$2.44

PnL

+$0.65

Record

50%

168-165 (333)

Research grade

NeutralUCF at 44%

Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Side priced 30–50¢Full year, out of sample: 0.30–0.50 lost −4.8 % a trade (n 16,830, 95 % CI −6.6 to −3.1), worse than the plain consensus.

Smart Money Signal

UCF

6 of 11 top traders (55%)Underdog side (market favors Arizona State 56%)6 hold an outcome priced under 50%3 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

6 traders

Top 2 hold 76%

Freshness

Fresh

0h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

75% of non-arb traders are on UCF. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 76% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

ctrArizona State 67% · 3

Diverging

Hand-pickedUCF 100% · 2

Aligned

Top 1000UCF 75% · 8

Aligned

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that UCF wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance45.7%

43.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.2¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$118.65

Max Loss

-$100.00

218.7

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.