Smart money holds the underdog side

Most tracked traders hold Under, while the market favors Over (55%). 7 of 10 traders hold an outcome priced under 50%.

Alabama vs. Vanderbilt: O/U 37.5

7 of 10 top Polymarket traders hold Under (70%) · Under at 45¢ · $2K held · ended Nov 14

Over55¢Under45¢Ended Sat, Nov 14, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Under

Consensus Traders

Under 70%

1 arb excluded

Total Value

$2.4K

Combined PnL

$338.5

Smart Money Entry

38.1¢ → 45¢

+18% since entry · 7 traders

Research grade

NeutralUnder at 45%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Side priced 30–50¢Full year, out of sample: 0.30–0.50 lost −4.8 % a trade (n 16,830, 95 % CI −6.6 to −3.1), worse than the plain consensus.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Under

7 of 10 top traders (70%)Underdog side (market favors Over 55%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed7 hold an outcome priced under 50%6 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

Over55%

Under45%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Over3 traders

Total Value$986.36

Total Shares1,652

Combined PnL+$217.21

Under7 traders

Total Value$1.0K

Total Shares2,384

Combined PnL+$121.29

Over — 30%Under — 70%

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
SU SunflowaRebuildYear	Overavg 46¢	$656.88	$849.65	+$192.78	11% 58-463 (521)
RN1CTR	Underavg 54¢	$435.24	$439.27	+$4.03	55% 5402-4371 (9773)
38 38791873984189ARB<$100	Overavg 79¢	$985.48	$399.62	-$332.45	48% 3239-3552 (6791)
└ Over leg	Overavg 79¢	$351.3	$202.33	-$334.26
└ Under leg	Underavg 54¢	$195.48	$197.29	+$1.81
MA MadridTimeCTR	Underavg 21¢	$210	$315.08	+$105.08	38% 1014-1686 (2700)
65 6512395314597884CTR	Underavg 54¢	$108	$109	+$1	50% 3807-3775 (7582)
PA Pan9XCTR<$100	Underavg 54.1¢	$83.62	$84.22	+$0.6	50% 1594-1620 (3214)
PR primm<$100	Overavg 59¢	$69.68	$71.45	+$1.77	59% 931-653 (1584)
0X 0x228B8d11EBa89BF1c554f8879a9293B7106DaF4c-1765442354872<$100	Overavg 39.2¢	$42.6	$65.26	+$22.66	55% 1630-1336 (2966)
OM omnibus-076daaCTR<$100	Underavg 41¢	$48.42	$49.01	+$0.59	46% 499-596 (1095)
VE VenusianCTR<$100	Underavg 22¢	$22	$31.5	+$9.5	37% 991-1715 (2706)
LI LightParadoxCTR<$100	Underavg 21¢	$1	$1.5	+$0.5	37% 1002-1720 (2722)

SunflowaRebuildYear

Over

Invested

$656.88

Value

$849.65

PnL

+$192.78

Record

11%

58-463 (521)

RN1CTR

Under

Invested

$435.24

Value

$439.27

PnL

+$4.03

Record

55%

5402-4371 (9773)

38791873984189ARB<$100

Over

Invested

$985.48

Value

$399.62

PnL

-$332.45

Record

48%

3239-3552 (6791)

Both legs:

Over$351.379¢-$334.26

Under$195.4854¢+$1.81

MadridTimeCTR

Under

Invested

$210

Value

$315.08

PnL

+$105.08

Record

38%

1014-1686 (2700)

6512395314597884CTR

Under

Invested

$108

Value

$109

PnL

+$1

Record

50%

3807-3775 (7582)

Pan9XCTR<$100

Under

Invested

$83.62

Value

$84.22

PnL

+$0.6

Record

50%

1594-1620 (3214)

primm<$100

Over

Invested

$69.68

Value

$71.45

PnL

+$1.77

Record

59%

931-653 (1584)

0x228B8d11EBa89BF1c554f8879a9293B7106DaF4c-1765442354872<$100

Over

Invested

$42.6

Value

$65.26

PnL

+$22.66

Record

55%

1630-1336 (2966)

omnibus-076daaCTR<$100

Under

Invested

$48.42

Value

$49.01

PnL

+$0.59

Record

46%

499-596 (1095)

VenusianCTR<$100

Under

Invested

$22

Value

$31.5

PnL

+$9.5

Record

37%

991-1715 (2706)

LightParadoxCTR<$100

Under

Invested

Value

$1.5

PnL

+$0.5

Record

37%

1002-1720 (2722)

Research grade

NeutralUnder at 45%

Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Side priced 30–50¢Full year, out of sample: 0.30–0.50 lost −4.8 % a trade (n 16,830, 95 % CI −6.6 to −3.1), worse than the plain consensus.

Smart Money Signal

Under

7 of 10 top traders (70%)Underdog side (market favors Over 55%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed7 hold an outcome priced under 50%6 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

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EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Under wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance47.2%

45.0¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.2¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$111.68

Max Loss

-$100.00

211.7

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.