Utebo FC vs. CE Sabadell FC: O/U 1.5

6 of 9 top Polymarket traders hold Over (67%) · Over at 60¢ · $890 held · ended Nov 4

Over60¢Under40¢Ended Wed, Nov 4, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Over

Consensus Traders

Over 67%

Total Value

$890.4

Combined PnL

-$341.61

Smart Money Entry

55¢ → 60¢

+9% since entry · 6 traders

Research grade

NeutralOver at 60%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Over

6 of 9 top traders (67%)3 hold an outcome priced under 50%4 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

Over60%

Under40%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Under3 traders

Total Value$507.35

Total Shares1,079

Combined PnL-$22.22

Over6 traders

Total Value$383.05

Total Shares1,277

Combined PnL-$319.39

Under — 33%Over — 67%

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

6 traders

Top 2 hold 52%

Freshness

Fresh

0h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationBalanced

67% of non-arb traders are on Over. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 52% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

The hand-picked list (1 on Under) and the top 1000 (8 on Over) disagree here.

whaleOver 100% · 1

Aligned

sharpUnder 100% · 1

Diverging

ctrUnder 75% · 4

Diverging

Hand-pickedUnder 100% · 1

Diverging

Top 1000Over 75% · 8

Aligned

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
TO topdogbigboiCTR	Underavg 50.9¢	$498.34	$460	-$38.34	47% 11082-12418 (23500)
VE Venusian	Overavg 51.2¢	$173.08	$101.46	-$71.61	52% 1162-1079 (2241)
FL Flaznorp	Overavg 69.5¢	$230.65	$99.51	-$131.14	51% 24233-22959 (47192)
LI LightParadox	Overavg 49.1¢	$162.7	$99.5	-$63.2	52% 1149-1045 (2194)
LI Limousin	Overavg 48.9¢	$124.22	$76.28	-$47.94	54% 1193-1031 (2224)
VeryLucky888CTR<$100	Underavg 31¢	$31	$44.65	+$15.15	58% 45442-32918 (78360)
MA MadridTime<$100	Overavg 48.2¢	$6.27	$3.9	-$2.37	51% 1095-1048 (2143)
rayvanmechelenCTR<$100	Underavg 30¢	$1.72	$2.7	+$0.98	74% 2423-864 (3287)
HRTrading<$100	Overavg 69.1¢	$5.53	$2.4	-$3.13	51% 7653-7369 (15022)

topdogbigboiCTR

Under

Invested

$498.34

Value

$460

PnL

-$38.34

Record

47%

11082-12418 (23500)

Venusian

Over

Invested

$173.08

Value

$101.46

PnL

-$71.61

Record

52%

1162-1079 (2241)

Flaznorp

Over

Invested

$230.65

Value

$99.51

PnL

-$131.14

Record

51%

24233-22959 (47192)

LightParadox

Over

Invested

$162.7

Value

$99.5

PnL

-$63.2

Record

52%

1149-1045 (2194)

Limousin

Over

Invested

$124.22

Value

$76.28

PnL

-$47.94

Record

54%

1193-1031 (2224)

VeryLucky888CTR<$100

Under

Invested

$31

Value

$44.65

PnL

+$15.15

Record

58%

45442-32918 (78360)

MadridTime<$100

Over

Invested

$6.27

Value

$3.9

PnL

-$2.37

Record

51%

1095-1048 (2143)

rayvanmechelenCTR<$100

Under

Invested

$1.72

Value

$2.7

PnL

+$0.98

Record

74%

2423-864 (3287)

HRTrading<$100

Over

Invested

$5.53

Value

$2.4

PnL

-$3.13

Record

51%

7653-7369 (15022)

Research grade

NeutralOver at 60%

Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

Smart Money Signal

Over

6 of 9 top traders (67%)3 hold an outcome priced under 50%4 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

6 traders

Top 2 hold 52%

Freshness

Fresh

0h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationBalanced

67% of non-arb traders are on Over. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 52% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

The hand-picked list (1 on Under) and the top 1000 (8 on Over) disagree here.

whaleOver 100% · 1

Aligned

sharpUnder 100% · 1

Diverging

ctrUnder 75% · 4

Diverging

Hand-pickedUnder 100% · 1

Diverging

Top 1000Over 75% · 8

Aligned

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Over wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance62.2%

60.0¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.2¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$60.80

Max Loss

-$100.00

160.8

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.