Spread: LSU (-5.5)

6 of 9 top Polymarket traders hold Alabama (67%) · Alabama at 74¢ · $9K held · ended Nov 7

LSU26¢Alabama74¢Ended Sat, Nov 7, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Alabama

Consensus Traders

Alabama 67%

1 arb excluded

Total Value

$8.7K

Combined PnL

$48.65

Smart Money Entry

48.1¢ → 74¢

+54% since entry · 6 traders

Research grade

NeutralAlabama at 74%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Alabama

6 of 9 top traders (67%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed3 hold an outcome priced under 50%3 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

LSU26%

Alabama74%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

LSU3 traders

Total Value$3.0K

Total Shares5,848

Combined PnL-$29.72

Alabama6 traders

Total Value$5.1K

Total Shares10,668

Combined PnL+$78.37

LSU — 33%Alabama — 67%

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

6 traders

Top 2 hold 68%

Freshness

Late

80h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationBalanced

67% of non-arb traders are on Alabama. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 68% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

whaleAlabama 75% · 4

Aligned

ctrLSU 60% · 5

Diverging

Top 1000Alabama 67% · 9

Aligned

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
JA JAMJAMJAM4CTR	LSUavg 52¢	$5.7K	$2.9K	-$28.28	55% 3746-3060 (6806)
HO HomeRunHazard	Alabamaavg 48.6¢	$1.8K	$1.8K	+$18.44	54% 18479-15550 (34029)
PU purplegatto	Alabamaavg 47.7¢	$1.7K	$1.7K	+$53.02	49% 6379-6554 (12933)
MU Multicoloured-Serf	Alabamaavg 48¢	$1.4K	$1.4K	-$0	48% 405-446 (851)
NM NM-PARB<$100	Alabamaavg 48¢	$518	$518	+$1.75	64% 10182-5720 (15902)
└ Alabama leg	Alabamaavg 48¢	$336	$336	+$3.5
└ LSU leg	LSUavg 52¢	$182	$182	-$1.75
38 38791873984189	Alabamaavg 47.8¢	$314.36	$176.06	+$3.98	48% 62396-67251 (129647)
SN SnakeBall	Alabamaavg 47¢	$103.87	$106.08	+$3.32	51% 38228-37447 (75675)
0X 0x1ba747eaed3e0e798922523dbed29693bcf767a1CTR<$100	LSUavg 52.7¢	$99.51	$98.1	-$1.41	46% 930-1099 (2029)
GH ghorrock<$100	Alabamaavg 47.6¢	$19.02	$16.78	-$0.39	58% 21689-15792 (37481)
nigiri99CTR<$100	LSUavg 52.7¢	$2.11	$2.08	-$0.03	46% 8770-10463 (19233)

JAMJAMJAM4CTR

LSU

Invested

$5,655

Value

$2.9K

PnL

-$28.28

Record

55%

3746-3060 (6806)

HomeRunHazard

Alabama

Invested

$1,793.5

Value

$1.8K

PnL

+$18.44

Record

54%

18479-15550 (34029)

purplegatto

Alabama

Invested

$1,687.66

Value

$1.7K

PnL

+$53.02

Record

49%

6379-6554 (12933)

Multicoloured-Serf

Alabama

Invested

$1,358.16

Value

$1.4K

PnL

-$0

Record

48%

405-446 (851)

NM-PARB<$100

Alabama

Invested

$518

Value

$518

PnL

+$1.75

Record

64%

10182-5720 (15902)

Both legs:

Invested

$314.36

Value

$176.06

PnL

+$3.98

Record

48%

62396-67251 (129647)

SnakeBall

Alabama

Invested

$103.87

Value

$106.08

PnL

+$3.32

Record

51%

38228-37447 (75675)

0x1ba747eaed3e0e798922523dbed29693bcf767a1CTR<$100

LSU

Invested

$99.51

Value

$98.1

PnL

-$1.41

Record

46%

930-1099 (2029)

ghorrock<$100

Alabama

Invested

$19.02

Value

$16.78

PnL

-$0.39

Record

58%

21689-15792 (37481)

nigiri99CTR<$100

LSU

Invested

$2.11

Value

$2.08

PnL

-$0.03

Record

46%

8770-10463 (19233)

Research grade

NeutralAlabama at 74%

Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

Smart Money Signal

Alabama

6 of 9 top traders (67%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed3 hold an outcome priced under 50%3 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

6 traders

Top 2 hold 68%

Freshness

Late

80h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationBalanced

67% of non-arb traders are on Alabama. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 68% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

whaleAlabama 75% · 4

Aligned

ctrLSU 60% · 5

Diverging

Top 1000Alabama 67% · 9

Aligned

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Alabama wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance75.9%

74.0¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.9¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$31.69

Max Loss

-$100.00

131.7

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.