Smart money holds the underdog side

Most tracked traders hold Alabama, while the market favors Vanderbilt (62%). 5 of 9 traders hold an outcome priced under 50%.

Historically, consensus on sides priced under 40¢ lost money after costs.

Spread: Alabama (-10.5)

5 of 9 top Polymarket traders hold Alabama (56%) · Alabama at 39¢ · $4K held · ended Nov 14

Alabama39¢Vanderbilt61¢Ended Sat, Nov 14, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Alabama

Consensus Traders

Alabama 56%

Total Value

$3.7K

Combined PnL

-$221.76

Smart Money Entry

58.6¢ → 38.5¢

-34% since entry · 5 traders

Research grade

NeutralAlabama at 39%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Side priced 30–50¢Full year, out of sample: 0.30–0.50 lost −4.8 % a trade (n 16,830, 95 % CI −6.6 to −3.1), worse than the plain consensus.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Alabama

5 of 9 top traders (56%)Underdog side (market favors Vanderbilt 62%)5 hold an outcome priced under 50%2 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

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Outcome Probabilities

Alabama39%

Vanderbilt62%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Alabama5 traders

Total Value$2.5K

Total Shares4,313

Combined PnL-$208.23

Vanderbilt4 traders

Total Value$1.2K

Total Shares3,050

Combined PnL-$13.53

Alabama — 56%Vanderbilt — 44%

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
RN1CTR	Alabamaavg 57.8¢	$1.1K	$902.99	-$197.3	55% 5380-4339 (9719)
38 38791873984189CTR	Alabamaavg 62.3¢	$761.2	$720.56	-$40.65	48% 3231-3545 (6776)
PR primm	Vanderbiltavg 43.5¢	$769.1	$716.85	-$52.25	59% 931-653 (1584)
65 6512395314597884CTR	Alabamaavg 57.4¢	$487.41	$496.64	+$9.22	50% 3807-3775 (7582)
0X 0x228B8d11EBa89BF1c554f8879a9293B7106DaF4c-1765442354872CTR	Alabamaavg 55¢	$275	$295	+$20	55% 1630-1336 (2966)
LI LightParadox	Vanderbiltavg 39¢	$264.28	$277.83	+$13.55	37% 977-1669 (2646)
VE Venusian	Vanderbiltavg 36¢	$195.3	$222.42	+$27.12	37% 968-1674 (2642)
PA Pan9XCTR<$100	Alabamaavg 55.8¢	$38.37	$38.86	+$0.48	50% 1593-1619 (3212)
AM AmericaFirst1<$100	Vanderbiltavg 43.8¢	$26.14	$24.18	-$1.96	47% 99-111 (210)

RN1CTR

Alabama

Invested

$1,100.28

Value

$902.99

PnL

-$197.3

Record

55%

5380-4339 (9719)

38791873984189CTR

Alabama

Invested

$761.2

Value

$720.56

PnL

-$40.65

Record

48%

3231-3545 (6776)

primm

Vanderbilt

Invested

$769.1

Value

$716.85

PnL

-$52.25

Record

59%

931-653 (1584)

6512395314597884CTR

Alabama

Invested

$487.41

Value

$496.64

PnL

+$9.22

Record

50%

3807-3775 (7582)

0x228B8d11EBa89BF1c554f8879a9293B7106DaF4c-1765442354872CTR

Alabama

Invested

$275

Value

$295

PnL

+$20

Record

55%

1630-1336 (2966)

LightParadox

Vanderbilt

Invested

$264.28

Value

$277.83

PnL

+$13.55

Record

37%

977-1669 (2646)

Venusian

Vanderbilt

Invested

$195.3

Value

$222.42

PnL

+$27.12

Record

37%

968-1674 (2642)

Pan9XCTR<$100

Alabama

Invested

$38.37

Value

$38.86

PnL

+$0.48

Record

50%

1593-1619 (3212)

AmericaFirst1<$100

Vanderbilt

Invested

$26.14

Value

$24.18

PnL

-$1.96

Record

47%

99-111 (210)

Research grade

NeutralAlabama at 39%

Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Side priced 30–50¢Full year, out of sample: 0.30–0.50 lost −4.8 % a trade (n 16,830, 95 % CI −6.6 to −3.1), worse than the plain consensus.

Smart Money Signal

Alabama

5 of 9 top traders (56%)Underdog side (market favors Vanderbilt 62%)5 hold an outcome priced under 50%2 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Alabama wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance40.7%

38.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.2¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$145.73

Max Loss

-$100.00

245.7

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.