Will CF Trival Valderas win on 2026-10-28?
9 of 9 top Polymarket traders hold No (100%) · No at 96¢ · $3K held · ends Nov 10
⚖️
Neutral
No
9
No 100%
$3.2K
-$6.39
95.9¢ → 95.8¢
+0% since entry · 9 traders
Research grade
NeutralNo at 96%
No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).
- Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
9 of 9 top traders (100%)4 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
Signal Intelligence
Momentum
Surging
+0 pts consensus
Breadth
6 traders
Top 2 hold 81%
Freshness
Fresh
1h old
Flip Quality
Clean
0 consensus flips
100% of non-arb traders are on No. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 81% of that side's value.
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
FL Flaznorp | Noavg 95.8¢ | $1.2K | $1.2K | -$0.75 | 52% 242-227 (469) |
LU LuckyLoo | Noavg 96.1¢ | $1.1K | $1.1K | -$4.37 | 47% 35-39 (74) |
VE Venusian | Noavg 96.2¢ | $362.44 | $360.6 | -$1.84 | 24% 84-270 (354) |
LI LightParadox | Noavg 95.9¢ | $208.48 | $208.17 | -$0.31 | 26% 89-254 (343) |
MA MadridTime | Noavg 95.8¢ | $152.86 | $152.78 | -$0.08 | 25% 88-264 (352) |
LI Limousin<$100 | Noavg 95.8¢ | $97.04 | $96.99 | -$0.05 | 24% 90-284 (374) |
 rayvanmechelen<$100 | Noavg 93¢ | $21.5 | $20.73 | +$0.73 | 1% 1-141 (142) |
SE sentrio<$100 | Noavg 94.3¢ | $15.3 | $14.58 | +$0.15 | 23% 49-166 (215) |
 VeryLucky888<$100 | Noavg 95.9¢ | $47.97 | $9.58 | +$0.13 | 48% 61-65 (126) |
Invested
$1,201.83
Value
$1.2K
PnL
-$0.75
Record
52%
242-227 (469)
Invested
$1,137.48
Value
$1.1K
PnL
-$4.37
Record
47%
35-39 (74)
Invested
$362.44
Value
$360.6
PnL
-$1.84
Record
24%
84-270 (354)
Invested
$208.48
Value
$208.17
PnL
-$0.31
Record
26%
89-254 (343)
Invested
$152.86
Value
$152.78
PnL
-$0.08
Record
25%
88-264 (352)
Invested
$97.04
Value
$96.99
PnL
-$0.05
Record
24%
90-284 (374)
rayvanmechelen<$100Invested
$21.5
Value
$20.73
PnL
+$0.73
Record
1%
1-141 (142)
Invested
$15.3
Value
$14.58
PnL
+$0.15
Record
23%
49-166 (215)
VeryLucky888<$100Invested
$47.97
Value
$9.58
PnL
+$0.13
Record
48%
61-65 (126)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
95.8¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.2¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.