Spread: Coastal Carolina (-1.5)

5 of 8 top Polymarket traders hold Arkansas State (63%) · Arkansas State at 52¢ · $47K held · ends Nov 14

Coastal Carolina49¢Arkansas State51¢Ends Sat, Nov 14, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Arkansas State

Consensus Traders

Arkansas State 63%

1 arb excluded

Total Value

$46.7K

Combined PnL

$114.29

Smart Money Entry

50¢ → 51.5¢

+3% since entry · 5 traders

Research grade

NeutralArkansas State at 52%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Side priced 50–60¢Full year, out of sample: 0.50–0.70 lost −2.9 % a trade (n 23,546, 95 % CI −3.9 to −1.9).

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Arkansas State

5 of 8 top traders (63%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed3 hold an outcome priced under 50%3 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

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Outcome Probabilities

Coastal Carolina49%

Arkansas State52%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Arkansas State5 traders

Total Value$18.1K

Total Shares36,189

Combined PnL+$8.39

Coastal Carolina3 traders

Total Value$10.7K

Total Shares21,180

Combined PnL+$105.9

Arkansas State — 63%Coastal Carolina — 37%

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
KE keeptheblueflagflyinghighARB<$100	Arkansas Stateavg 50¢	$27.5K	$17.9K	+$44.45	50% 2523-2479 (5002)
└ Arkansas State leg	Arkansas Stateavg 50¢	$9.7K	$10.0K	+$290.16
└ Coastal Carolina leg	Coastal Carolinaavg 50¢	$8.2K	$7.9K	-$245.71
MU Multicoloured-Serf	Arkansas Stateavg 50¢	$17.8K	$17.8K	+$0	49% 635-674 (1309)
FeedTheBigBirdCTR	Coastal Carolinaavg 50¢	$10.0K	$10.1K	+$100	63% 26-15 (41)
0X 0x760907C8840491c8C86fdDB843D3f1d801786C4e-1771959662080CTR	Coastal Carolinaavg 50¢	$400	$404	+$4	25% 341-1019 (1360)
LI LightParadox	Arkansas Stateavg 50¢	$264.26	$272.19	+$7.93	37% 960-1662 (2622)
0X 0x99F0d31fdced5B3A0e5Ee2867730A6644a6C9495-1779037126382CTR	Coastal Carolinaavg 50¢	$190	$191.9	+$1.9	48% 286-306 (592)
PA Pan9X<$100	Arkansas Stateavg 50¢	$22.5	$22.5	+$0	50% 1587-1614 (3201)
FO Forecastication2<$100	Arkansas Stateavg 50¢	$10	$10.3	+$0.3	45% 260-317 (577)
HO HomeRunHazard<$100	Arkansas Stateavg 50¢	$5.29	$5.45	+$0.16	56% 3687-2847 (6534)

keeptheblueflagflyinghighARB<$100

Arkansas State

Invested

$27,534.24

Value

$17.9K

PnL

+$44.45

Record

50%

2523-2479 (5002)

Both legs:

Arkansas State$9,672.0250¢+$290.16

Coastal Carolina$8,190.250¢-$245.71

Multicoloured-Serf

Arkansas State

Invested

$17,792.23

Value

$17.8K

PnL

+$0

Record

49%

635-674 (1309)

FeedTheBigBirdCTR

Coastal Carolina

Invested

$10,000

Value

$10.1K

PnL

+$100

Record

63%

26-15 (41)

0x760907C8840491c8C86fdDB843D3f1d801786C4e-1771959662080CTR

Coastal Carolina

Invested

$400

Value

$404

PnL

+$4

Record

25%

341-1019 (1360)

LightParadox

Arkansas State

Invested

$264.26

Value

$272.19

PnL

+$7.93

Record

37%

960-1662 (2622)

0x99F0d31fdced5B3A0e5Ee2867730A6644a6C9495-1779037126382CTR

Coastal Carolina

Invested

$190

Value

$191.9

PnL

+$1.9

Record

48%

286-306 (592)

Pan9X<$100

Arkansas State

Invested

$22.5

Value

$22.5

PnL

+$0

Record

50%

1587-1614 (3201)

Forecastication2<$100

Arkansas State

Invested

$10

Value

$10.3

PnL

+$0.3

Record

45%

260-317 (577)

HomeRunHazard<$100

Arkansas State

Invested

$5.29

Value

$5.45

PnL

+$0.16

Record

56%

3687-2847 (6534)

Research grade

NeutralArkansas State at 52%

Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Side priced 50–60¢Full year, out of sample: 0.50–0.70 lost −2.9 % a trade (n 23,546, 95 % CI −3.9 to −1.9).

Smart Money Signal

Arkansas State

5 of 8 top traders (63%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed3 hold an outcome priced under 50%3 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

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EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Arkansas State wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance53.7%

51.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.2¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$86.06

Max Loss

-$100.00

186.1

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.