Smart money holds the underdog side

Most tracked traders hold Alabama, while the market favors LSU (57%). 5 of 9 traders hold an outcome priced under 50%.

Spread: LSU (-3.5)

5 of 9 top Polymarket traders hold Alabama (56%) · Alabama at 43¢ · $6K held · ended Nov 7

LSU57¢Alabama43¢Ended Sat, Nov 7, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Alabama

Consensus Traders

Alabama 56%

2 arb excluded

Total Value

$6.1K

Combined PnL

-$219.5

Smart Money Entry

44.8¢ → 42.5¢

-5% since entry · 5 traders

Research grade

NeutralAlabama at 43%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Side priced 30–50¢Full year, out of sample: 0.30–0.50 lost −4.8 % a trade (n 16,830, 95 % CI −6.6 to −3.1), worse than the plain consensus.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Alabama

5 of 9 top traders (56%)Underdog side (market favors LSU 57%)2 arbitrage traders dimmed5 hold an outcome priced under 50%5 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

LSU57%

Alabama43%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Alabama5 traders

Total Value$4.5K

Total Shares10,689

Combined PnL-$246.61

LSU4 traders

Total Value$973.79

Total Shares1,628

Combined PnL+$27.11

Alabama — 56%LSU — 44%

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
PR primmCTR	Alabamaavg 44.8¢	$4.4K	$4.2K	-$227.7	47% 1317-1506 (2823)
38 38791873984189	LSUavg 55¢	$955.25	$888.72	+$29.9	48% 63191-68207 (131398)
65 6512395314597884ARB<$100	LSUavg 54.9¢	$439.03	$410.56	-$28.46	51% 5014-4884 (9898)
└ LSU leg	LSUavg 54.9¢	$311.03	$325.56	+$14.54
└ Alabama leg	Alabamaavg 64¢	$128	$85	-$43
RollAwayTheDewCTR	Alabamaavg 44.7¢	$225.45	$214.17	-$11.28	54% 542-460 (1002)
0X 0x228B8d11EBa89BF1c554f8879a9293B7106DaF4c-1765442354872ARB<$100	Alabamaavg 70.8¢	$218.12	$154.79	-$63.33	56% 8738-6795 (15533)
└ Alabama leg	Alabamaavg 70.8¢	$168.93	$101.43	-$67.51
└ LSU leg	LSUavg 53¢	$49.19	$53.37	+$4.18
0X 0xdbdd45150249e229eB4cA8aa48A30Dca21Faa5de-1757094771846CTR	Alabamaavg 45¢	$112.5	$106.25	-$6.25	59% 33715-23828 (57543)
PA Pan9X<$100	LSUavg 53.7¢	$78.91	$43.45	-$6.81	54% 10485-8797 (19282)
RN1<$100	LSUavg 51.6¢	$34.95	$38.94	+$4	53% 63014-55227 (118241)
nigiri99CTR<$100	Alabamaavg 50.7¢	$9.14	$7.65	-$1.49	46% 8770-10464 (19234)
OD OddstormCTR<$100	Alabamaavg 41¢	$2.87	$2.98	+$0.1	48% 7452-7984 (15436)
HO HomeRunHazard<$100	LSUavg 57¢	$2.65	$2.67	+$0.02	54% 18557-15589 (34146)

primmCTR

Alabama

Invested

$4,439.27

Value

$4.2K

PnL

-$227.7

Record

47%

1317-1506 (2823)

38791873984189

LSU

Invested

$955.25

Value

$888.72

PnL

+$29.9

Record

48%

63191-68207 (131398)

6512395314597884ARB<$100

LSU

Invested

$439.03

Value

$410.56

PnL

-$28.46

Record

51%

5014-4884 (9898)

Both legs:

LSU$311.0354.9¢+$14.54

Alabama$12864¢-$43

RollAwayTheDewCTR

Alabama

Invested

$225.45

Value

$214.17

PnL

-$11.28

Record

54%

542-460 (1002)

0x228B8d11EBa89BF1c554f8879a9293B7106DaF4c-1765442354872ARB<$100

Alabama

Invested

$218.12

Value

$154.79

PnL

-$63.33

Record

56%

8738-6795 (15533)

Both legs:

Alabama$168.9370.8¢-$67.51

LSU$49.1953¢+$4.18

0xdbdd45150249e229eB4cA8aa48A30Dca21Faa5de-1757094771846CTR

Alabama

Invested

$112.5

Value

$106.25

PnL

-$6.25

Record

59%

33715-23828 (57543)

Pan9X<$100

LSU

Invested

$78.91

Value

$43.45

PnL

-$6.81

Record

54%

10485-8797 (19282)

RN1<$100

LSU

Invested

$34.95

Value

$38.94

PnL

+$4

Record

53%

63014-55227 (118241)

nigiri99CTR<$100

Alabama

Invested

$9.14

Value

$7.65

PnL

-$1.49

Record

46%

8770-10464 (19234)

OddstormCTR<$100

Alabama

Invested

$2.87

Value

$2.98

PnL

+$0.1

Record

48%

7452-7984 (15436)

HomeRunHazard<$100

LSU

Invested

$2.65

Value

$2.67

PnL

+$0.02

Record

54%

18557-15589 (34146)

Research grade

NeutralAlabama at 43%

Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Side priced 30–50¢Full year, out of sample: 0.30–0.50 lost −4.8 % a trade (n 16,830, 95 % CI −6.6 to −3.1), worse than the plain consensus.

Smart Money Signal

Alabama

5 of 9 top traders (56%)Underdog side (market favors LSU 57%)2 arbitrage traders dimmed5 hold an outcome priced under 50%5 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Alabama wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance44.7%

42.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.2¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$123.57

Max Loss

-$100.00

223.6

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.