Spread: Alabama (-6.5)

4 of 10 top Polymarket traders hold Alabama (40%) · Alabama at 56¢ · $3K held · ended Nov 14

Alabama56¢Vanderbilt44¢Ended Sat, Nov 14, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Alabama

Consensus Traders

Alabama 40%

1 arb excluded

Total Value

$2.7K

Combined PnL

-$40.75

Smart Money Entry

73¢ → 56.5¢

-23% since entry · 4 traders

Research grade

NeutralAlabama at 56%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Side priced 50–60¢Full year, out of sample: 0.50–0.70 lost −2.9 % a trade (n 23,546, 95 % CI −3.9 to −1.9).

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Alabama

4 of 10 top traders (40%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed6 hold an outcome priced under 50%5 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

Alabama56%

Vanderbilt44%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Alabama4 traders

Total Value$1.3K

Total Shares1,804

Combined PnL-$15.4

Vanderbilt6 traders

Total Value$727.12

Total Shares2,672

Combined PnL-$25.35

Alabama — 40%Vanderbilt — 60%

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

2 traders

Top 2 hold 100%

Freshness

Fresh

0h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

29% of non-arb traders are on Alabama. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 100% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

ctrVanderbilt 75% · 4

Diverging

Top 1000Vanderbilt 71% · 7

Diverging

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
38 38791873984189	Alabamaavg 72.3¢	$907.72	$774.21	-$16.17	48% 3231-3545 (6776)
RN1ARB<$100	Alabamaavg 70¢	$751.85	$700.05	-$51.8	55% 5380-4339 (9719)
└ Alabama leg	Alabamaavg 70¢	$583.1	$528.96	-$54.14
└ Vanderbilt leg	Vanderbiltavg 36¢	$168.75	$171.09	+$2.34
PU purplegatto	Alabamaavg 74.7¢	$465.54	$464.14	-$1.4	68% 2645-1233 (3878)
PR primmCTR	Vanderbiltavg 30¢	$374.5	$355.97	-$18.54	59% 931-653 (1584)
LI LimousinCTR	Vanderbiltavg 27¢	$264.28	$244.7	-$19.58	36% 950-1657 (2607)
0X 0x228B8d11EBa89BF1c554f8879a9293B7106DaF4c-1765442354872CTR	Vanderbiltavg 25¢	$94.21	$107.4	+$13.19	55% 1630-1336 (2966)
65 6512395314597884<$100	Alabamaavg 70¢	$49	$49.35	+$0.35	50% 3807-3775 (7582)
PA Pan9X<$100	Alabamaavg 70¢	$22.2	$13.52	+$1.82	50% 1593-1619 (3212)
AM AmericaFirst1CTR<$100	Vanderbiltavg 30¢	$12.69	$12.06	-$0.63	47% 99-111 (210)
GH ghorrockCTR<$100	Vanderbiltavg 26.5¢	$5.34	$5.75	+$0.4	53% 1809-1607 (3416)
FO Forecastication2CTR<$100	Vanderbiltavg 29¢	$1.45	$1.25	-$0.2	45% 261-317 (578)

38791873984189

Alabama

Invested

$907.72

Value

$774.21

PnL

-$16.17

Record

48%

3231-3545 (6776)

RN1ARB<$100

Alabama

Invested

$751.85

Value

$700.05

PnL

-$51.8

Record

55%

5380-4339 (9719)

Both legs:

Alabama$583.170¢-$54.14

Vanderbilt$168.7536¢+$2.34

purplegatto

Alabama

Invested

$465.54

Value

$464.14

PnL

-$1.4

Record

68%

2645-1233 (3878)

primmCTR

Vanderbilt

Invested

$374.5

Value

$355.97

PnL

-$18.54

Record

59%

931-653 (1584)

LimousinCTR

Vanderbilt

Invested

$264.28

Value

$244.7

PnL

-$19.58

Record

36%

950-1657 (2607)

0x228B8d11EBa89BF1c554f8879a9293B7106DaF4c-1765442354872CTR

Vanderbilt

Invested

$94.21

Value

$107.4

PnL

+$13.19

Record

55%

1630-1336 (2966)

6512395314597884<$100

Alabama

Invested

$49

Value

$49.35

PnL

+$0.35

Record

50%

3807-3775 (7582)

Pan9X<$100

Alabama

Invested

$22.2

Value

$13.52

PnL

+$1.82

Record

50%

1593-1619 (3212)

AmericaFirst1CTR<$100

Vanderbilt

Invested

$12.69

Value

$12.06

PnL

-$0.63

Record

47%

99-111 (210)

ghorrockCTR<$100

Vanderbilt

Invested

$5.34

Value

$5.75

PnL

+$0.4

Record

53%

1809-1607 (3416)

Forecastication2CTR<$100

Vanderbilt

Invested

$1.45

Value

$1.25

PnL

-$0.2

Record

45%

261-317 (578)

Research grade

NeutralAlabama at 56%

Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Side priced 50–60¢Full year, out of sample: 0.50–0.70 lost −2.9 % a trade (n 23,546, 95 % CI −3.9 to −1.9).

Smart Money Signal

Alabama

4 of 10 top traders (40%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed6 hold an outcome priced under 50%5 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

2 traders

Top 2 hold 100%

Freshness

Fresh

0h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

29% of non-arb traders are on Alabama. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 100% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

ctrVanderbilt 75% · 4

Diverging

Top 1000Vanderbilt 71% · 7

Diverging

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Alabama wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance58.7%

56.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.2¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$70.29

Max Loss

-$100.00

170.3

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.