Smart money holds the underdog side

Most tracked traders hold Air Force, while the market favors Army (53%). 6 of 9 traders hold an outcome priced under 50%.

Spread: Army (-3.5)

6 of 9 top Polymarket traders hold Air Force (67%) · Air Force at 48¢ · $13K held · ends Nov 8

Army53¢Air Force47¢Ends Sun, Nov 8, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Air Force

Consensus Traders

Air Force 67%

2 arb excluded

Total Value

$13.0K

Combined PnL

$83.09

Smart Money Entry

50.4¢ → 47.5¢

-6% since entry · 6 traders

Research grade

NeutralAir Force at 48%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Side priced 30–50¢Full year, out of sample: 0.30–0.50 lost −4.8 % a trade (n 16,830, 95 % CI −6.6 to −3.1), worse than the plain consensus.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Air Force

6 of 9 top traders (67%)Underdog side (market favors Army 53%)2 arbitrage traders dimmed6 hold an outcome priced under 50%1 small position dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

Army53%

Air Force48%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Army3 traders

Total Value$4.6K

Total Shares8,835

Combined PnL+$234.72

Air Force6 traders

Total Value$4.8K

Total Shares9,825

Combined PnL-$151.64

Army — 33%Air Force — 67%

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

6 traders

Top 2 hold 63%

Freshness

Mature

18h old

Flip Quality

Watch

1 consensus flip

Breadth vs concentrationBalanced

67% of non-arb traders are on Air Force. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 63% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

whaleArmy 50% · 2

Diverging

ctrAir Force 71% · 7

Aligned

Top 1000Air Force 67% · 9

Aligned

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
HO HomeRunHazardARB<$100	Air Forceavg 51.9¢	$3.4K	$3.3K	-$148.8	54% 18479-15550 (34029)
└ Air Force leg	Air Forceavg 51.9¢	$2.4K	$2.3K	-$158.88
└ Army leg	Armyavg 51.4¢	$1.0K	$1.0K	+$10.09
MU Multicoloured-Serf	Armyavg 49.8¢	$3.1K	$3.3K	+$115.92	48% 405-446 (851)
nigiri99CTR	Air Forceavg 49.7¢	$2.2K	$2.1K	-$32.51	46% 8770-10463 (19233)
RollAwayTheDew	Armyavg 47.7¢	$946.73	$1.0K	+$89.23	54% 540-457 (997)
PL pltrkr111CTR	Air Forceavg 53¢	$1,000	$924.53	-$84.91	55% 790-658 (1448)
65 6512395314597884CTR	Air Forceavg 49.7¢	$769.74	$758.14	-$7.73	51% 5012-4882 (9894)
38 38791873984189CTR	Air Forceavg 50.3¢	$1.2K	$507.49	-$21.26	48% 62396-67251 (129647)
AU Aurelius7CTR	Air Forceavg 49.7¢	$507.65	$500	-$5.1	47% 274-313 (587)
NM NM-PARB<$100	Air Forceavg 52¢	$360.5	$351.75	-$10.5	64% 10182-5720 (15902)
└ Army leg	Armyavg 51¢	$178.5	$180.25	+$1.75
└ Air Force leg	Air Forceavg 52¢	$182	$171.5	-$12.25
HI hi774c	Armyavg 46¢	$247.4	$276.98	+$29.58	46% 5316-6151 (11467)
RL RLWGCTR<$100	Air Forceavg 51¢	$2.55	$2.45	-$0.13	50% 8436-8484 (16920)

HomeRunHazardARB<$100

Air Force

Invested

$3,430.51

Value

$3.3K

PnL

-$148.8

Record

54%

18479-15550 (34029)

Both legs:

Air Force$2,394.2151.9¢-$158.88

Army$1,036.2951.4¢+$10.09

Multicoloured-Serf

Army

Invested

$3,144.15

Value

$3.3K

PnL

+$115.92

Record

48%

405-446 (851)

nigiri99CTR

Air Force

Invested

$2,157.15

Value

$2.1K

PnL

-$32.51

Record

46%

8770-10463 (19233)

RollAwayTheDew

Army

Invested

$946.73

Value

$1.0K

PnL

+$89.23

Record

54%

540-457 (997)

pltrkr111CTR

Air Force

Invested

$1,000

Value

$924.53

PnL

-$84.91

Record

55%

790-658 (1448)

6512395314597884CTR

Air Force

Invested

$769.74

Value

$758.14

PnL

-$7.73

Record

51%

5012-4882 (9894)

38791873984189CTR

Air Force

Invested

$1,180.75

Value

$507.49

PnL

-$21.26

Record

48%

62396-67251 (129647)

Aurelius7CTR

Air Force

Invested

$507.65

Value

$500

PnL

-$5.1

Record

47%

274-313 (587)

NM-PARB<$100

Air Force

Invested

$360.5

Value

$351.75

PnL

-$10.5

Record

64%

10182-5720 (15902)

Both legs:

Army$178.551¢+$1.75

Air Force$18252¢-$12.25

hi774c

Army

Invested

$247.4

Value

$276.98

PnL

+$29.58

Record

46%

5316-6151 (11467)

RLWGCTR<$100

Air Force

Invested

$2.55

Value

$2.45

PnL

-$0.13

Record

50%

8436-8484 (16920)

Research grade

NeutralAir Force at 48%

Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Side priced 30–50¢Full year, out of sample: 0.30–0.50 lost −4.8 % a trade (n 16,830, 95 % CI −6.6 to −3.1), worse than the plain consensus.

Smart Money Signal

Air Force

6 of 9 top traders (67%)Underdog side (market favors Army 53%)2 arbitrage traders dimmed6 hold an outcome priced under 50%1 small position dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

6 traders

Top 2 hold 63%

Freshness

Mature

18h old

Flip Quality

Watch

1 consensus flip

Breadth vs concentrationBalanced

67% of non-arb traders are on Air Force. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 63% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

whaleArmy 50% · 2

Diverging

ctrAir Force 71% · 7

Aligned

Top 1000Air Force 67% · 9

Aligned

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Air Force wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance49.7%

47.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.2¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$101.01

Max Loss

-$100.00

201.0

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.