Smart money holds the underdog side

Most tracked traders hold Over, while the market favors Under (53%). 6 of 10 traders hold an outcome priced under 50%.

Appalachian State vs. Marshall: O/U 55.5

6 of 10 top Polymarket traders hold Over (60%) · Over at 47¢ · $19K held · ends Nov 14

Over47¢Under53¢Ends Sat, Nov 14, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Over

Consensus Traders

Over 60%

4 arb excluded

Total Value

$19.2K

Combined PnL

$72.74

Smart Money Entry

46.3¢ → 47¢

+2% since entry · 6 traders

Research grade

NeutralOver at 47%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Side priced 30–50¢Full year, out of sample: 0.30–0.50 lost −4.8 % a trade (n 16,830, 95 % CI −6.6 to −3.1), worse than the plain consensus.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Over

6 of 10 top traders (60%)Underdog side (market favors Under 53%)4 arbitrage traders dimmed6 hold an outcome priced under 50%3 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

Over47%

Under53%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Over6 traders

Total Value$8.5K

Total Shares18,186

Combined PnL+$129.75

Under4 traders

Total Value$7.7K

Total Shares14,422

Combined PnL-$57

Over — 60%Under — 40%

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
MU Multicoloured-SerfCTR	Overavg 46.2¢	$7.6K	$7.7K	+$133.83	48% 636-676 (1312)
HI hi774c	Underavg 54¢	$3.3K	$3.2K	-$30.25	22% 179-619 (798)
nigiri99	Underavg 53.7¢	$2.2K	$2.2K	-$28.18	52% 573-538 (1111)
38 38791873984189ARB<$100	Underavg 53.4¢	$1.8K	$1.3K	+$11.67	48% 3273-3600 (6873)
└ Under leg	Underavg 53.4¢	$979.66	$982.26	+$8.71
└ Over leg	Overavg 46¢	$272.78	$275.75	+$2.97
VeryLucky888	Underavg 53.9¢	$1.7K	$1.2K	-$9.05	54% 1473-1278 (2751)
65 6512395314597884	Underavg 53¢	$1.1K	$1.1K	+$10.47	50% 3807-3776 (7583)
NM NM-PARB<$100	Underavg 54¢	$846.29	$841.46	-$4.82	59% 3799-2617 (6416)
└ Under leg	Underavg 54¢	$520.79	$515.96	-$4.82
└ Over leg	Overavg 46.5¢	$325.5	$325.5	+$0
GC GC-PARB<$100	Underavg 54¢	$745.86	$740.92	-$4.94	38% 395-632 (1027)
└ Under leg	Underavg 54¢	$472.5	$468.13	-$4.38
└ Over leg	Overavg 46.6¢	$273.36	$272.79	-$0.57
HO HomeRunHazardCTR	Overavg 47¢	$432.57	$427.97	-$4.6	56% 3687-2847 (6534)
LI LightParadoxCTR	Overavg 47¢	$345.88	$345.88	+$0	37% 1053-1783 (2836)
0X 0x99F0d31fdced5B3A0e5Ee2867730A6644a6C9495-1779037126382ARB<$100	Underavg 53.7¢	$118.21	$118.52	+$0.3	47% 312-350 (662)
└ Under leg	Underavg 53.7¢	$70.83	$70.62	-$0.21
└ Over leg	Overavg 46¢	$47.38	$47.9	+$0.52
SE sentrioCTR<$100	Overavg 46¢	$49.04	$49.57	+$0.53	42% 1051-1465 (2516)
0X 0x8g68hBa8tyH1946Bhjb674g3fuyUIGYUi4uhflksCTR<$100	Overavg 47¢	$16.92	$16.74	-$0.18	54% 286-244 (530)
MA MadridTimeCTR<$100	Overavg 46¢	$7.36	$7.52	+$0.16	38% 1060-1756 (2816)

Multicoloured-SerfCTR

Over

Invested

$7,560.39

Value

$7.7K

PnL

+$133.83

Record

48%

636-676 (1312)

hi774c

Under

Invested

$3,266.85

Value

$3.2K

PnL

-$30.25

Record

22%

179-619 (798)

nigiri99

Under

Invested

$2,194.29

Value

$2.2K

PnL

-$28.18

Record

52%

573-538 (1111)

38791873984189ARB<$100

Under

Invested

$1,760.95

Value

$1.3K

PnL

+$11.67

Record

48%

3273-3600 (6873)

Both legs:

Under$979.6653.4¢+$8.71

Over$272.7846¢+$2.97

VeryLucky888

Under

Invested

$1,720.31

Value

$1.2K

PnL

-$9.05

Record

54%

1473-1278 (2751)

6512395314597884

Under

Invested

$1,109.82

Value

$1.1K

PnL

+$10.47

Record

50%

3807-3776 (7583)

NM-PARB<$100

Under

Invested

$846.29

Value

$841.46

PnL

-$4.82

Record

59%

3799-2617 (6416)

Both legs:

Under$520.7954¢-$4.82

Over$325.546.5¢+$0

GC-PARB<$100

Under

Invested

$745.86

Value

$740.92

PnL

-$4.94

Record

38%

395-632 (1027)

Both legs:

Under$472.554¢-$4.38

Over$273.3646.6¢-$0.57

HomeRunHazardCTR

Over

Invested

$432.57

Value

$427.97

PnL

-$4.6

Record

56%

3687-2847 (6534)

LightParadoxCTR

Over

Invested

$345.88

Value

$345.88

PnL

+$0

Record

37%

1053-1783 (2836)

0x99F0d31fdced5B3A0e5Ee2867730A6644a6C9495-1779037126382ARB<$100

Under

Invested

$118.21

Value

$118.52

PnL

+$0.3

Record

47%

312-350 (662)

Both legs:

Under$70.8353.7¢-$0.21

Over$47.3846¢+$0.52

sentrioCTR<$100

Over

Invested

$49.04

Value

$49.57

PnL

+$0.53

Record

42%

1051-1465 (2516)

0x8g68hBa8tyH1946Bhjb674g3fuyUIGYUi4uhflksCTR<$100

Over

Invested

$16.92

Value

$16.74

PnL

-$0.18

Record

54%

286-244 (530)

MadridTimeCTR<$100

Over

Invested

$7.36

Value

$7.52

PnL

+$0.16

Record

38%

1060-1756 (2816)

Research grade

NeutralOver at 47%

Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Side priced 30–50¢Full year, out of sample: 0.30–0.50 lost −4.8 % a trade (n 16,830, 95 % CI −6.6 to −3.1), worse than the plain consensus.

Smart Money Signal

Over

6 of 10 top traders (60%)Underdog side (market favors Under 53%)4 arbitrage traders dimmed6 hold an outcome priced under 50%3 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Over wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance49.2%

47.0¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.2¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$103.05

Max Loss

-$100.00

203.1

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.