Spread: Alabama (-11.5)

7 of 13 top Polymarket traders hold Alabama (54%) · Alabama at 83¢ · $4K held · ended Nov 14

Alabama83¢Vanderbilt17¢Ended Sat, Nov 14, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Alabama

Consensus Traders

Alabama 54%

3 arb excluded

Total Value

$4.0K

Combined PnL

$60.28

Smart Money Entry

52.2¢ → 82.5¢

+58% since entry · 7 traders

Research grade

NeutralAlabama at 83%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Alabama

7 of 13 top traders (54%)3 arbitrage traders dimmed6 hold an outcome priced under 50%7 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

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Outcome Probabilities

Alabama83%

Vanderbilt18%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Alabama7 traders

Total Value$1.2K

Total Shares1,824

Combined PnL+$267.89

Vanderbilt6 traders

Total Value$803.86

Total Shares2,296

Combined PnL-$207.61

Alabama — 54%Vanderbilt — 46%

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
RN1ARB<$100	Vanderbiltavg 53.4¢	$1.2K	$1.1K	-$64.03	55% 5402-4371 (9773)
└ Vanderbilt leg	Vanderbiltavg 53.4¢	$741.48	$673.32	-$68.15
└ Alabama leg	Alabamaavg 51¢	$420.75	$424.88	+$4.13
38 38791873984189ARB<$100	Alabamaavg 56.4¢	$923.05	$779.41	-$68.66	48% 3239-3552 (6791)
└ Alabama leg	Alabamaavg 56.4¢	$620.39	$566.98	-$70.85
└ Vanderbilt leg	Vanderbiltavg 48¢	$210.24	$212.43	+$2.19
BI biying88888	Alabamaavg 51¢	$300.39	$412.3	+$111.91	44% 203-260 (463)
0X 0x84e01e855165C5d56DE153c96DCC3B9bCe727F3D-1782704499041	Alabamaavg 52¢	$250	$399.04	+$149.04	29% 11-27 (38)
LI LimousinCTR	Vanderbiltavg 38¢	$264.15	$389.27	+$125.12	36% 975-1701 (2676)
65 6512395314597884	Alabamaavg 53.7¢	$322	$303	-$19	50% 3807-3775 (7582)
ST stackingsatsCTR	Vanderbiltavg 49¢	$542.57	$188.24	-$354.33	9% 19-188 (207)
VE VenusianCTR	Vanderbiltavg 41.7¢	$75.05	$100.74	+$25.69	37% 991-1715 (2706)
NA NatoAlfista<$100	Alabamaavg 52¢	$45.76	$73.04	+$27.28	43% 185-243 (428)
PA Pan9XARB<$100	Alabamaavg 50.2¢	$82.42	$69.12	-$1.35	50% 1594-1620 (3214)
└ Alabama leg	Alabamaavg 50.2¢	$44.67	$45.84	+$1.16
└ Vanderbilt leg	Vanderbiltavg 49.7¢	$23.84	$23.28	-$2.52
PR primmCTR<$100	Vanderbiltavg 41¢	$82	$62	-$20	59% 931-653 (1584)
LI LightParadoxCTR<$100	Vanderbiltavg 42¢	$44.94	$59.92	+$14.98	37% 1002-1720 (2722)
NO NotJump<$100	Alabamaavg 50¢	$19.6	$20	+$0.4	51% 850-801 (1651)
0X 0x228B8d11EBa89BF1c554f8879a9293B7106DaF4c-1765442354872<$100	Alabamaavg 50¢	$18	$18.18	+$0.18	55% 1630-1336 (2966)
GH ghorrock<$100	Alabamaavg 63¢	$6.35	$4.44	-$1.92	53% 1811-1610 (3421)
AM AmericaFirst1CTR<$100	Vanderbiltavg 42¢	$2.77	$3.69	+$0.92	47% 99-111 (210)

RN1ARB<$100

Vanderbilt

Invested

$1,162.23

Value

$1.1K

PnL

-$64.03

Record

55%

5402-4371 (9773)

Both legs:

Vanderbilt$741.4853.4¢-$68.15

Alabama$420.7551¢+$4.13

38791873984189ARB<$100

Alabama

Invested

$923.05

Value

$779.41

PnL

-$68.66

Record

48%

3239-3552 (6791)

Both legs:

Alabama$620.3956.4¢-$70.85

Vanderbilt$210.2448¢+$2.19

biying88888

Alabama

Invested

$300.39

Value

$412.3

PnL

+$111.91

Record

44%

203-260 (463)

0x84e01e855165C5d56DE153c96DCC3B9bCe727F3D-1782704499041

Alabama

Invested

$250

Value

$399.04

PnL

+$149.04

Record

29%

11-27 (38)

LimousinCTR

Vanderbilt

Invested

$264.15

Value

$389.27

PnL

+$125.12

Record

36%

975-1701 (2676)

6512395314597884

Alabama

Invested

$322

Value

$303

PnL

-$19

Record

50%

3807-3775 (7582)

stackingsatsCTR

Vanderbilt

Invested

$542.57

Value

$188.24

PnL

-$354.33

Record

19-188 (207)

VenusianCTR

Vanderbilt

Invested

$75.05

Value

$100.74

PnL

+$25.69

Record

37%

991-1715 (2706)

NatoAlfista<$100

Alabama

Invested

$45.76

Value

$73.04

PnL

+$27.28

Record

43%

185-243 (428)

Pan9XARB<$100

Alabama

Invested

$82.42

Value

$69.12

PnL

-$1.35

Record

50%

1594-1620 (3214)

Both legs:

Alabama$44.6750.2¢+$1.16

Vanderbilt$23.8449.7¢-$2.52

primmCTR<$100

Vanderbilt

Invested

$82

Value

$62

PnL

-$20

Record

59%

931-653 (1584)

LightParadoxCTR<$100

Vanderbilt

Invested

$44.94

Value

$59.92

PnL

+$14.98

Record

37%

1002-1720 (2722)

NotJump<$100

Alabama

Invested

$19.6

Value

$20

PnL

+$0.4

Record

51%

850-801 (1651)

0x228B8d11EBa89BF1c554f8879a9293B7106DaF4c-1765442354872<$100

Alabama

Invested

$18

Value

$18.18

PnL

+$0.18

Record

55%

1630-1336 (2966)

ghorrock<$100

Alabama

Invested

$6.35

Value

$4.44

PnL

-$1.92

Record

53%

1811-1610 (3421)

AmericaFirst1CTR<$100

Vanderbilt

Invested

$2.77

Value

$3.69

PnL

+$0.92

Record

47%

99-111 (210)

Research grade

NeutralAlabama at 83%

Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

Smart Money Signal

Alabama

7 of 13 top traders (54%)3 arbitrage traders dimmed6 hold an outcome priced under 50%7 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

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EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Alabama wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance84.2%

82.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.7¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$18.78

Max Loss

-$100.00

118.8

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.